Sylvania Platinum Share Discussion Threads

[drradcliffe] 13/2/2020 21:26

Mr Stephens, glad to help. All the things you list could come about. I think there must a fund selling in the background which is keeping the price down. The price will catch up with events at some point.

[metis20] 13/2/2020 19:43

Rhodium has gone over US$10k/oz for the first time on the bid -



SLP basket price estimate has hit a new high today - up almost 40% since the start
of 2020.

[stemis] 13/2/2020 18:45

There's probably a determined seller(s) stopping the price getting too far ahead. At the end of the day it's supply and demand. But as Buffet says, in the short term the markets are a popularity contest, in the long term they are a weighing machine.

[mr stephens] 13/2/2020 17:42

Dr R great insights than you
I wonder though why similar business facing the same conditions have all had their values upgraded albeit with relatively not so positive an outlook
If Slp shtetl stays at current market cap it’s cash pile will be 50% of its value
I suspect a strong bid target for one of the big boys as even if they paid treble the price it would be a 2 year payback with positive profits and cash flows added to the predators balance sheet
Unless of course it’s headed off at the pass by a special dividend which they could currently afford comfortably at 10p a share

[farnesbarnes] 13/2/2020 16:40

National Grid reckon a 96 fold increase in terra watt hours from 2020 to 2050 in the UK for EV charging. That’s a lot of road digging to do. Long Speedy Hire. ;)

[drradcliffe] 13/2/2020 16:08

Mr Stephens, this is classic stuff. You're looking at the value of the company. I'm sure everyone who is long will agree with your analysis. The market is about price, and as is often said, sometimes there is a disparity between value and price, which is what we have here. Reasons - South African political risk, the automotive industry switching away from the internal combustion engine over the next 10 years, feed stock supply/Chrome price, power and water supplies. Personally I think this is a good buy, but the reasons above probably explain the mis-match.

[eeza] 13/2/2020 16:01

Presumably the same thing the Market is getting wrong.
But
The price is set by them.


And, markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent (according to higher powers).

[mr stephens] 13/2/2020 15:58

Thank you but that does not explain nor answer the question
What am I getting wrong?

[eeza] 13/2/2020 11:22

Well, the Market sets the price - & they have the same data as you.

[mr stephens] 13/2/2020 10:04

So some facts
1. Based on the FY results that have been achieved in 6 months and will be at least double in 12 months the brokers target price was 70p.
Should that not now double to £1.40?
That doesn’t account for the sale of a mine and net cash growing at $10m a quarter which means a cash balance of between $50m and $70m at the year end
2. ST target price on the same basis back in Sept was 60p but said this could be up 79% on the basis of increased rhodium price which at that time would uplifted his target price to £1.08 if re visited now it would be nearer £1.50. I’m sure he’ll do this either after the 1st half results or at the 3rd quarter update in April
3. The rhodium price when both did their forecasts was around $2500
4. The rhodium price now is over $10000. Palladium has more than doubled in price as well. Together they make up 40% of SLPs mixed PGM basket
5. Costs have reduced so the extra sales from above fall on the bottom line as cash and eventually net profit before tax which means the second half Is set up to beat the first half which is already a record
6. There should be a re rating as otherwise shears based on full year earnings with be trading on a p/e of less than 2
7. The brokers will need to re forecast in the coming week and to be consistent their target price should be north of 1.40 as noted in point 1 above
Conclusion this share should rocket if market economics are in place

Please somebody tell me why I am wrong?

[barnaberible] 13/2/2020 07:42

And the whole report...

hxxp://www.platinum.matthey.com/documents/new-item/pgm%20market%20reports/pgm_market_report_february_2020.pdf

[homebrewruss] 12/2/2020 22:18

'Palladium deficit expected to widen in 2020'

[whitefish] 12/2/2020 19:52

No reason to be nervous, SLP probably trading on a PE of 6 or 7 just using HY profit, this has to drop, probably by more than half in FY.

[fizzypop] 12/2/2020 19:18

From LSE blog ... interims due Mon 17 Feb but unconfirmed from official source.

[otemple3] 12/2/2020 18:40

I've pencilled in Tuesday based on last year

[mesteve] 12/2/2020 16:26

Should be tomorrow or Friday, last year half year was 14th Feb 2018, hence nervy after the ST upswing

[mesteve] 12/2/2020 16:24

I don't trust the trading pattern on this one....especially after the article by ST this week, which in all fairness bought it back to where it should be, 45p and above. Plus large block INST sellers.
I have a feeling the half year results, which he highlighted, could have a short term downswing, so am out for now and will probably regret it. But back if the price does dip after the results. Cash in AFC still riding...doing well, even if no numbers to support it unlike SLP! Good luck, I am normall wrong!!

[fizzypop] 12/2/2020 15:49

Does anyone have a date for Q3 results. Thanks

[kaos3] 12/2/2020 08:07

very strange start of the trading day

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[mrpoisson] 11/2/2020 23:50

Long term holder from SLV days with an average of 8p. Volspruit was always going to be the game changer here. Political instability in SA has always weighed on the share price I won't be selling for less than £1 and happy to wait another 10 years.

[parob] 11/2/2020 15:39

Many momentum traders will look for a close above 45p before buying in so I think we could see more significant gains tomorrow as they move in.

[bookwormrobert] 11/2/2020 12:30

Here's the link to the Simon Thomson article again:
www.investorschronicle.co.uk/comment/2020/02/10/exploiting-market-anomalies/ GLA strong buy

[bookwormrobert] 11/2/2020 12:30

Hi Chris!
Lots of use are here for the long haul up to the 70s and 80s and beyond.
But a major TA "breakout" signal was triggered on this share this morning, so we should expect a few traders to try their luck on trading this share's momentum.
Personally, I'll stick to trusting the pretty amazing fundamentals here.