Sylvania Platinum Share Discussion Threads

[rabiddog] 02/5/2023 08:18

Bout 280ish million shares in circulation so assuming £0.95 a share its just under 4% of total shares. It’ll put a floor on the price for sure.

[nickwild] 02/5/2023 08:07

hardly massive

[wsm812] 02/5/2023 08:04

Massive share buy-back scheme announced. Nothing better than the compnay buying it's own (short-supply) stock to boost it's value.....hold tight and don't sell.

[bountyhunter] 29/4/2023 15:33

You're quite right Haywards, the Kitko chart doesn't show the recent Rhodium prise rise, the chart on this page does...

[masurenguy] 29/4/2023 11:42

You're right - I was referring to this years profit. Liberum think next years will be circa £24m. Your figure of £17.5m is based upon extrapolating all 4 quarters as being at the same level. This does not reflect past ratios but then nobody can be certain at this stage how next year will play out.

[stemis] 28/4/2023 18:49

We are obviously talking about different things. I'm talking about the current run rate of profitability. In Q3 it was $7.8m (pre sales adjustment), so deducting 30% tax and using $/£ 1.25, that's £4.3m or annualised £17.5m.

You are talking about what you think the declared profit for the year will be so you might be right, but what is relevant to valuation is current profitability levels.

[kennyp52] 28/4/2023 17:58

average BBI for the 6 months to 31/12/22
= $2,413 per pgm oz

30/07/2022 = $2,479
31/08/2022 = $2,625
30/09/2022 = $2,464
31/10/2022 = $2,345
30/11/2022 = $2,355
30/12/2022 = $2,212

So it doesn’t take a lot or working out that basket is down circa $600 on H1 … say 38k Oz = $23mn plus slightly lower H2 targeted production. I don’t think you are far out Masurenguy

[kennyp52] 28/4/2023 17:50

Copied from JLP board


average BBI (so far) for the 6 months to 30/06/23
= $1,837 per pgm oz

27/01/2023 = $2,143
28/02/2023 = $1,769
31/03/2023 = $1,633
28/04/2023 = $1,802

Starting to rise and even at this average at the ounces they are producing they are churning a lot of free cashflow

[masurenguy] 28/4/2023 17:38

They made a PAT of £26m in the first half of the current year so my 22/23 figure above is based upon a second half reduction of circa 65% to £9m. So what is your projected PAT for the current year?

Liberum are projecting a decline in PAT to circa £24m next year, which is nearly a downturn of 32%. Rhodium prices turned up recently but nobody at this stage can be certain of how that will play out next year.

[stemis] 28/4/2023 15:47

It isn't making £35m at current prices levels

[masurenguy] 28/4/2023 15:33

At 93p, the company has a market cap of circa £263m, which includes cash of £115m. The current EV is therefore £148m with PAT of £35m, which looks like pretty good value to me before you even factor in the yield.

[haywards26] 28/4/2023 14:28

I will feel much happier once Rhodium is $10k + :)

That Kitco chart above is flat lining when in reality the Rhodium price has been rising nicely over the last few days.

[death by donut] 28/4/2023 12:51

YesDbD :-)

[wsm812] 28/4/2023 12:36

DRIP = Dividend Re-Investment Profits?

[death by donut] 28/4/2023 12:24

From an extremely small holder position , I just like getting divis on divis. DRIP definitely paid off for me on SLP.DbD :-)

[wsm812] 28/4/2023 12:08

Surely all SLP holders are obsessed with the Rhodium price! haha

[justiceforthemany] 28/4/2023 12:07

With so much cash on its books hopefully the dividend will come in at 9p for the full year.

[justiceforthemany] 28/4/2023 12:07

Those obsessed with Rhodium price here will be pleased to hear it is up near $9,000 now
Cash adjusted P/E is around 4.5

[marksp2011] 28/4/2023 11:23

Thanks Davebowler

Sadly not a fan of Liberum and they are the House Broker. But, I do think the share price is a bit low for what is on offer here.

[stemis] 28/4/2023 09:41

When revenue falls there is a release of cash from working capital. It is one of the reasons (which I've mentioned before) that SLP is a big disingenuous in claiming it needs to hold so much cash in case of a fall in the basket price (and profits). Should the basket price recover then cash would initially drop as working capital increases to reflect the delay in receipt of sales.

[davebowler] 28/4/2023 09:38

Liberum

| SLP LN | Market Cap £236.7m | 28 April 2023^ BUYTarget Price 125.0p Publication price 89.0p Sylvania Platinum* Guidance raised again *Corporate Broking Client of Liberum
Sylvania has raised production guidance by 2koz to 7274koz (Liberum est. 74koz), following another strong production quarter of 17.9koz. Even with the raise, guidance appears conservative: Q3’s typically weak, as mines are slow to restart post December’s break; final quarter only requires 15.6k-17.6koz of production. Note, production rates across the industry face the risk of more Eskom power disruptions (for revenues, any general fall in mine supply should be offset by corresponding price lift). Strong quarter of production with Tweefontein MF2 The company had a good quarter of production, and so remains firmly on track to hit our forecast of 74koz for the year. The multiyear positive trend in recoveries continues. Following the success of the MF2 installation at Tweefontein, the one at Lannex should be commissioned in the first quarter of FY23. Figure 1: Quarterly production (koz) and recovery rates (%) 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 Q1FY08 Q3FY08 Q1FY09 Q3FY09 Q1FY10 Q3FY10 Q1FY11 Q3FY11 Q1FY12 Q3FY12 Q1FY13 Q3FY13 Q1FY14 Q3FY14 Q1FY15 Q3FY15 Q1FY16 Q3FY16 Q1FY17 Q3FY17 Q1FY18 Q3FY18 Q1FY19 Q3FY19 Q1FY20 Q3FY20 Q1FY21 Q3FY21 Q1FY22 Q3FY22 Q1FY23 Q3FY23 Total 4E PGMsPGM Plant Recovery Source: company While this successful run could be hit by power disruptions ahead of the Southern winter, we believe that the price impact will offset volume losses.

Next events Q3 resultsApril 2023 Q4 resultsJuly 2023 Stock performance Summary financials & valuation ($m) Calendar year EV (CY)21A22E23E24E Market Cap295295295295 Net Debt/(Cash)(114)(136)(149)(155) Pension & other adj.0.00.00.00.0 EV182160146140 Valuation (CY)21A22E23E24E P/E (x)3.86.08.09.6 Div Yield (%)10.110.88.46.2 EV/Sales (x)1.01.21.31.4 EV/EBITDA (x)1.62.22.73.0 EV/EBIT (x)1.62.32.83.2 FCFe Yield (%)19.120.415.59.8 Price / book (x)1.21.11.11.1 Financial year (June year end) Financials (FY)22A23E24E25E Sales152123100102 EBITDA81.763.846.547.9 EBIT78.760.743.444.9 EBIT Margin (%)51.849.143.344.2 Net Interest1.33.74.34.5 PBT80.064.347.749.4 FD EPS ($)0.20.20.10.1 DPS (p)10.39.06.05.0 Net Debt/(Cash)(121)(150)(148)(162) Net Debt/EBITDA (x)(1.5)(2.4)(3.2)(3.4) Leverage (FY)22A23E24E25E Net Debt/Mkt Cap (x)(0.4)(0.5)(0.5)(0.5) Source: Liberum, Bloomberg All numbers are on a post-IFRS 16 basis (e.g. net debt includes operating leases)
Sylvania Platinum 28 April 2023 2 Feed tonnes were impacted in the quarter, as is typical for Q3, particularly higher-grade tonnes from current arisings and ROM material. Figure 2: Plant feed tonnes and grades (g/t) 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000 Q1FY08 Q3FY08 Q1FY09 Q3FY09 Q1FY10 Q3FY10 Q1FY11 Q3FY11 Q1FY12 Q3FY12 Q1FY13 Q3FY13 Q1FY14 Q3FY14 Q1FY15 Q3FY15 Q1FY16 Q3FY16 Q1FY17 Q3FY17 Q1FY18 Q3FY18 Q1FY19 Q3FY19 Q1FY20 Q3FY20 Q1FY21 Q3FY21 Q1FY22 Q3FY22 Q1FY23 Q3FY23 Plant FeedFeed Head Grade Source: company EBITDA was down 51% on the quarter to $9.8m, but this was largely driven by the fall in the 21% fall in the gross basket price. We remain bullish on the rhodium and palladium price outlook (Commodity priceDECK - Changing tack, 28-Mar-23). Their spot prices have reported a recovery bounce recently, after Q1 falls. Figure 3: Sylvania basket price versus all in costs and share price (LHS) 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 Jan-18Jul-18Jan-19Jul-19Jan-20Jul-20Jan-21Jul-21Jan-22Jul-22Jan-23 Sylvania share price (p)PGM Basket (RHS, R/oz) Sylvania all-in cash costs (R/oz) Source: company, Bloomberg Exploration work on Northern Limb remains ongoing. We expect to have an updated MRE for the Volspruit project in Q1FY24.

[makinbuks] 28/4/2023 09:31

Basket price falls 16% but EBITA halves. That volatility is one of the biggest reasons for the discount in value here

[kennyp52] 28/4/2023 09:15

marksp2011.. I don’t think you understand .. Q3 is a short quarter and traditionally lower . In fact it was forecast lower than achieved … thus the increased 2023 guidance. Guess what happens when production is lower .. AISC goes up 🤷‍a94;️. It will drop substantially next quarter .. that is where it is going ! Cash near half MCAP .. ridiculously undervalued

[bountyhunter] 28/4/2023 08:40

Cash up and FY2023 production guidance increased, targeting 72,000 to 74,000 4E PGM ounces following strong production to date.

[dougmachin] 28/4/2023 08:26

Yep, 16% cash up. When the basket is 21% down.

Basket now recovered somewhat.

And that was in the normal weaker / shorter Q3.