Sylvania Platinum Share Discussion Threads

[basem1] 02/1/2020 11:09

Welcome aboard MF I was going to wait until 40p until I told a few of the popular threads Seems under the radar still from a BB perspective

[jampot7us] 02/1/2020 11:06

This could explode..buyers in for the update?

[metis20] 02/1/2020 11:05

Current spot prices US$/oz
Palladium 1954
Platinum 970
Rhodium 6050

[mad foetus] 02/1/2020 11:01

I'm in, looks very strong

[basem1] 02/1/2020 10:54

Quiet bulletin board given the depth of buying

[dangersimpson2] 02/1/2020 10:39

Fair value is a very hard thing to define for SLP given that they are a commodity producer and have no pricing power over their products. Any estimate of fair value has, by definition, an assumption of metal prices, and to a lesser extent currencies and costs, in it. Liberium have a DCF valuation of 71p on roughly $3k Rho, $850 Pt, $1500 Pd. I think it would be overly optimistic to value SLP on current spot prices, but the longer that prices remain at current levels the more that the Liberium DCF would appear to be an overly pessimistic valuation.

[basem1] 02/1/2020 10:32

On the larger trades lately at 37p there has been 2 identical ones quite a lot of the time I wonder if they are a buy and a sell with the market makers happy to take nothing for there trouble If there is a line of stock it is in the market makers best interests to have it cleared and gone ?

[pireric] 02/1/2020 10:30

Overhang gone potentially. Ask up to 37.5p

[basem1] 02/1/2020 10:16

Minimum fair value range is 55-65p imo

[pireric] 02/1/2020 09:56

Bid up to 36.95 now, so it's a razor-thin spread. In a handful of cases I've seen in the past, this narrowing precedes some movement

[yasrub] 02/1/2020 09:42

It seems still plenty of stock available at 37p, the overhang continues. 🙄

[pireric] 31/12/2019 09:29

May lead to nothing, but the bid/ask spread has tightened to the narrowest I've seen it in a long time, over the last hour. Now 36.87 to sell, 37 to buy. Still watching for a break of that 37p load of stock, and wonder if this is now a step closer.

[jampot7us] 31/12/2019 05:32

Platinum prices up over night..

[carcosa] 27/12/2019 04:45

Eskom website gives a country overview on a daily basis. The problem I have with the actual page is that although it tells you what is planned it doesn't actually seem to say what is happening; and those two things seem to have little correlation!

Another source of info is Twitter, #POWERALERT

The problem this time last year was a severe water shortage, not so much electricity, which lead to a significant Q2 reduction in production of 14902 oz. This year it seems that water has not been a factor, in fact too much rain water has affected coal stock piles for the generation of electricity.

Overall, for this quarter, I have not seen any electricity/water macro issues that would have resulted in significant disruption to SLP as compared to any other quarter.

SLP Q2 production details are estimated to be published at the end of January

[otemple3] 26/12/2019 23:02

Thanks for the response Pireric. Agree there is a significant margin of error in valuation here, hence been building a position but am nervous to go too large here purely due to the sentiment hit we will see 'if' shedding becomes more of an issue. Expecting a very positive quarterly update in Jan to hopefully start the reboot of the share price.

[pireric] 26/12/2019 22:09

Put some stuff on post 1567. Hasn't been loadshedding recently as Xmas holidays etc.

Big question is really whether there is serious loadshedding for a prolonged period of time as South Africa heads into 2020. A couple weeks here or there at low levels of shedding doesn't make a material difference I think, which is what has been seen this last quarter of the year. But if you have unprecedented levels of Stage 4+ for 3 weeks plus, then that probably has some more noticeable impact on production rates. I'd imagine revenues in the quarter will still look excellent thanks to the basket price.

Then have to correlate that back to the valuation here which seems to leave a lot of room for error. But hard to say precisely

[otemple3] 26/12/2019 22:01

Does anyone know if the load shedding is having any impact currently. Pricing environment is fantastic and should lead to a significant re-rate from here assuming volumes hold up

[pireric] 26/12/2019 14:13

Platinum at over 950 now

[jampot7us] 20/12/2019 16:41

Maybe the seller has had a day off?

[stra3enkater] 17/12/2019 12:38

Ah, thanks dangersimpsons2. Forget my previous email. Crossed with yours.

[stra3enkater] 17/12/2019 12:36

Yep, Majedie's selling and whoever buying. But how can they keep the price constant? The buys and sells do not seem to be particularly balanced over time. In fact, Majedie's appear to have been selling for several weeks now. Should the AIM market processes not drive the price upwards if 2M£ pay in one day as today? Can the two institutions have a deal behind the scene? Sorry if this is a naive question.

[dangersimpson2] 17/12/2019 12:33

There's an overhang - see previous few posts - there are one or two price-insensitive sellers who need the cash and are therefore happy to feed stock to the market at this level. If the buying pressure remains and the overhang clears we should see a move up, if buying dries up before the overhang clears we could see a move down.

Slightly disappointed that the company hasn't taken some of these big blocks of stock themselves, they would be highly earnings-enhancing given the low interest rates earned on the increasing cash pile.

[pireric] 17/12/2019 12:20

Clearly an institution is offloading and another one is taking up the slack at 37p. Not moving as presumably there's a few more shares left to go.