Supergroup Share Discussion Threads

[the skunk] 08/9/2015 19:00

Short to 1320.

[mike740] 08/9/2015 18:55

Yep but the analysts in attendance, will be asking for sure.

[scaramanga1906] 08/9/2015 18:17

Last year their trading update only covered to the end of July. If August has been weak as some are suggesting he might not mention it as I doubt he'll want a sour 1st AGM. He may take the view that a weak August could mean a strong September and wait to see what turns up IMO.

[mike740] 08/9/2015 18:06

Boo yep a holder but if results here are a bit dicey ill be selling out before results on the 29th.

[scaramanga1906] 08/9/2015 18:03

Are you looking at any particular stocks? I quite like BOO although they've got a bit to do to prove themselves since the post float drop.

[mike740] 08/9/2015 18:00

Ive already said I dont have a position at the moment.

Im using it as a guide towards other clothing/fashion trades going forward.

Ive said it could be 50/50 , could go either way as its a little more diversified than other fashion retailers, BUT weve had poor results on the high street from Halfords and J lewis, so Im not suprised by the nervous atmosphere.

Must say tho Scara not keen on your % of the stock in your folio. Id never give more than 5% to any stock and that would be extreme for me.

Best of luck tho.

[scaramanga1906] 08/9/2015 17:48

Mike/Skunk,

I've declared my buy prices and % of portfolio. Anyone else going to declare theirs or is it just going to be Harry Hindsight tomorrow morning? Go on, don't be chickens and be all "told you so" tomorrow. Lol

[cockneyrebel] 08/9/2015 17:40

10% off the recent high, could look a steal on good news imo.

CR

[the skunk] 08/9/2015 17:07

Will it be a case of "buy the story, sell the news", tomorrow?

[cockneyrebel] 08/9/2015 16:51

That's what happens Scaramanger.

I think the retailers have been weak on weak retail data for Aug out today but most of that was weather related and timing of bank holiday.

We're still buying cars - up 10% YOY, and holidays going like crazy so no shortage of big ticket spend.

Tomorrow's statement will be interesting.

CR

[scaramanga1906] 08/9/2015 16:24

Sat on the fence post, but definitely not sat on the fence open position. Really swithered over reducing risk given the price action this week but decided to stick with it - for better or worse. Bought in at 1020 and doubled up at 1238 so I have nice profits to play with here. However it's now 12% of portfolio so will be a nasty fall in cash terms if the statement is unpleasant & nobody likes giving back.

I'm sure we've all taken a view one way or the other in the past. Sod's law if you sell the bloody thing goes "ahead of market expectations". The next time you do the opposite and they profit warn. Better to be going into it with a good profit to play with though. I can't see them going below my purchase prices tomorrow.

[mike740] 08/9/2015 16:02

Sat on the fence post that Scara, mind I dont blame you, it could go either way.

[scaramanga1906] 08/9/2015 15:48

Looks like a few nervous holders ahead of the statement tomorrow. It has a history of big down moves on RNS days but that was under the previous ceo/cfo. Could be a strong move upwards tomorrow if all is well as the nervous nellies scramble to get back in. On the other hand they could be right and it will tank, so DYOR.

[mike740] 08/9/2015 14:02

BooHoo.com seems to be the fashion retailer in demand at the moment and update on the 29th i think.

SP action here today on a rising market in general says a lot of investors are wary , not just of this retail stock but quite a few fashion retailers.

Im long on BOO but may sell before results.

[coddey] 08/9/2015 10:49

Cayman, of course they sell stuff, and quite a lot of it. But I think that they will become overstretched.

If you look at their figures, not just the turnover I think you'll see that stocks are rising, cash declining, costs rising, and profit in the last report boosted by a very large "Derivatives maturation" or something like that, whatever that was, not looking at the figures in front of me.... doesn't sound like operating profit to me.

It's the interesting thing about stocks isn't it, everyone has a different opinion, it's why when I sell someone else buys and vice versa. Look forward to seeing how it all pans out.

Truthfully, I wish them every success but I simply don't "get it". The capital expense and expansion to sell very casual clothing. You can't walk around these days without seeing a shop. Might be because I live in London.

Still, went to Turkey through Gatwick last week... same vibe in their airport duty free, tons of stock, quite pricey, quiet shop.

Conversely, saw some knockoffs in a Turkish market. imitation is the sincerest form of flattery... so again I might be wrong.

I'm genuinely interested to see how it all pans out... but, as you can see, I'm not a mega bull on it.

And don't be expecting an "Asos" out of this remember... huge capital outlay, pure one trick fashion play. I think growth potential is limited, and risky.

[cyman] 08/9/2015 08:20

Coddey I hear what you say, butReceived a phone call and about 20 SMS messages from family in Canada with a list of supergroup requests they all have. Personally I wouldn't know the difference between supergroup and a supermarket but I don't invest based on my own fashion sense. I invest when I tell my wife I am thinking of buying sgp and her response is 'oh that's a fantastic business, excellent clothes and quite pricey too'

[mike740] 07/9/2015 12:58

Looks like its going to drop to support at 1400p.

[mike740] 07/9/2015 12:57

Most certainly.

[coddey] 07/9/2015 11:07

Buying in Jan and selling now after doubling your money might have been a better way to play it....

[cockneyrebel] 07/9/2015 10:51

Time to buy/top up ahead of Weds t/s?


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[coddey] 07/9/2015 10:41

China, the market leader in fake goods and knock-offs, premium goods like burbury do well, but I don't see the appeal for t shirts and naff bags over there... plus... with a historic tension with Japan and to a lesser degree Britain. (what the brand is based on), I can't see it flying off the shelves.

But it's all speculation on my part.

I think cracking the US is going to be a massive challenge as well, considering the prices of product being sold over there from the competition, the range of competitors, dropping retail sales etc.

I just think that Supergroup has already picked the low hanging fruit already and any expansion is going to cost much more than we've already seen and will prove to be problematic.

They've got stock problems, and they are over saturated in the UK. I don't even know what the brand stands for...what lifestyle does it espouse? Can any of you? It's no Nike, doesn't have the versatility / range of Topman, not edgy like urban outfitters, not cool like holister or American Apparel, not value like uniclo.

I'm honestly at a loss, and if this is a messaging board where we can all air our opinions then that is mine...

I understand some of you may hold stock, some may be short, etc etc. Don't want to rile anyone.

[terrys trousers] 07/9/2015 10:01

How do you see china franchise developing Coddey?. any worries.

[coddey] 07/9/2015 09:25

I stick with my previous sentiments on the prospects of Supergroup.... But I base my thoughts on the product range, brand over-saturation, costs of overseas expansion and so on...

The drop in overall UK sales is just an additional hurdle for this stock in my opinion.

Let's see how it all pans out.

[mike740] 06/9/2015 20:09

More or less in line with you.

Just look at halfords and the one reported on here the other day, ohhh South based always forget its name .....Lewis J lewis.

Thats a signal that poor weather as effected trading and North Europe as had some poor weather as well.

I like retail stocks but very wary at the moment.


Im liking the industrial transport and health sectors at the moment.

Heres a link you may like on sector performance.



Got to dash now her indoors wants to go out.

cheers