Sylvania Platinum Share Discussion Threads

[mratranslate] 11/9/2020 09:35

says 13,300 here?
hxxp://www.platinum.matthey.com/prices/price-tables#

but if true great!

[mr stephens] 11/9/2020 08:45

Rhodium up to $13800

[mr stephens] 10/9/2020 22:49

65p plus Friday

[kaos3] 10/9/2020 16:53

why W Buffett is rich -

1. he finds good operations throving cash
2. he takes all but little cash from his Cos and reinvests it elsewhere
3. mostly he is permanent cash taker from his businesses ( Sees Candy, papers etc etc) because he is seeking businesses so he can take cash away

without getting cash from his investments he would not come so far

--------------------------------------------

only modern snowflakes intelectuals sell and move on when not ok with the management.
old school - complain, write, seek change, suggest etc

[mr stephens] 10/9/2020 14:34

Two articles in the investors chronicle supporting an increase in price. Should shift it a bit

[mr stephens] 10/9/2020 14:19

Why Sylvania Platinum is a trader’s dream

Why Sylvania Platinum is a trader’s dream
By Michael Taylor
Sylvania Platinum (SLP) is a company that I have followed throughout my whole trading career. It has been an inspiration to me to see what can be achieved if one follows a company’s results and not a share price. I’m often told that being a trader must be difficult, as it requires discipline to buy and cut one’s losses quickly. That is true, and there is also the necessity to continuously generate new trading ideas. But to hold a company for several years through big share price drawdowns must also require nerves of steel.


How often have you held a company’s shares and logged into your account to see a falling share price, and decided that now is a time to either bank profits or get out, only for the share go quickly recover its losses and post further gains? I would be willing to wager that this has happened at least once to all of us. Recency bias places importance on events that are freshest in one’s memory, but of course not all these events are so important in the longer term. In the example of a mining share, a short-term blip in production may see a dramatic price fall, but over the course of a year or several years it fails to register on the share price chart.

We can see an example of exactly this in Anglo Asian Mining (AAZ). On 15 July 2020, the company announced its latest production and operations review. It was a decent update, but for some reason the stock fell from 142p to 129p on large volume in early morning trading. Granted this is not a huge move, but the size of the volume and sharpness of the drop may have been enough to spook many investors and shake them out of their positions. Investors may have expected a larger drop and waited to add on a dip, yet just two weeks later the stock had recovered and was punching through its highs. Recency bias likely caught those who were wishing to add out.

In the case of Sylvania Platinum, investors may now be getting used to these grinding and gyrating. They’ve certainly had plenty of dips to get used to it. But this volatility has also been great for traders – because the stock can move relatively quickly there have plenty of potential profits up for grabs.

SLP:LSE
Sylvania Platinum Ltd

1mth
Today change
5.17% Price (GBP)
61.00
Looking at Chart 1 we can see that in the middle of the chart, May 2016, there appears to be a turning point. I’ve marked this with an arrow, as we begin to see a crescendo of volume sparking life into the chart. To the left of this arrow, we can see that the price of the stock would not move for several sessions, and it would gently drop down on low volume every now and again, barely ever catching a rally. This is typical of a stage 4 capitulation stage stock. We want to avoid the losers, and be long stage 2 advancing stocks.

The only justified exemption for buying a stage 4 downtrend is if you are struggling for liquidity and need to use the falling price to build a position. If one is buying a large number of shares then this indeed may be the reality. But by doing this one is nailing the flag to the mast and it will be impossible to exit without a large loss. This can be a very profitable strategy for the trader but it is high risk. It’s better, at least generally and in my own opinion, to wait for the trend to appear and jump on board when we see the green shoots starting to appear. Unless you are a hedge fund liquidity should not be an issue.




Looking at the stock once the volume picked up, both average volume in the stock ramped up as well as volatility, with sharp rallies and equally as sharp pullbacks, with a gradual uptrend over the next few months.Volume here, even if the stock is not moving much, is very interesting as it shows shares changing hands. That means those who want out are being taken out by new shareholders – new shareholders who presumably want to sell for a higher price to see some profit. It would’ve been unlikely to have been shorts closing positions because the stock was so illiquid, but this is something to look out for on SETS traded stocks.

Moving onto Chart 2, we can see the savage sell off that would test even the most resolute investor’s nerves. Even just last week, the stock sold off from 64p down to as low as 52p on heavy volume, only to rebound in the same day. However, for traders this is a sign of strength. Clearly the dip has well and truly been bought, boding well for a breakout trade at 67p.

Some consolidation of the stock here would be ideal, as the best breakouts come from long bases with sudden spikes in both volume and volatility. Ideally, it’s best not to have too much hot money sitting on a nice paper profit, as any sudden moves can see supply of stock coming into the market. Rather, a nice gentle churn allowing them to exit now and letting other people take up the slack would be a positive thing to see.




My colleague here at Investors Chronicle Simon Thompson still believes there is risk to the upside to his 100p target price (‘Manufacturing Gains’, 7 September 2020). Fundamentals are a nice thing to have, but traders should remain focused on the chart. At the end of the day, we are paid solely on the capital gains of our endeavours – not the undervaluation of the stock. I have made that mistake before and have no wish to repeat it. The price must come first.

[plat hunter] 10/9/2020 14:09

Sorry I didn't answer your question...

Do I rate BMN over SLP... At the moment no.

Both metal plays... BMN are producing their metal at lows and not clearing a lot at the moment But they are investing. SLP is producing metals at historic highs.


Less volatility over at BMN, makes sniping a few percent here and there quite easy.

[plat hunter] 10/9/2020 14:03

A lot of BMN holders ramp the potential return from the energy sector rotating to energy storage needs.


I view the company purely on what is delivering now, ie the vanadium production. BMN seem to be able to come out flat with the v price at lows, so i only trade the gaps over there...


If at all the v market snapped back to highs then it's a 5-6 bagger from where it is now.


Just my humble opinion of course. JC is a good name over there to follow, ignore the rampers and NVHtld, he's just as bad as the rampers but swings the other way.

[martinfrench] 10/9/2020 12:43

plat,

i see you are on the bmn board, do you rate bmn above slp if so, why ?

bmn do look good, as long as the forecast of vanadium is good that is....

[plat hunter] 10/9/2020 10:33

When are the board going to derisk, 3-4 years time when there's only 200k pgm ounces left.What price will chrome be in 3-4 years?Would it have been a good use of shareholder cash, to not return it and wait for the chrome price to increase?

[plat hunter] 10/9/2020 10:29

They're awash with cash and process chrome at a profit whilst the industry is in a price crisis and awash with tailings.It's cheaper, safer and in the shareholders interest to derisk when the cost of doing so is so very very low.In stark contrast to slp's bod, over at JLP they're snapping up chrome assets in the very same jurisdiction.

[felchandbart] 10/9/2020 10:03

Debt free and awash with cash - must be a prime takeover target. Interesting times to sit and hold here.

[plat hunter] 09/9/2020 22:01

They're not undervalued as they haven't derisked their material supply and have no plans to.Do the numbers, 6 years, 7 max even if they do 40 million a year thats 240 million earnings then nothing.

[plat hunter] 09/9/2020 13:09

They're failing to secure their future operations by not investing.Therefore there is no future pgm trade here and libs broker note is no more than a pump and dump.And pumped and dumped it was

[epicsurf] 09/9/2020 12:45

With the windfall special payment , if Liberum actually manage to come on target at 3p with their forecast and pgm stay high it makes a pretty good return for the year ,you can't really ask for a better performance from slp over the year on its numbers
As for integrity can't argue with that
Paying their workforce during lockdown big plus for me
The issue I have is more to do with Liberum as house broker and their forecast completely wide of the mark and raised investors expectations ,in normal circumstances a doubling of the dividend would be positively received

[mr stephens] 09/9/2020 12:42

I’ll say it again: Nothing in the markets should ever amaze you but this does. 120% increase in profits and built in production increase and so far the PMM average gross PGM basket for July to Sept is $2600 a 30% increase for q1. They presented 1st quarter on 22nd October last year. They will compare it to q4. So the release will show production of 18-20k ounces against 9k for q4. Costs down to around $650 an ounce compared to $950 for q4 an ebitda profit of around $30m plus and net profit of $20m plus v 2.6m q4. Then maybe just maybe we’ll get a sensible lift in share price. Currently trading on a cash adjusted p/e of 2 is mystifying.

[investor0109] 09/9/2020 12:21

Valhamos- well said with regards to the dividend. Expectations must be grounded in reality, or otherwise expect to be disappointed. Dividend aside, it can't be denied that SLP is performing exceptionally well. Believe share price likely to trade within 50-60p range until November, by which time I hope cooler heads will prevail.

[valhamos] 09/9/2020 12:02

Stemis "It's quite acceptable to think a share is under valued but disagree with aspects of the way the company is run and to make those points to the board."

That's fine to a point. And yesterday's meeting was useful in that respect, but the ongoing sniping is not helpful. It means two things - firstly, the negativity and the impression of shareholder dissension will probably keep the share price lower than otherwise, and secondly those who disagree with those who disagree will have to up their game and make their views more strongly heard which in response which will raise the volume further and feed the first point.

So in line with that second point let me say that I think a lot comments about the size of the dividend are unacceptable. We are in the middle of the Covid pandemic I want the board to concentrate on steering the company through this crisis and we should cut them some slack. I think they are best placed to know when they can use the cash for share buyback or dividends (and if the price is low I prefer more of the former).

[corrientes] 09/9/2020 12:00

I can't disagree with that. I still feel there's a bunker mentality, now that riches have exposed them,rather than the company quietly continuing as a backwater entity, eeking out a living from the leftover of others. Quite a culture shock I suspect.

If funds continue to accumulate, then they'll probably find that somebody else will relieve them of their concerns.

[plat hunter] 09/9/2020 11:37

Yes you can say that about any other commodities, however other commodity producers either invest or return the cash.

[investor0109] 09/9/2020 11:31

prettygreen- downward pressure on share price when unreasonable expectations inevitably don't come to fruition. SLP yearly revenue +62%, profit +125%, EPS +130%,large cash reserves, share buybacks and is paying a dividend- remarkable at any time, even more so given pandemic and global economic crisis. Great opportunity remains and for those who don't want it, others will take it.

[martinfrench] 09/9/2020 11:08

its pretty clear they do not have a clue what to do with the money they have, outside the odd optimisation project.

its being run like a moms and pops setup, not a fwd thinking company

and since when, if needed, has borrowing money for a company ever a bad thing? just about everyone does, and with money virtually free, and pgm prices high why not ?

its called OPPORTUNITY.

[corrientes] 09/9/2020 10:54

You could say that of any commodity, but human ingenuity has always managed to get more from less.