Sylvania Platinum Share Discussion Threads

[lupins2] 17/5/2021 09:33

Many thanks crazycoops

[crazycoops] 17/5/2021 09:07

Here you go Lupins hTTps://tradingeconomics.com/commodities

[lupins2] 17/5/2021 08:59

where can I find the current prices of copper,rhodium etc. Someone kindly put it on this BB previously but I have trolled back over the past 150 messages but unable to see it- Thanks in anticipation. GLAH-Lupins

[greggphilips88] 16/5/2021 13:07

My estimate of relative revenue contribution also has Pt about 5 times Ru based on today's prices, vs 8 times this time last year. But, it is the smallest 6E total $ revenue contributor except for negligible Au. Ir has had a bigger total $ revenue impact than Ru this year, in my calcs, given it's huge increase in $ price.
Everything dwarfed by the impact of Rhodium, of course. So any changes in the % by oz of Rhodium in the 4E and 6E prill split will currently have an outsize relative impact on revenue.
Q4 21 revenue to date probably already exceeds all of Q1 21 revenue.

[freddie ferret] 15/5/2021 00:22

On current prices I think it is around 5X.

Interim results would be to the end of Q2, prices used for Q2 calculation would likely be an average across the half year, very different to current prices.

[rabiddog] 14/5/2021 23:47

Page 15 on the interim results...

Will need to go up 14x to catch Pt...or Pt goes down :-)

[freddie ferret] 14/5/2021 23:23

RabidDog.

You say that Ru is 1.4% by revenue, is that on the basis to todays price, yesterdays price or a historical price?

Rhodium went from $700/oz to $29,000/oz quite quick.

................................................................



(2) Revenue (6E) for Q3, before adjustments is $59.2 million (6E prill split is Pt 47%, Pd 17%, Rh 9%, Au 0.2%, Ru 21%, Ir 5%)

................................................................

I think it is quite conceivable that we will see the revenue from Ru exceeding the revenue from Pt in the near term, the price of Pt is currently a shave over double that of Ru, given the recent price movements of both and the fact that it is several years since there has been a price fall of Ru I feel confident in this.

As I have previously said Ruthenium needs watching.

[rabiddog] 14/5/2021 22:09

Ff...ruthenium is currently 1.4% by revenue...I can’t see it making that much difference. Rhodium is nearly 60%..thats about 43x more. 1% increase in rhodium needs a 40% rise in ruthenium to get same impact on revenue

[freddie ferret] 14/5/2021 16:13

Need to point out that Ruthenium is priced per oz. Copper is priced per ton. Big difference. There are a hell of a lot of ounces in a ton.

Copper is less than half a $ an oz.

Ruthenium $560 an ounce and rising fast.

Copper is as common as dirt, find it in a skip near you.

[denizen] 14/5/2021 16:06

Being tipped by Tom Winnefrith is never a good thing. However he just may have got this tip right, which makes a change for him.

[freddie ferret] 14/5/2021 15:43

A couple of days since I last posted on Wednesday and look what happens.

This co is not into copper which has barely moved.

Over 22% of the E6 by mass of Sylvania is in Ruthenium which is now moving up rapidly.

February.

-------Hong Kong London New York
.......08:30 14:00 09:00 09:30
Mon 1st 320 320 320 320
Tue 2nd 320 320 320 320
Wed 3rd 320 320 320 320
Thu 4th 320 320 320 320
Fri 5th 320 320 320 320
Mon 8th 320 320 320 320
Tue 9th 320 320 320 320
Wed 10th 320 320 320 320
Thu 11st 320 320 320 320
Fri 12nd - - 320 320
Mon 15th - - 320 320
Tue 16th 320 320 320 320
Wed 17th 320 320 320 320
Thu 18th 320 320 320 320
Fri 19th 320 320 320 330
Mon 22nd 330 330 330 330
Tue 23rd 330 330 330 330
Wed 24th 330 330 330 335
Thu 25th 335 335 335 340
Fri 26th 340 340 340 345

March

Mon 1st 345 345 345 345
Tue 2nd 345 345 345 345
Wed 3rd 350 350 350 350
Thu 4th 365 365 365 365
Fri 5th 365 365 365 365
Mon 8th 365 365 365 365
Tue 9th 365 365 365 365
Wed 10th 365 365 365 370
Thu 11st 370 370 370 370
Fri 12nd 370 370 370 375
Mon 15th 375 375 375 375
Tue 16th 375 375 375 380
Wed 17th 380 380 380 390
Thu 18th 390 390 390 390
Fri 19th 390 390 390 390
Mon 22nd 390 390 390 390
Tue 23rd 390 390 390 390
Wed 24th 390 390 390 390
Thu 25th 390 390 390 395
Fri 26th 395 395 395 395
Mon 29th 395 395 395 395
Tue 30th 395 395 395 400
Wed 31st 400 400 400 400

April

Thu 1st 400 400 400 400
Fri 2nd - - - -
Mon 5th - - - 400
Tue 6th - - 400 400
Wed 7th 400 400 400 400
Thu 8th 400 400 400 405
Fri 9th 405 405 405 410
Mon 12nd 410 410 410 410
Tue 13rd 410 410 410 410
Wed 14th 410 410 410 415
Thu 15th 415 415 415 415
Fri 16th 415 415 415 420
Mon 19th 420 420 420 420
Tue 20th 420 420 420 420
Wed 21st 420 420 420 420
Thu 22nd 420 420 420 420
Fri 23rd 420 420 420 420
Mon 26th 420 420 420 420
Tue 27th 430 430 430 440
Wed 28th 440 440 440 440
Thu 29th 440 440 440 440
Fri 30th 440 440 440 440

May

Mon 3rd 440 440 - 440
Tue 4th 440 440 440 455
Wed 5th 455 455 455 455
Thu 6th 455 455 455 455
Fri 7th 455 455 455 455
Mon 10th 455 455 455 455
Tue 11st 475 475 490 490
Wed 12nd 500 500 500 500
Thu 13rd 500 500 500 500
Fri 14th 520 520 520 560

That is a 12% rise in the price of Ruthenium today.

[greggphilips88] 14/5/2021 15:33

Saltraider - I agree.

Ruthenium has taken off again this month. It makes up the less discussed 6E PGMs, but was specifically mentioned in the Q3 results: "The gross basket price for the quarter increased 38% from $3,323/ounce in Q2 to $4,576/ounce as a result of the continued rise in the rhodium price. The 6E basket price was further improved by the
increase in the iridium and ruthenium prices which hit all-time highs during the past quarter."
The Ruthenium charts show it being in a tight price of 250-270 all through 2019 and 2020. In 2021 the monthly average prices (on Johnson Matthey) jumped up:
Jan 21 : 285
Feb 21: 323
Mar 21: 376
Apr 21: 416
May 21: 471
and it has jumped to 560 today, from 440 at the start of May and 500 just 2 days ago.
I'd love someone with better knowledge to correct me on total Oz of Ruthenium produced by SLP. I think iridium and ruthenium add up to c25k oz a year, weighted more to Ruthenium. A jump from 260 to 560 would be worth $3-4 million a year extra revenue. Clearly Rhodium is the current star, and then Palladium and Platinum, but this rise in Ruthenium is just more gravy! That's not to overlook Iridium, the other contributor to 6Es, which was in a tight price range of $1400-$1600 in 2019 and 2020, but exploded in Jan - Mar 2021 rising over the quarter steadily to $6000 / oz. It has been above that level all of this Quarter, now at $6300.
I'm holding back cash, taking advantage of any weakness in the sp, whilst these eye watering, across the board, high PGM prices continue.
Please correct or improve my figures and understanding, if you are able and willing to. Thanks.

[farnesbarnes] 14/5/2021 08:41

Providing US markets play ball, this is looking increasing like a repeat of the Autumn 2020 price action. 160, swiftly.

[kazoom] 13/5/2021 21:01

There was a piece of "analysis" doing the rounds a few years ago that BT had so much copper in the ground that it's open market value was a multiple of the market cap but that it was uneconomic to extract it.

I wonder how much has been extracted during network modernisations? (I'd guess not much given how poor BT's results have been in recent years.)

If Copper demand (and therefore price) goes too crazy, maybe it will become economic and BT, AT&T etc will become the real copper plays?

Only partially tongue in cheek.

[bbluesky] 13/5/2021 20:38

Egg- worth repeating. I had missed it first time around. Thx. Personally, I am pretty convinced that copper is in a major bull market, so that for me incentivises the big auto players to go slow on EVs, as who wants to make a car that makes you close to zero profit? Therefore, the case for PGM demand here grows imho.

[eggbaconandbubble] 13/5/2021 20:14

I might have said this before - apologies if I have.

Petrol/diesel cars use about 10Kg copper - mainly the wiring loom. Electric cars use 40Kgs!!!!!!!

[bbluesky] 13/5/2021 18:53

egg - Re Pandemic - might be for Toyota owners...Thieves steal the copper cables that connect railway signals and is the major cause of signaling problems. Very difficult to stop as like wind farms they are in exposed places. Digital/cloud/GPS I would think will take over eventually. In the meantime, word of warning for any wanabee once in a while someone gets electrocuted, but this has not been a sufficient deterrent over the years. I am sticking with SLP for gains!!

Some interesting comments about the problems of too many electric cars, the cost, the pressure on electricity generators in the press. Nor do the auto industry want it to go too fsst, as the margins compared to fuel cars are very small. Demand for PGMs therefore, as emission standards will rise will be v strong, particularly rhodium. Enjoy the ride.

[eggbaconandbubble] 13/5/2021 18:05

OK - sympathies to you sis in law but 9 in one day divided by the number of cars in London! It's not a pandemic is it?
That said, please can you just explain 'Expect more delays from signalling problems...."

Just think of the amount of copper wasted on off-shore wind farms!!!

and having just googled that - there is apparently 'wind farm crime' Meaning of course the theft of copper etc from wind farms. Not that wind farms are themselves a crime. Which they are!

[greyingsurfer] 13/5/2021 18:00

I do every day!

[bbluesky] 13/5/2021 17:33

egg - My sister-in-law had hers nicked a month or so ago from a Toyota Prius in London and the Police said that was the 9th they had been called to that day! A few years ago when Aluminium prices were high owing to the China Olympic "Nest" being built, Bus Stops in East London were taken down with chainsaws. Expect more delays from signalling problems if the copper price continues to climb. Price of lead up, church roofs down etc.

Good accurate journalism as one would expect from The Guardian.