Sylvania Platinum Share Discussion Threads

[basem1] 10/2/2020 12:23

You got a lot to learn Steve

[mesteve] 10/2/2020 12:21

What's an ST spike??

[mesteve] 10/2/2020 12:20

What's just happened there then?? It's not the Footsie improvement that bought the spare price back by 3p??!!

[parob] 10/2/2020 12:16

Just need to get through 45p now!

[frazboy] 10/2/2020 12:14

That looks like a ST spike!

[mesteve] 10/2/2020 12:03

Thanks for that Redtrend.

The MMs and PIs don't seem to value this right, we are going down just like the 18% down two days then 13% up rebound. There were ver few buyers when it was goign down and that worried me at the time. I thinking no big rebound this time and very much hope we don't start testing 35p again! It's not so bad foe the guys who bought in at 10p- 25p levels, as can watch a little more calmly, but at 40p, it really isn;t fun ad doeesn't make much sense to me....Maybe the PIs are all moving to EUA?

[mfhmfh] 10/2/2020 12:02

Strongly tipped by ST in IC.

[basem1] 10/2/2020 10:50

It is South Africa so it's never going to be fully valued because of Political and geographical risks But worth 80-90p imho

[basem1] 10/2/2020 10:48

Undervalued........

[1jbrisky] 10/2/2020 10:46

Lots of sells going through (where are these people coming from?) but all fairly small.
I've just topped up some more at 39p+. Reckon a Simon Thompson rant over the next few weeks could well push beyond the 45p resistance point.
I've been in and out of shares for 30+ years and I seriously can not remember a company being so obviously undervalued.

[basem1] 10/2/2020 10:40

At least there wasn't the panic selling this morning and it allowed me to get my 40p ones back at 38.5

[brucie5] 10/2/2020 10:08

In for another trading buy at 38.5. Unless my eyes deceive me, or coronavirus brings down the entire market, the mms are up to their old tricks. It needs to take out 45p. to knock through the double top, but following the discussion above, I think this can certainly be done.

[eeza] 10/2/2020 09:17

Not a good start. Off 8%.

[mr stephens] 10/2/2020 00:11

Sincere thank you
Finally think I’m not going mad
Much more cohesive than my analysis and far more insight
Some observations
I think the trend is for 78,000 ozs
Rhodium price q3 is already $10,775
The splits of the 5 active mines according to their data are platinum 60% palladium 27% and rhodium 13% but agree within a whisker to your cash and ebitda forecasts
Applied p/e is low based on sector average

Share price could go significantly higher

[whitefish] 09/2/2020 23:47

Sylvania Platinum 1 July 2019 to 30 June 2020 Estimated base to upside case

Budget 74,000 to 76,000 Ozs
Split: Platinum 61.8% Palladium 24.90% Rhodium 13%
Ozs 46,575 18,675 9,750
Budget Price 850 1,446 3,585 USD:Ozs
EBITDA FY USD37.5m Budget

Spot Prices
996 2,213 9,500 USD :Ozs

P&L USD
Q1 Sept 30th EBITDA 19.1 Actual
Q2 Dec 31 EBITDA 17.5 Actual
HY EBITDA 36.6 Actual
Budget H2 EBITDA 18.75 (half of USD37.5m)
H2 Ozs Price Adj
Platinum 23,484 125 EBITDA +2.94
Palladium 9,462 600 EBITDA +5.67
Rhodium 4,940 4,500 EBITDA +22.23
Total Ozs 37,886 Adj. FY EBITDA 86.19 USD:1.31 GBP 65.79m
Depr -6.6
Tax 28% -22.29
Profit after Tax 57.3 USD:GBP GBP 43.74
Shares 282,600,000 EPS 0.155p
Actual Share Price: 42p PE:2.67x
77.5p PE:5x
93p PE:6x

PAT 57.3
CapEx -3.4 10m Cap Ex less Depr 6.6
Contracted Disposal net 4 (after tax)
Free Cash Flow 57.9
Opening Cash 21.61
79.51

Yr End Cash USD 79.51
GBP 60

>>> EBITDA USD 86.19m GBP 65.79m (or 23.2p per share) to EV 118.7m (42p) less say GBP50m (17.69p)
EBITDA:EV 1.05X 42less 17.69p or 24.31p divided by 23.2p

Need share price of 110.49p for EBITDA:EV of 4 times (110.49 - 17.69 = 92.8/4= 23.2p

6 Months to Dec.31, 2019 CASH FLOW estimated
USDm
Cash from Operations 36.8

(Increase)/Decrease in Debtors -8.7
Capital Expenditure -3
Tax (28%) -6.8
FX Movement -1.3
Other 0.2

Dividends -2.9
Share Buy-Backs -2.2

Increase in Cash 12.1
Cash June 30th, 2019 21.8
Cash December 31, 2019 33.9

[mr stephens] 09/2/2020 16:42

Yes who cares

[mr stephens] 09/2/2020 16:42

Yes who cares

[graham86] 09/2/2020 16:41

tds247
why do i need to know this

[mr stephens] 09/2/2020 16:15

I’ve put in several variables
Probably the most believable is to take Liberians forecast of target price of 70p based on $28.9 cash profitably before tax. I forecast $90m so 3.13 times liberiiums forecast
This would suggest the target share price should therefore be 3.13 x 70p = 2.19
But that’s still only a p/e of 4.5
A p/e of 6 would give the 2.86

[dilip40] 09/2/2020 15:21

mr s

cant see how you get £2.86 share price on $60m profit m/cap is £117 m price 40p @2.86 market cap would be £819

[mr stephens] 09/2/2020 10:28

Incidentally at $60 profit on a multiple of 6 would give an exchange rate adjusted share price in sterling of £2.86
If it was in the sector p/e the price would be sterling adjusted 6.05
I know sounds crazy but just shows how undervalued this really is
I feel humbled posting these numbers and would appreciate cmments on wherever I’m going wrong with my logic

[mr stephens] 09/2/2020 08:39

If I’m even nearly on the ball that’s a p/e of 1.4

[mr stephens] 09/2/2020 08:36

A note on your net profit
The costs stay the same per PGM oz so all the profit falls to the bottom line less tax of course
They’ve already posted $24.4m so my forecast taking account of the higher PGM price is for h2 to post $36.4m making a full year total of $61m and cash in the bank of $70m plus any disposals
Very interested in feedback and views about share price

[mr stephens] 09/2/2020 08:13

I agree with your numbers
Liberum forecast $29m profit before tax
Target price 70p
As that looks like $90m that is a factor increase of 313%
Apply that to 70p and target price is around £2.20
But what if you applied the industry average p/e of 13 then the price is up in the stratosphere
Whatever way you look at there has to be a re rating