Tclarke Share Discussion Threads

[jab118] 19/1/2011 09:58

Mark
anytime now, would be a good time IMO all you have to do is part with your cash.

go on mate you know you want in ;-)

[mark1000] 19/1/2011 01:09

hvs - Agreed just a question of when to buy

[hvs] 18/1/2011 11:05

Mark1000

Thank you for your above post.

Feel raw material prices will be manageable.

Hope you decide to buy when you feel right. I think there is recovery potential here.

[jab118] 18/1/2011 10:55

This could turn Northwards on a sixpence IMO., house builders picking up so no reason why this latest profit warning will be a mere blip..;-)

[bonsaisumo2] 17/1/2011 17:12

Sadly, "Screaming buy" often means screaming "bye to one's money", as I found out to my cost when dealing with one particular firm of stockbrokers in the past. I am a long-term holder, and it pains me that this share has not taken off for a long long time. I live in hope, though, and just maybe in the future they will reward us with a special dividend again.

[goliard] 17/1/2011 14:29

I expected this to fall more today. Should be interesting to see what the end of week price is.

[mark1000] 17/1/2011 00:41

hvs - Large order books are great if they have large margins - if as the RNS says the margins are small then a large order book although preferable to a small order book with low margins is not so great. Management know they are in for a tough ride but at least with a strong balance sheet they are not a Connaught or Rok. Problem for them is that commodity prices like copper and oil prices are rising rapidly making wafer thin margins even thinner. The new business acquired in the year probably accounts for some of that order increase.

The dividend cut has been on the horizon for a number of years the company cannot continue to pay out more than it earns so the re-based dividend will probably be say 50% of EPS rather than say 8.5p per share. On that basis they may take 12p as the budgeted EPS and pay a 2p interim with the final dividend pending the actual results. I guess the share is unlikely to fall below 85p yielding 7% on the assumed 6p dividend and equally rise above 110p with a prospective dividend of 5.4% so I would like to buy these shares for my ISA nearer 85p than 110p. Management are doing the right thing and so deserve to be supported by the shareholders.

[zastas] 16/1/2011 22:00

Connaught and Rok also had huge forward contracts/orderbooks. Yet they collapsed quickly. Only cash profit and hard assets are security.

[hvs] 16/1/2011 17:57

Did you look at their forward ordrer book ?

[chrisg] 16/1/2011 17:51

I'm with Wilmdav (post 692). The TS stated that they would cut this year's final divi and ALSO rebase their dividend policy. Two separate things. They would not have used the word "also" if they were simply going to maintain the divi at 8.5p. Don't forget that this is a conservatively run company, which has historically run with cash surplusses, so whether they halve the interim divi, or rebase the whole policy to, say, a fixed proportion of annual earnings (so they retain cash in the business) remains to be seen, but one thing is for sure and that is that these will NOT be showing an 8% yield going forward beyond the 2010 divi.

With 2010 to be below forecast and the company stating that 2011 could show even lower profits, I really don't think these have reached the bottom yet.

Yes, 2012 could/should be better, but the main Olympics benefit should be in 2011, when they finish their work on the stadium. Its the fit-out companies who will benefit from the Olympics in 2012.

[hvs] 16/1/2011 17:29

Wait for it then.

Cause I is adding.

[huttonr] 16/1/2011 17:25

With a 'below expectations' result due in March and the present construction climate - it seems to me that it is likely to stay down at this level or go lower in the next few months. Probably a buy at say 80/90p??

[hvs] 15/1/2011 15:09

Doubt it.

Order book is strong and divi will still be 8% of current share price

Dont forget they spent £ 18 mill last year and businesses doing well.

SECREAMING BUY.

[whilstev] 15/1/2011 14:16

Think we would be best served waiting for the dust to settle with this one before charging back in. Can see it being much more of a bargain in a months time. Possibly around the 70p level.

[jab118] 15/1/2011 14:07

Hi Chaps

On a more serious note, I see today that the Daily Mail have published a small write up on CTO as a "shock profit warning" and I must admit it was a shock to me also, however IMO., it's only going to be short lived. So with total conviction I added more although my ISA ATM looks pretty sick as that's where I have most of my CTO shares.

One thing is for shore if this well run company, had to announce a profit warning then others in this sector with have worse to come in the future.

So it was a HOLD & BUY more for me yesterday...

[topvest] 15/1/2011 09:15

Disappointing news. 2012 should be better with the Olympics and pick-up in activity, so they are quite well placed medium term. I'm a holder of mine.

[jonwig] 15/1/2011 07:52

Hi David.

Yes, I see how your interpretation goes. The company will no doubt nudge brokers with appropriate guidance on this, but whatever ... it will be some time before a 13p dividend is paid again!

[wilmdav] 15/1/2011 00:42

Hi Jonwig

I have what for me is quite a large slug of these (3.8% of folio) and was not surprised by the gist of today's announcement for the reasons you gave - and am more than happy to hold.

There is another interpretation of "it is the Board's intention to reduce the final dividend to a level equal to that of the interim payment. It is also the Board's intention to rebase its dividend policy."

It could mean 4.25p would remain as final div for 2011 but the interim would be 2.125p. However that is clearly not what Panmure are expecting and it will be interesting to see what emerges from revised forecasts.

[jonwig] 14/1/2011 18:44

A comparison with another sector company, SFR, might be useful.

UK sector leader (structural steel), earlier stage stuff than CTO, now 50% up on its 2010 lows. Yet not forecasting UK recovery any time soon. Part of rise due no doubt to prospects in India (JV formed, now operating) but also attrition of competitors ... "last man standing".

[gre] 14/1/2011 18:00

Following on from jonwig's post 684 above I see that Panmure Gordon have reduced their pre-tax profit forecast from £7m down to £6.5m for 2010. That's hardly a disaster and personally I'd be quite happy with that figure in the circumstances.

[hvs] 14/1/2011 17:38

Why sell when its already down ?

Just like anal ysts issuing sell notes when the share has already been smashed.

When they are are on a high they say BUY.

I dont see much downside here, infact a GOLDEN OPPORTUNITY.

[goliard] 14/1/2011 16:13

It is exactly this ambiguity, concern and vagueness that I also believe will lead to there being more sellers in coming weeks. I certainly wouldn't short this, but am loathed to buy yet.

[spaceparallax] 14/1/2011 15:31

It baffles me why companies issue such ambiguous TSs. There are positive and negatives in the TS, but the reference to below mkt expectations is so vague as to be worrying - one wonders why there was no qualifier e.g. marginally. Given the reduced broker TP, I expect a tough few weeks for the share price where stop-losses are triggered to take us below 100p. How much below is anyones's guess, but given the new TP of C£1, I'd guess we could dip briefly as low as 80p.

[bench2] 14/1/2011 15:21

Re shorting , I can envisage a few pr client shorts but no hedge funds etc . Mkt cap circa only £44m and not easy to cover and most institutions will not lend this stock out and if they do the daily rate will be very high. Post Prov Financial hedge funds licking their wounds . My view is the board will want to live with a 35% cut div for now so new annual div will be 8.5p with Sep interim at 2.75p ( 4.25p), so only 7p cash divs to be paid out until next years final payable in May 2012. This gives the co some welcome breathing space to see whether margins can recover . I will base the yield on 8.5p as the new base with modest increases EPS dependant but no early return to 13p. This a very well respected but cyclical elec contractor with a superb bal sheet inc a very valuable freehold in the increasingly trendy east end of London. There will be plenty of buyers on a 10% yield basis at 85p so don't get too greedy .

[jab118] 14/1/2011 13:52

OK hands up all shorts loosing their skirts ;-)