Summit Therapeutics Share Discussion Threads

[someuwin] 29/9/2016 11:18

From LSE...



"H.C. Wainwright initiated coverage of Summit Therapeutics (NASDAQ:SMMT) with a “buy” rating and $26 price target. The stock closed at $5.50 on Thursday.

Summit has two de-risked assets, with billion-dollar potential, and is conducting clinical programs focused on two genetic diseases: Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) and Clostridium difficile infections (CDI).

Ezutromid is an oral agent that has the potential to treat all 50,000 DMD patients in the developed world, writes analyst Carol Ann Werther. Ezutromid is able to up regulate the protein production of utrophin, which has the potential to develop and repair muscles fibers. Ezutromid has already been shown to be well tolerated in about 100 healthy volunteers and 24 DMD patients.

“We expect Summit to commercialize Ezutromid on its own worldwide and to potentially generate about £1.2-billion in worldwide sales in 2026,” she added.

Ridinilazole (RDZ) is a highly selective, novel antibiotic for the treatment of CDI that achieved statistical superiority over vancomycin, with sustained clinical responses of 66.7%, compared with 42.4%, in a Phase 2 trial.

“In our view, RDZ may have be able to selectively target C. difficile without causing collateral damage to the natural gut flora and thereby reduce CDI recurrence rates,” Ms. Werther said, adding that Summit plans to partner RDZ and not conduct the Phase 3 program on its own.

She has modeled U.S. and EU launches in calendar 2021, with peak sales of approximately £930-million and Summit receiving a flat 20% royalty. "

Note I : Summit have already laid out a plan to get Ezutromid into the market by 2019 or thereabouts, so I think 2026 is a bit out and considering the patient advocacy groups petitioning the FDA for early approval we could be conditionally in the market before 2019. But obviously in her model she has to make allowances for probabilities and setbacks. GLA

Note II : Summit have also put down a commercial plan to aim Ridinilazole at the three stages of C.Diff treatment (Mild/moderate, Severe and Recurrence) which could lead for peak sales well beyond $1bln if achieved.

[phowdo] 29/9/2016 11:12

The differential between the 2 exchanges does suggest London is upto its usual shenanigans (ie perhaps frontrunning a placing)

*Edit. Seems the differential is only about 10-15% though, I assumed it was larger.

[patviera] 29/9/2016 11:04

"( unless of course, its a highly discounted placing,
which is unlikely "

haha...unlikely??!! u never know with glyn edwards

he couldve raised 18m at 9p but decided to raise 20m at 6.5p! i wonder why??

it will be as low as he can so his "mates" make a lot of money
us private shareholders are just a nuisance to him

[luminoso] 29/9/2016 11:00

Good post, Hugus. I think the share price will do much more than double from here on news of funding being arranged - ( unless of course, its a highly discounted placing,
which is unlikely now after the Sarepta news and what followed with Summit news ).
The nasdaq will go crazy if the funding issue is resolved. Currently the share price is probably up more with speculation of Sarepta looking to acquire other DMD pipelines as per their announcement. Once we are funded, that speculation will take second place to what we can achieve alone. IMO.

[chrisatrdg] 29/9/2016 09:40

Thanks for your post HM & I think that Summit is on the verge of a significant share price increase with the next positive news.

[hugus maximus] 29/9/2016 09:33

There are threads about Summit now appearing on the Sarepta Yahoo Finance BB which was not the case a couple of weeks ago.

All IMO ... Sarepta FDA success has brought DMD work to the fore after all things DMD had previously meant doom and gloom. Specific knowledge has been highlighted for example about the Sarepta drug only ever potentially working with 13% of boys and Summit being designed to fix 100% and the FDA change in protocol sees Summit possibly hitting the big time 2017 / 18 ... suddenly Summit are on the horizon.

However, many NASDAQ PIs seem poised to buy into Summit WHEN they have news that this "tiny English company with no cash in the bank actually has the funding to make it to 2017".

The minute the NASDAQ investors had some idea of where funding is coming from, the share price might be double what it is today. Why would someone invest in a company that could, at any moment, make shares available under present market value?

[patviera] 29/9/2016 07:56

WaterlooI doubt the seller holds ADR s!!

[waterloo01] 29/9/2016 07:28

It finished trading on Nasdaq up at £1.89.

[sorrento06] 29/9/2016 07:16

Yeah, back to 90's with deal announced November. Just a guess. DYOR

[buywell3] 29/9/2016 01:20

Sub 100p coming anyone ?

[jag63] 28/9/2016 23:20

Disclosure of Major Shareholders’ transactions – The notification requirement is triggered when the size of holdings reaches, exceeds or moves below certain thresholds stated in the TD (starting from 5% for non UK issuers and from 3% for UK only) The shareholder is required to inform the issuer. The issuer must then inform the market.

[patviera] 28/9/2016 20:59

Doesn't seem to have been enough volume But1/ can never tell what that bloke gets up to !!2/ maybe it's a late notification

[clarkey26] 28/9/2016 20:53

Patviera

Was there enough sold in a single day on 26th then to cover reduction from +5% to less than 3%, or more trades still to be disclosed?

[patviera] 28/9/2016 20:00

ClarkeySorry I disagreeHe should've notified the SE and the company every time he goes through a percentageAnd yes if there is a placing coming and he's inside he isn't allowed to sell so let's see if there is a placing soon as to me he will have the early nodThe way he got in early on summit placing some months ago indicates he is v close to Glyn Edwards or has a friend who is!!FootballYes as I said I don't trust GEShame as the drug could well work but doesn't help with this mgmnt

[clarkey26] 28/9/2016 18:13

The declaration is made when the transaction is complete, so if reducing through 5,4 & 3% this can be over a period of time and overall transaction declared at the end/completion not at each %.

He also couldn't sell if approached to participate in placing given insider knowledge.

Why sold well as say can only speculate but likely was suppressing the price prior to this recent rise.

[football] 28/9/2016 17:23

patviera insider trading 100% here every time there is any good news here

[luminoso] 28/9/2016 17:01

I have lost count of how many times I have seen large shareholders / institutions declare their selling of their holding retrospectively to cover a longish period of activity. I believe there is even a dispensation for those selling consistently over a period of time, to not declare each threshold as it happens. Even if an insti should be held to account for their tardy declarations, who is going to do it, the AIM sherrif ?! AIM makes the Wild West look like Toytown at times.

[patviera] 28/9/2016 17:00

PoseidonIf there is a placing in next few weeks the seller can end up in jail as that's insider tradingHe bought stock when the book was 90pct filled yet Glyn preferred his friends to make all the bucks by reducing the price from 9p to 6pI will be watching events here v closely as if a major sholder sells before a placing that's a v serious breach of Stock exchange rules

[poseidon2] 28/9/2016 16:34

Please do.

[patviera] 28/9/2016 14:54

luminoso
he has to declare whenever he goes thru percentage mark
so this mustve been done v recently
after the shenanigans of recent placing i reckon hes getting liquid to buy in another one
lets see ig my hunch is right

its this sort of rns that makes me want to sell all my summit

[luminoso] 28/9/2016 12:03

I don't think that RG has taken advantage of the recent rise in price to sell, because from the rns it is clear he has been selling for some time. He has passed through three different thresholds - 5,4,and 3 %. I don't think he could have done all that since the rise in price or on the 26th. It would help to explain the extreme weakness in share price over the last months. Its one of those RNS's that refer to a whole episode of selling, which may have been over several months. Its around 2 million shares. His reasons may be one of or all of the reasons suggested above. I don't think any one entity has taken his shares - just the market soaking them up and the recent renewed interest soaking them up quicker. All IMO.

[patviera] 28/9/2016 12:02

Rubbish hyperHe sold into retailHe got in 25oct under where placing book was 90pct coveredAsk hybridan..was scandalousNow selling why??!!If their is a placing I will be fuming