Stv Share Discussion Threads

[cheeseflame] 12/12/2024 15:29

ITV has other fish to fry. No-one else would touch it with a barge-pole. Bull case for independent STV is that it is still profitable when - finally - pension payments cease in 2030. But on current course, it's a bust well before then. Debt already up c£40m in three years and climbing further (with or without the dividend). Acquisitions have been a hubristic disaster. First rule of business: don't run out of cash...

[bedford1976] 11/12/2024 21:39

Sounds like tine to sell up to ITV or Canal+. Cannot see STV lasting much longer as an independent.

[cheeseflame] 11/12/2024 14:27

This business is in way more trouble than it looks on surface. Debt is climbing fast, but disguised at H1 by temporary working cap inflows. Even with flat profits this year and next, debt climbs further given pension payments, interest, acquisition costs.... Could easily get close to covenants and jeopardise refinancing. So the dividend will go entirely or be trimmed.

[absolvesilver] 04/12/2024 12:44

2%-3% ad growth means net ad revenues will be down given the new commission paid to ITV. With costs creeping up, broadcast and online profits likely to fall. Studios is a black box, but lack of any guidance either way suggests flattish yoy (= well down ex-acquisitions). Overall flat profits will mean further increases in debt and interest payments. And next year ads will be down in H1 at least given absence of Euros, which could threaten the dividend. Hard to see why shares have come back...

[absolvesilver] 02/12/2024 17:01

"The acquisition strategy in STV Studios is helping us to deliver in a tough market"!? Oh dear, sounds like more shareholders' money being splurged on failing production companies. More of the same. Share price halved before, why not halve it again...

[cheeseflame] 26/11/2024 16:15

Strong performance today, but a few oddities in their statement. Advertising was up 15% in H1, up 5% in Q3 and will be down 10% in Q4. But that adds up to 2%-3% for full year? That maths just doesn't work.

Broadcast is in decline. Growth this year will come off next, with no big sporting event. Likely to be down >5% and maybe more than 10% in 2025.

Digital is really just extension of broadcast - ITV supply the programmes and the advertising. Not really a platform in its own right. Digital viewing was actually down in H1 with no update today.

No more guidance on Studios, but forward order book is down. It will probably come in this year in line with 2023, but only thanks to the addition of Two Cities, which really is not a very good performance. And big chunk of Two Cities order book already been and gone with Amadeus having wrapped.

Note also STV referring to more of its Studios work as 'producer for hire' work for streamers. That means one-off production fee, not long-term benefit. Looks like most of STV's order book falls into this category.

[cheeseflame] 25/11/2024 13:10

Down below £2 again, implying market cap under £100m. But with underlying debt approaching £40m and >£50m of pension payments, that is still a 10x multiple vs EBIT at £20m, so may well fall further.

[bedford1976] 18/11/2024 15:31

I just think these guys need to sell up to ITV and let's just take ITV paper...no point dragging this out any longer as an independent.

[cheeseflame] 30/10/2024 11:01

Known costs of Greenbird to date - £24m consideration, £4.4m for put option to buy out Crackit, another £6m to buyout Tuesday's Child, acquisition costs £2.4m, integration / restructuring costs £1m = >£35m and climbing. All this spend to bolster a production arm which lost money so far in 2024 (with the only profits coming from yet another new acquisition Two Cities). Makes SMG acquisition of Ginger Media all those years ago look like good business...

[cheeseflame] 02/10/2024 09:12

Pension update v disappointing: still on hook for funding at same level, despite quadrupling of discount rates massively reducing liabilities. Not sure what their investment strategy has been...

[cheeseflame] 30/9/2024 14:15

It gets worse: Studios profits also reported before hefty minority interest to other shareholders in Crackit and Tuesday's Child. Backing this and Two Cities out, STV Studios actually lost £2m in H1. And this still includes a positive contribution from STV's share of Crackit and Tuesday's Child. So losses for the core STV Studios business must have been greater still. Shockingly poor performance.

[cheeseflame] 16/9/2024 18:36

Not sure ITV is interested. Lack of quality unbiased coverage of STV + hands-off shareholders means no pressure on Board to do the necessary, so it just drifts. eg the guy who drove the Greenbird disaster has just been promoted!

[bedford1976] 09/9/2024 11:51

STV really needs to get talking to ITV and sell up. STV really does not have a place in the modern day media environment it's all about scale now, and STV is simply not big enough to stay independent.
Maybe UTV studios can turnaround the disastrous Greenbird acquisition.

[cheeseflame] 04/9/2024 18:57

Really? Excluding the acquisition of Two Cities, Studios revenues fell sharply. Indeed, across STV Studios and Greenbird, revenues were down 50% yoy - and losses were £1.3m. Greenbird now looks to have been a very poor acquisition: £24m down the drain. Digital growth is well behind ITV and digital viewing actually fell. STV blame the Euros, but that didn't seem to hold ITV back. Broadcast benefited from the short term Euros boost to advertising, but costs were up again despite claimed cost savings. Yet more chunky exceptional items. And underlying net debt also rose, although masked by production funding which will reverse. Let's hope the new guy does better.

[pdosullivan] 03/9/2024 10:39

Excellent results today

[pdosullivan] 30/8/2024 11:21

New CEO looks like a quality hire

[pj84] 27/8/2024 07:43

"Panmure Liberum: STV’s commissions reflect studio quality

Scottish broadcaster STV (STV) has made a number of valuable commissions that reflect the quality of its studio business, says Panmure Liberum.

Analyst Jonathan Barrett retained his ‘buy’ recommendation and target price of 370p on the stock, which fell 2.5% to 265p at the end of last week.

It has announced five valuable series commissions that Barrett said are worth £25m in total.

‘Four are recommissions highlighting that repeatable series are delivering in a tough environment,’ he said.

‘This also builds on the five commissions, including two high-value series, announced in July. We estimated they were worth within a range of £10m-£15m in total. Taking all of this into account and existing commissions we think the studios now have visibility of £85m for 2025 and 2026.’

It has enjoyed a strong of commissions in a production sector ‘which is still getting back on its feet’, which Barrett said ‘reflects the underlying quality of the studios business that has been created’.

‘Increasingly 2024 looks likely to be just a blip driven by extreme external factors for studios and the £140m 2026 revenue and 10% margin targets appear very executable providing some underpinning for 2026 estimates,’ he said."

[pj84] 09/8/2024 00:06

"STV (STVG) and ITV (ITV) – Free-to-air TV might seem an obvious area of structural decline, but both STV and ITV have sizeable production businesses within the group. These businesses are growing and serving a global audience. For example, STV won a series commission from Netflix in March. Meanwhile, free-to-air television still commands a significant audience that remains difficult to replicate online in its ‘brand-building’ ability. Investors may eventually begin to think of STV and ITV as studio businesses with a free-to-air business attached, which would lead to a very different group valuation"

[livewireplus] 05/6/2024 09:33

A reasonable Trading Update issued this morning .... :-)

[bedford1976] 19/3/2024 17:53

Now we are going great guns in studios it might be worth merging with Zinc Media Grouo.

The synergies could be beneficial for both parties to get more critical scale.

I think Zinc shareholders would love our dividend.

[pdosullivan] 05/3/2024 22:50

Trading on a mid single digit PE and offering a mid single digit dividend yield, STV is priced like an income stock but the strategic pivot to the attractive Studios and Digital verticals - supported by the Broadcast cash cow - makes this a growth stock to my mind.

[justiceforthemany] 05/3/2024 19:37

6x P/E only
Advertising up on 2023 also

[pj84] 23/2/2024 23:04

Looks like the trend has changed lets hope that means some good news in the upcoming results.