Tandem Share Discussion Threads

[darrin1471] 13/12/2023 08:08

I also tried a sneaky buy and nothing available

[castleford tiger] 13/12/2023 08:07

trying to buy but cannot

[babbler] 13/12/2023 07:53

70p pre open.

[castleford tiger] 13/12/2023 07:23

Not great reading but we hope this is the low point and we can build from here.

tiger

[amt] 11/12/2023 15:37

Interesting share price movement over at Character Group

[davidosh] 07/12/2023 10:28

I think there must be some bottom fishing going on

[thorpematt] 29/11/2023 22:37

More of the same: -

Cycling industry 'most turbulent it's been for 30 years' as major UK chain posts £1.6m loss

[darrin1471] 29/11/2023 21:39

Old news (17/11/2023) but I only saw it today:
"Halfords makes rescue bid for Wiggle"

[rcturner2] 29/11/2023 11:02

Poor results at Halfords today probably read across to Tandem.

[darrin1471] 18/11/2023 12:20

Moathunter, Its was interesting to read your thoughts. I did read your post several times.
The consolidation of the rented warehouses onto a single site was planned pre covid and makes financial sense. Renting out part of the new warehouse(I assume short term) indicates a turnaround in volumes should not be expected anytime soon.
Bike sales were less than 19% of revenue in 2022, 25% in 2021 and 31% in 2020. This is adult's and children's bikes. I would agree that adult bikes in the price point TND sell too is going to be a long road to partial recovery. Children's bikes are different as they grow out of them every few years.
I don't see much evidence of TND overstocking post covid and they already have a broad range of product that all did well during lockdown. It would be expensive to expand into new sectors already served by other importers. eMobility is a good long term area for organic growth.
Currys Nordic business has been hurt by a similar phenomenon where consumer electronics did well during lockdown and exceptional profits were made. Smaller competitors used the profits to expand inventory to gain market share just as demand started to weaken and the cost of financing inventory rocketed. The resulting market wide stock clearance resulted in unprofitable sales and the closure of competitors.
With hindsight it is easy to see predict the future. Anybody able to predict the future will do well when picking shares.
I hold no position in TND.

[hpcg] 18/11/2023 01:14

Moathunter - 5719, well written. The 5 year chart says it all. I took this off my watchlist a long time ago, but I find it is worthwhile and low overhead to monitor this board. In the circumstances there is investor interest in TND other companies will do much better, so it's a good sentiment indicator. Unless it has severe financial difficulties in which case it loses that signalling capacity.

[thorpematt] 17/11/2023 16:07

MRF

Capitulation?

[my retirement fund] 17/11/2023 15:33

I've removed TND from my long term following watch list. Frankly I'm sick of reading about it. Good fortune!

[moathunter] 16/11/2023 09:54

Just a few thoughts:
A one sentence summary of TND could be "the moons aligned for TND during a once in 100 year social experiment (lockdown) which caused toys, leisure goods, gardening equipment and bicycle sales to skyrocket; they greatly expanded warehousing and onshoring(!).... to now realise they'll be under-utilising warehousing and so renting out (and other indicators of struggle)."
Assets are only worth the cash flows they can generate (or their market resale value).

One third of TND's revenue- bike sales- is likely to remain very low for 4+ years:
## it's a narrative fallacy to think 'the survivors in the bike industry will do well.' The bike industry is very fragmented, especially at the distributor and retailer end with many competitors. This fragmentation means even if 30% of competitors go under, the survivors will at best have proportionate uplift in sales but it will still be a small uplift because of the fragmentation.
More likely, bike sales will be subdued for 5+ years and when they do pick up, low entry barriers (causing industry fragmentation) mean new rivals will quickly enter in 2028.

## Second reason bike sales (and extending to some other sport and leisure- so around 70% of TND revenue!!) will remain very low for 4+ years is down to consumers. Covid saw around 5-7 years of normal bike sales time-shifted squeezed into just 1-2 years, as masses of people got outdoors and stimulus handouts and forced saving enabled spending on hobbies.
But there is only so much space in the garage for bikes, the majority only have need for one bike, a majority never touch their bike now, most bike owners keep the bike for 5-15 yrs... so the whole bike ecosystem is now stuffed full of bikes (channel-stuffing manufacturers, distributors unable to offlosd stock to retailers who now don't want orders (or gone under), second hand markets awash with bikes, garages and flats full of bikes (and same with sport and leisure goods for TND).
I've 2 decades road & MTB cycling experience, so know a little about the market and consumer.

So it's staggering that TND and the cycle industry at large never thought "our industry has constrained supply and a massive surge in demand with Covid... let's *not* place orders as though this is the new normal, projecting it into the future.
Instead, lets counter-intuitively place orders and manufacture at slightly below pre-Covid levels, because the micro-economics of each individual consumer means we won't see normal sales levels for some years now. And instead, we have to find alternative revenue sources to fill this cycle (and sports leisure) void."

Instead, TND just like everyone else in 2020/21/22 expanded their cycle and sports product range, ramped up digital marketing and management systems and doubled warehouse capacity...and now cannot receive the manufactured goods and don't have the orders they hoped for and instead resorting to renting warehousing- well, that's the alternate revenue source to fill the cycle and sport void!!

TND have optimised their business for a demand 50% larger (50% higher sales than £27m), and so the previously touted cost savings from developments in 2020/21/22 will prove illusory, as they're now counteracted by under-utilisation (of staff, of systems, of storage, of cost per product line, of cost per retail and manufacturer relationships).
Cue 'rationalisation/ streamlining' of all these areas next "to align to the new market environment" in 2023/24.
Crazy.

[castleford tiger] 31/10/2023 19:07

ACTS

I found it but thanks

[castleford tiger] 31/10/2023 10:31

ACTS

Where is that information from?
please
tiger

[actscap] 31/10/2023 08:00

So looks like TND took the plunge and will start renting out its warehouse space. They could have done this earlier imo.

[davidosh] 30/10/2023 17:11

Competitors are falling like nine pins which is sad for the industry but the survivors will certainly gain a large slice of market share...

[1tx] 30/10/2023 12:22

I noticed that Pashley Cycles,the specialist Stratford upon Avon based bike manufacturer who have been in business for around 100 years,have indicated that they intend to raise additional capital to expand on Seedrs Funding Platform.Pashley presently is owned by the same person who owns Moulton Bicycle Company.

[jeff h] 27/10/2023 12:34

Tandem has a Barbie licence.

[actscap] 27/10/2023 11:55

And another...https://www.islabikes.co.uk/pages/cease-of-sale

[castleford tiger] 27/10/2023 11:29

hxxps://www.bikeradar.com/news/wiggle-appoints-administrators/

confirmed

hxxps://bikebiz.com/islabikes-to-cease-production-of-bikes/


latest infomation.

SQUISH should gain from this

tiger

[castleford tiger] 24/10/2023 14:54

Europe's bicycle imports hit hard by excess inventory | As Signa Sports crumbles bicycle entities drop like dominos

The pain continues but those left should do ok

tiger

[thorpematt] 21/10/2023 00:21

Yes quite so. Evans cycles previously and Wiggle/ Chain reaction are huge in the industry.

Shimano (a true Q company) also having trouble with its delaminaing crank issue and a huge associated cost.

Mavic in France (one of the worlds best wheel makers for bikes - often very high end) also needing a bale out.

A truly extraordinary turnaround of fortunes for cycle distrubutors and related. The pandemic after shock still prevails.

Personally I find it extraordinary that in a time when cyling is supposed to be thriving that the industry is struggling so.

In many regards the woes of Tandem over the last year or two look positive by comparison and it may be that in that context the management have done pretty well.

FWIW I don't hold any stock...but i do know quite a bit about bikes!

[davidosh] 20/10/2023 16:16

A report by Cycling Electric (a sister publication of Cyclist magazine) states that, effective immediately, online mega-retailer Wiggle has been forced to enter self-administration: basically, a mechanism by which a company that is no longer solvent can continue to operate while self-managing the reorganization of its finances and its businesses. This was precipitated by the sudden loss of a €150m equity commitment to Wiggle’s parent company, Signa Sports United, from one of its shareholder affiliates that was originally supposed to provide funding through the end of September 2025. Signa Sports stated the equity commitment termination was “unjustified,” but that unfortunately doesn’t change the company’s suddenly dire financial situation.
While much of the cycling industry enjoyed a massive pandemic-fueled boom over the past few years as an exploding portion of the public sought refuge in outdoor activity, the post-pandemic crash has been equally severe. According to a notice filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission in the United States, that €150m equity line “constituted the basis of Management’s going concern and liquidity assumptions.” Its withdrawal may have been the straw that broke the camel’s back, but the company’s financial troubles – both Wiggle’s directly and its parent’s – had been growing severe for months.
According to reporting by Cycling Electric, Wiggle posted losses in 2023 of £97m pre-tax just as of August, and that’s on top of £14.5m of losses last year and another £14.5m spent on its web site and online systems in April.
Wiggle’s parent company, Signa Sports United, began publicly trading on the New York Stock Exchange in late 2021 after a SPAC merger with WiggleCRC, the company created from the 2016 combination of online bike sellers Wiggle and Chain Reaction Cycles. SSU, which claims to be the world’s largest online bike retailer, traded as high as $10.25 a share immediately after going public, but has lost 99 percent of its value since and closed today at just $0.03. The company warned of increasing challenges in its 2022 earnings report. The steepest downturn in its stock has come since August, and on October 2 the company posted a notice to the SEC register with its plans to re-structure, citing “subdued demand and market overstock.” A week later, and only days before losing its equity line, the company also filed plans to delist from the NYSE.