Sylvania Platinum Share Discussion Threads

[mesteve] 03/2/2020 13:24

Why will it support at 37p?

[eeza] 03/2/2020 12:44

Almost back to support at 37p.

[mesteve] 02/2/2020 19:49

It’s probably just a coincidence, but the Q2 to Q1 reduction was 11% and the drop at 9.30 hit 11% down. I bought then which I’m still not sure was a good move beating in mind the markets and China etc, but we’ll see Monday....
In 2018 they were 12% down on Q1 and the share price hardly moved.
2019 Q2 drop was only 1% and best ever half year. I guess even though the PE is still crazy low, the price has moved up a fair bit the last 2 months ( still think the figures merit it) so anything negative was bound to be harshly treated but not by this margin. But the fundamentals of the business and figures are sound, even with possible reductions in main feeding plants, they have it covered. The Eskom issue doesn’t help of course but is that new news?
The MMs definitely wanted a big correction Friday, so we’ll just have to hope the figures start being covered properly PIs, brokers and share sites etc as the company is well undervalued as you’ve all said.
Sentiment in play at the moment

Wish I’d bought into Crypto in December, I was close but felt odd and dangerous buying fresh air....price up a lot since though!

[nk104] 01/2/2020 16:40

In the short term the market is a voting machine. In the long term it's a weighing machine.

[1jbrisky] 01/2/2020 12:25

Don't think I'll ever understand how these results have instigated a 10% drop in the share price.
Do the maths ffs
I guess I'll just have to stick to my knitting and let time do its thing.

[mad foetus] 01/2/2020 09:25

I think starting the buy back programme again might be a good idea. Hard to think of a better use of cash

[whitefish] 01/2/2020 02:00

Very Strong Cash Flow for the 6 months to Dec.31 2019:

Estimated use of Cash Flow from Operations USDm

Cash Flow from Operations 36.8
(Increase)/ Decrease in Debtors ( 8.7)
Capital Expenditure ( 3.0)
Tax ( 6.8)
FX Movement ( 1.3)
Other ( 0.2)

Dividends ( 2.9)
Share Buy-backs ( 2.2)
Increase in Cash 12.1
Cash June 30th 2019 21.8
Cash Dec 31 2019 33.9

If we assume the 2nd Half to June 30th 2020 matches the first half, then the Increase in Cash plus Dividends and Share Buy backs for the FY would be USD17.2m x 2 = USD34.4m or GBP26.2m. This equates to 23.23% of Sylvania's Market cap GBP113.04m (SP41p). Imagine if that was paid as a Dividend, what might happen to the Share Price. Under this scenario, Cash is also maintained at June 3oth 2019 levels.

[brad_k] 31/1/2020 15:42

The share price has certainly dropped today, by almost 5p at one stage, but on balance we have more buys than sells. So is this just market makers keeping the lid on the price due the poor market background (Coronavirus) or do we still have an overhang ... I did think that had cleared when we broke above 40p.
Purely on buys/sells we should be up today.

[bookwormrobert] 31/1/2020 13:22

I also get a "current P/E" of between 2 to 3 for this quarter, assuming that palladium and rhodium prices stay where they are. Or, in plain English, I make this share a stonking buy. I've got no idea why people sold this morning; I just don't get it at all.
BTW, rhodium just broke $10,000 / ounce.

[otemple3] 31/1/2020 12:47

Hi Danger, was my first time on SCL and it was very good. Good to have Mojo on with a negative slant who then changed his mind and bought! Thanks for your efforts

[dangersimpson2] 31/1/2020 12:26

We discussed the Q2 SLP results on small caps live this morning. You can catch up here if you missed it:



This was my summary:

Rhodium strength overnight plus ZAR weakness, together with the Q2 results, mean I have upgraded my 2020 EPS forecast to c.14p & FCF PS to c.19p (prior to any WC or tax payment timing impacts.)

[mad foetus] 31/1/2020 12:21

And worth thinking the maths through. Q2 we banked $10.1m. With holiday, let's say it was an 85 day quarter, so that is near enough $120,000 cash profit per day. So far YTD the basket of metals is up from 1872 to around 2450, and SLP has costs per ounce of a little over $500/Oz. So from my reckoning the profits per day in Q3 should be something like 50% higher than in Q2 (it's probably more as I think our AISC are higher than that). So say $180,000 per day, if prices remain their YTD average, over 90 days would mean profit of over $16m in Q3, or a PE of around 2.Feel free to challenge the maths, it's all rough.

[cameronroberts99] 31/1/2020 12:10

Also form the RNS. CEO says...."The recent communication of potential retrenchments at some of our host mines has necessitated that we review our feed strategy in terms of alternative feed sources to compensate for the potential loss of any current arisings or RoM material to our plants. We have been in similar situations before and I believe that through committed engagement with our host mines, and based on flexibility between current arisings and dump material on our operations, we will be able to manage the potential change in ratio of feed sources effectively to minimise or prevent the potential impact of the host mines downsizing."Aka nothing new. I read this as a positive. The company clearly have a good awareness of the situation with regards to market worries. Disruptions to the mining sector in SA are part of what's driving the PGM price. We can't have it both ways... but it sounds very much like SLP have it in hand and are expecting to make good on their current expectations for the year.

[metis20] 31/1/2020 11:07

from today's RNS -

"The currently depressed chrome market is putting pressure on chrome miners and could potentially impact on fresh feed sources at some operations, but operations are able to substitute feed with available dump material in order to run plants at capacity."

[sharpshare] 31/1/2020 10:59

Samancor joins a growing list of SA’s mining companies retrenching
The world's second-largest ferrochrome producer could shed nearly 2,500 jobs. Weak chrome prices and Eskom blamed



Fresh feed under threat.

[sharpshare] 31/1/2020 10:46

Stage 2 load shedding today



ie rolling blackouts

[leopoldalcox] 31/1/2020 10:46

"low cash" you say. Have you read the update? The cash pile is huge for a company this size, and it's growing rapidly

[barnaberible] 31/1/2020 10:07

Cash adjusted and with current PGM prices (which may or may not be sustainable) I would think its considerably less that P/E 4

[bookwormrobert] 31/1/2020 09:55

Sorry for the triple post - glitch!

[bookwormrobert] 31/1/2020 09:55

High expectations? Not really.
I make it that this share is now trading at a "future P/E" of about 4.
That's not really a P/E that you associate with a fast-growing debt-free company with a cash pile equal to about 1/4 of its mcap.
Anyway, the interims next month will reveal all. This share is an absolute steal at this price.

[bookwormrobert] 31/1/2020 09:55

High expectations? Not really.
I make it that this share is now trading at a "future P/E" of about 4.
That's not really a P/E that you associate with a fast-growing debt-free company with a cash pile equal to about 1/4 of its mcap.
Anyway, the interims next month will reveal all. This share is an absolute steal at this price.

[bookwormrobert] 31/1/2020 09:54

High expectations? Not really.
I make it that this share is now trading at a "future P/E" of about 4.
That's not really a P/E that you associate with a fast-growing debt-free company with a cash pile equal to about 1/4 of its mcap.
Anyway, the interims next month will reveal all. This share is an absolute steal at this price.

[frazboy] 31/1/2020 09:44

there's definitely a degree of that snorky. PI's undoubtedly had high expectations.

[iamgreat1] 31/1/2020 09:22

Earth you?