Stv Share Discussion Threads

[crawford] 01/7/2011 13:46

Good recovery in ITV this week, rumours of a takeover, where does that leave us!

[yoyoy] 28/6/2011 12:49

Now all we need are their resignations

[crawford] 28/6/2011 12:43

Nice to hear our distressed fund has now sold out of here, that should remove the over-hang they were creating.

Artificially low IMHO.

[crawford] 24/6/2011 12:59

Some big lines going through this week, it will be interesting to hear who the buyer is.

[crawford] 21/6/2011 14:11

I think we have over £300m in tax losses, what would that be worth to the likes of ITV?

Sitting duck comes to mind.

edit - yes results show:
Accumulated losses (324.6)

[crawford] 17/6/2011 09:55

They're taking a poor price IMHO, they did the same last year around the 105p level.

We're right at the bottom of the uptrend, I didn't think we'd fall this far after the closure of the litigation.
House broker has a 263p price target, maybe optimistic with the current markets but anything under 200p is cheap IMHO.

From the broker note (what the Scottish newspaper article at the time more of less stated):

"Terms of the settlement: STV Group has agreed to settle all current and future legal actions with ITV for an aggregate £18m. This is made up of cash of £5m, programme rights of £11m and other credits of £2m. STV Group proposes to move from being a co-commissioner of programming to an affiliate on a 'pay as you go' basis. This has been broadly agreed by ITV, but the details have yet to be finalised and set contractually.

What this really means: The change in status allows the group to accelerate the unwinding of a working capital position with respect to ITV Network stock (TV shows, film and sports rights), a one-off net benefit of around £11m. This will be passed to ITV. Going forward, STV will no longer contribute to the production costs of any programme (in advance of its broadcast), but effectively
pay for it at the time of broadcast. Programme prices will remain protected by the OFT. The net effect of this is significantly reduce the amount of working capital required in the business; there is no P&L or cash cost to STV Group."

[crawford] 16/6/2011 13:54

Topped up, would be rude not to.

[crawford] 14/6/2011 18:06

Henderson taking out some CFDs, crossed 11%.

[crawford] 14/6/2011 09:02

Just looking in from my vacation.

Hanover is slowly selling out - they're linked to the director mentioned so I treat them as one and the same. Once they're out I would hope that the director leaves too. Looks like they're wanting to raise cash.

[felix99] 13/6/2011 22:19

Its Hanover selling out basically - not too much more to go hopefully

[roundup] 13/6/2011 21:03

Well we haven't been doing so well the last few days. Looks like nearly all sells today. Is this a result of directors selling, or some other problem not yet known to small shareholders?

[cockneyrebel] 06/6/2011 16:00

Chart turning up for another leg here imo.

CR

[crawford] 06/6/2011 15:23

Should start moving up soon.

[crawford] 06/6/2011 12:45

CB7,
I stand corrected, amended my post.

Been quite a few large trades in the past week, some more today I see.

[cb7] 06/6/2011 12:11

p/e ratios are worked out from PBT, not EBITDA. A 16.5m pbt in 2013 divided by 38m shares gives just over 43eps (as the broker note suggests)....so £4 would put STVG on a p/e just over 9.

[davydoo] 03/6/2011 16:20

Looks like it. A lot of odd tiny trades today too. Who buys or sells shares with a value lower than a dealing fee?

[crawford] 03/6/2011 16:14

2 x 250,000 trade this week, now another 2 x 214,191 trades today.

Stock changing between institutions?

[davydoo] 01/6/2011 18:26

Great summary crawford, thanks. I wonder if many other people are reading this board and taking an interest, certainly attention and volume of trades makes it appear under the radar at the moment.

Reminds me a little bit of DWN, also once a much larger co, with a higher mkt cap, that has gone through huge change and losses, and probably with a fair share of past shareholder casulties, but taking a fresh look shows a good little focused profitable company.

[crawford] 01/6/2011 17:19

Quick update, always good to analyse one's investments.

Current EV is £96m (Mcap £51m and Net debt £45m).

EBITDA forecasts by House broker (after the litigation impact):
10: £16.9m
11: £19.7m
12: £20.8m
13: £22m

and Profits before tax (PBT):
10: £11.1
11: £14.2
12: £15.3
13: £16.5

I think it conservative that net debt should be eliminated from the current £45m by 2013 (the company converted 138% of operating profit to free cash flow during the year).
In fact, I'd be surprised if they didn't have a £10m surplus (remember they
won't have any tax to pay so the above figures should be after tax figures). However, some dividends may be paid out by this time so I'll assume no net debt or net cash surplus.

So with EBITA of £22m for 2013, a reasonable EV would be ~£155m for a P/E of 7 (i.e. very conservative).
No debt to subtract, so we get to £155m market cap target. That is THREE times the current share price.
I wouldn't be surprised to see a £4 share price in two years time, remember this is for a P/E target of 9!!


I don't think we'll stay at this level too long; it's rather uncomfortable because it's in takeover territory which is possible (notice that Blackrock holds significant stakes in STVG and ITV).

The house broker had a 186p target before the positive litigation news; after the news they increased it to 263p which I think is a fair target over the next 9 months.

Certainly, we are way into value territory here IMHO, certainly I can't see a cheaper stock.

Reminder:
2010(actual) 2011 2012 2013
Adj EPS (p) 32.9 37.4 40.2 43.4

[davydoo] 31/5/2011 11:33

Thanks crawford and horneblower

[crawford] 31/5/2011 11:30

HB's latest chart:

[crawford] 28/5/2011 20:38

Taggart been dropped by ITV, doesn't really affect profits:

[crawford] 26/5/2011 11:49

Ok, cheers.

[davydoo] 26/5/2011 11:28

I was the 2000 traded on PLUS