Stv Share Discussion Threads

[crawford] 18/1/2012 19:06

Listening to interview - margins are increasing and will continue to increase - like that statement a lot.

[crawford] 18/1/2012 15:12

Quite honestly - it baffles me why ITV haven't take STVG out by now.

[crawford] 18/1/2012 14:55

puntersez,
I think the market is waking up to the fact that STVG is a different animal now. It no longer has the baggage of Pearl & Dean so it's profits and margins will be higher than before.

It definitely overswung to the downside because it's quite illiquid - that's why you will get jumps like today.

I think it will take a while before the market reprices this - by that I mean above 170p.
Best not to look at the P/E alone, the low valuation is because of the debt and pension IMHO.
As the debt falls which I expect to be quite quick - the market cap part of the Enterprise value will rise very quickly - that's the bit I'm looking forward to.

Current market cap is ~£38m with debt around £50m, profits this year ~£14m and next year ~£16m.
If the enterprise value was 10x profits (£14m) then EV = £140m.
Take £50m off that and market cap deserves to be at £90m (say 227p a share - which is around Peel Hunt's price target of 225p incidentally).

If we shave £20m off the debt over next two years then we have:
Net debt £30m
10x profits (£16m or so) = EV £160m.
Take £30m off that and market cap deserves to be at £130m (say 328p a share).

It's a bit of a geared play, the figures above are just very rough to show what I'm hoping for. I'm sure others can explain it better.

Anyway, cashflow here is very high, so as long as the economy and revenues stay where they are then I would hope for capital gains over the next few years.
Current broker forecasts are looking at increasing profits - I guess we will see how things go. We need another 18 months to finish the ITV payments too.

I should say that management are looking at a better less risky provision of the pension - that's why I would like to see some news on this front.
The digital diversification also seems to be doing very well, certainly beating their KPI's over the last year or so.
I would also expect them to launch further initiative to the market - perhaps beyond their Scottish borders over time. The market ignored their webpage hit rates last month when really they shouldn't have.

They do have good production cababilities (as seen in the recent Perez shows for ITV2) - they need to win more business on this side. I also like their antique series for BBC2.

Anyway, I don't want to be out and out bullish here but so far so good IMHO.

[puntersez] 18/1/2012 14:24

30% gain his week. is the market waking up to the 2.5x PE Crawford?

[crawford] 18/1/2012 13:50

The House broker Peel Hunt is looking for 41.83p EPS this year. I still expect they will reinstate a dividend here.



Don't forget the Olympics this year which should give them a revenue boost.

[crawford] 18/1/2012 13:40

roundup,
thanks for those comments, now wait for the market to catch on!

[crawford] 18/1/2012 13:38

JONNO1,
thanks for that link, I'll watch it tonight - clearly it must have very bullish comments.

One think I would like STVG to make further progress on is the pension provisioning. A deal similar to ITV would be most welcome...

At the current share price and with ITV at new highs and us at near lows, we remain VERY vulnerable to a takeover IMHO.
I would like to see a swift recovery from here to protect us.

Having bought at 170p last year, I am a bit envious of those buying today.

The market as a whole swung too low last year, clearly there is a higher appetite for taking risk so far this year.

[roundup] 18/1/2012 13:37

I'm after listening to the above interview and I must say it is very upbeat.This company is on the up and up; reducing debt and increasing profit. National business back to levels before resessing with margins increasing. The only disappointing thing is that pension deficit was not mentioned.

[jonno1] 18/1/2012 11:18

scroll down interview with Rob Woodward

[crawford] 18/1/2012 10:29

There are no broker updates that I can see, the volume is significant though.

I took a small T+20 out last Friday as I felt it had bottomed.

[roundup] 18/1/2012 10:14

Good buying today, must be something afoot

[crawford] 16/1/2012 16:32

44,886 buy showing from earlier must have helped.

[professor x] 16/1/2012 14:09

I hope so Crawford, I have just added.

[crawford] 16/1/2012 13:44

np,
It looks to have turned around. I think a lot of buyers have been holding off until they see a firm upwards movement.

[puntersez] 14/1/2012 16:11

yes - appreciated thanks Crawford

[puntersez] 14/1/2012 16:10

yes - appreciated thanks Crawford

[crawford] 14/1/2012 15:57

Davydoo,
you're welcome :-)

[davydoo] 14/1/2012 11:20

crawford appreciate you keeping the board updated, i still hold some and follow your posts, just don't have anything i can add.

[crawford] 14/1/2012 09:55

Late 16000 share purchase.

[crawford] 13/1/2012 13:55

Tipped in this weeks shares magazine.

It says to buy STVG ahead of next month's trading statement.
Says that ITV shareprice up as viewing figures for the ITV network were nearly 30% compared to 22% on Christmas day and the rise in the ITV share price hasn't been mirrored in UTV/STVG.
They reckon the viewing figures should boost STV and help in their debt negotiate ahead of next year.

[crawford] 11/1/2012 16:53

Henderson nibbling.

[wskill] 28/12/2011 13:33

Bought a few more today 85p is a gift with the net cash impact of the settlement of GBP4.8m to ITV and dividends are to be resumed at the year end what is there not to like about STVG all the skeletons are out the closet on a PE of 2 .

[crawford] 17/12/2011 15:16

Impressive:

TIDMSTVG

STV Group PLC

09 December 2011

Friday 9 December 2011

Record traffic numbers to STV Online and outstanding audience share on STV following hurricane in Scotland

STV reported its strongest online performance and exceptional audience share for news programming as a result of the extreme weather in Scotland, demonstrating its reach and connection with its audience.

Termed 'Hurricane Bawbag' by the Scottish public, news coverage of the storm saw the broadcaster breaking all previous record highs with users flocking to the site and evening news programme to view footage and updates on the disruption caused by the weather.

STV online saw its best ever single day of traffic on Thursday 8 December.

Total unique browsers hit 556k, 111% higher than STV's previous record of 263k during the 2010 Big Freeze. By way of comparison, the average number of daily unique browsers for November was 151k.

The website saw almost 2 million page impressions, which was 125% ahead of its previous best of 856k in December 2010. The average number of daily page impressions on the STV website in November was 574k.

Total videos views reached a new one day high of 405k. The River Clyde camera recorded the most streams with 61k, with the Top 10 videos all weather related.

STV's news programme STV News at Six achieved a record audience, which was almost double the Network share. The programme achieved an extraordinary average audience of almost 800k viewers (37% audience share).

Over 184,000 viewers tuned into current affairs programme, Scotland Tonight, which focused on the weather as its top story and discussion point.

STV's weatherman Sean Batty was trending in the UK on Twitter and saw his followers rise by some 4000 as a result of his frequent updates on the weather situation yesterday.

Bobby Hain, Director of Channels at STV, said:

"STV broke all previous record highs and the performance across all our platforms demonstrates how we are now reaching huge audiences as a digital media business. Our news and online teams worked around the clock yesterday, braving the weather to bring the most up-to-date and shocking tales, and the unprecedented levels of traffic and impressive viewing shares are testament to this comprehensive and wide-ranging coverage."

For more information, please visit www.stv.tv.

To keep up-to-date with Scotland's weather, follow Sean Batty on Twitter: @SeanBattySTV.

Contact:

Kirstin Stevenson, 0141 300 3670 or 07803 970 106

This information is provided by RNS

The company news service from the London Stock Exchange

END

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