Sylvania Platinum Share Discussion Threads

[mfhmfh] 20/2/2020 10:29

price should be 110-120p IMHO.

long way still to go for the share price.

[bramcych] 20/2/2020 10:12

SLP is massively undervalued the recent rise is only the start.

[stoodio] 20/2/2020 09:43

We heading to f kin mars haha

[parob] 20/2/2020 09:42

Rhodium is going through the roof!

[mr stephens] 20/2/2020 09:17

View Data
Below Fair Value: SLP (£0.6) is trading below our estimate of fair value (£3.23)

Significantly Below Fair Value: SLP is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

[mr stephens] 20/2/2020 09:16

Valuation

Is Sylvania Platinum undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

Analysis Checks 4/6
>50%
Undervalued compared to fair value
Share Price vs. Fair Value

81.4%
Undervalued
From simply Wall Street analysis

[stemis] 20/2/2020 09:14

The Liberium forecast shows:

Many thanks

[fizzypop] 20/2/2020 08:55

New CEO video from Liberium

hxxps://liberum.com/videos/sylvania-platinum/

[mr stephens] 20/2/2020 08:34

Market makers playing
Sell is coming in at Stroud 59p
Buy a large quantity up to 66p
Yet spreads showing 62-63

[book5] 20/2/2020 08:34

Let’s hope so

[kaos3] 20/2/2020 08:19

imagine - I am not having a lucid dream - it is for real

long it may continue

[parob] 20/2/2020 06:52

Palladium sets record after record as wider deficit fuels surgeBloomberg | Updated: Feb 19, 2020, 04.14 PMThe metal used in catalytic converters is already up more than 40 per cent in 2020 on expectations stricter environmental standards will spur higher loadings of the material in cars, draining global supply that's already struggling to meet demand. The shortage is set to widen to 1.9 million ounces from 1.1 million ounces last year, according to Anglo American Platinum. "A deficit equivalent to about 20 per cent of the palladium market is expected to be sustained this year, helping explain the surge in prices," said Vivek Dhar, an analyst at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. Demand is being driven by environmental regulations, particularly in China, which has increased palladium use in vehicles and should offset any recent weakness in car sales, he said. The rally may also be driven by stimulus measures in China, as well as expectations high prices are here to stay. "Sometimes investors look for a reason to justify buying an asset even if prices have already rallied massively," said ABN Amro Bank NV strategist Georgette Boele. "Normally gold and palladium don't rally like this. This time, they hope it is the new normal." hTTps://m.economictimes.com/markets/commodities/news/palladium-sets-record-after-record-as-wider-deficit-fuels-surge/articleshow/74206957.cms

[plat hunter] 19/2/2020 19:22

Cheers Dave, I've just shared it on the JLP board.

[mr stephens] 19/2/2020 17:56

Brisky I am enjoying but I’m really trying to see how long to play this
At the moment I’m not even considering selling until we get to the first quarter update for July-Sept which should come in October
I expect the PGM price to have risen to over $3,500 driven by rhodium but also expect the new management to increase productivity by 10% to 84m ozs as what else are they there for?
I am adamant that the target share price is wrong and should be nearer £2 than £1 and if I’m right well Del Boy depending on your holding well all be millionaires in our own way
But I love your take and appreciate your advice
I’m chilled and have been enjoying the ride for 2 years now

[cgequityinvest] 19/2/2020 17:38

Anyone know what cash balance Liberium are forecasting by year end?

The Liberium forecast shows:

Cash
30 jun 20 - $59m
30 jun 21 - $111m
30 jun 22 - $142m

this is after payment of the significant dividends.

Current market cap is circa $220m.

Free cash flow yield is forecast at over 30% for both 2021 and 2022.

[metis20] 19/2/2020 17:21

4E basket price estimate up about 10.5% this week - to about US$2780.

(I am using the latest presentation prill and bid prices from

)

Average 4E basket price estimate so far this year is US$2320

Q2 4E basket price estimate is US$1750 (estimated from the Q2 RNS 6E basket of US$1872)

[stemis] 19/2/2020 16:22

Anyone know what cash balance Liberium are forecasting by year end?

[mr stephens] 19/2/2020 15:54

If that was correct logic then 70p would not apply to the $20m forecast and simon Thompson at investors chronicle would not have been proposing to increase his share target price by 79% in line with the potential increase in profits

[1jbrisky] 19/2/2020 15:52

Mr Stevens
Two weeks ago we were 42p, today we are 60p, wherever you come from and however you look at it that's an incredible return. Relax and enjoy.

[barnaberible] 19/2/2020 15:35

Because brokers are usually wrong (someone point to to a broker target price that has been met?)

Liberiums current forecast looks OK at the minute - PE of 6 is low for the sector but based on Eskom, Samancor, Water, general SA risks it aint gonna be near the sector average.

But Liberiums forecast will go out of the window if Spot prices keep rising, or if production increases above higher end (and I have a sneaky feeling it might based on the wording in the last RNS), or if we sell an asset.

There is money to be made by finding broker targets that are low and being long as when they rework the target the share price normally goes up.

So I would relax if I were you

And if you are going to ask me why the TP was 70p when the forecast was $20m the answer is I dont know as I didnt read the note (and to be honest I dont really care because that was 6 months ago)

On the down side I have a feeling that Grasvally sale may fall through due to low chrome prices

[srichardson8] 19/2/2020 15:31

missed out the most important bit (The Times re Palladium)

'Johnson Matthey, the British chemicals maker, reckons that demand outstripped supply by a million ounces last year and Anglo American Platinum expects that gap to widen to almost two million ounces this year.'

[otemple3] 19/2/2020 15:27

Simply because a single years level of profitability does not determine a companies 'value'

[mr stephens] 19/2/2020 15:16

Thank you for highlighting this but I’m still struggling with why at $20m
The target price was 70p
And at $60m the target price is £1.10