Strix Share Discussion Threads

[gary1966] 28/9/2022 18:40

Pretty good day here, all things considered. Shame about the previous 5. Gap on chart at 138.6p may be an initial target.

[brucie5] 22/9/2022 10:44

Thanks Edmonda. I fully expect £1 to be a significant line of resistance, as it usually is. This remains afaic a great niche business with an IP moat and a dividend. So for me it's a question of the right price at the right amount of risk.
What do we make the prospective dividend now?

[edmonda] 22/9/2022 09:06

#KETL - signs of recovery emerging in China (new research note) - full link here:

In a challenging period for Strix it has successfully grown both its Appliance and Water Categories, while taking measures to mitigate a slowdown in Kettle Controls. Historically, the Group managed a rapid turnaround in its Kettle Control revenues as discretionary spend rebounds. We think this period will be similar, with Chinese demand picking up in Q3 ‘22 and OEM backlogs set firm into Q1 ’23. Whilst there is undoubtedly pressure on disposable income across the world, a combination of numerous product launches across several platforms, price increases, and a rationalisation of the cost base should limit the pressure on profitability. Nonetheless we have reduced adj. EPS estimates by 12% in FY22 and by 6% in FY23.

The stronger H2 bias to trading should result in a recovery of revenues in the remainder of the year, aided by the combination of the price increases, product launches, rationalisation benefits, and the rebound in Chinese demand. The share price currently stands at a lower level than in the depths of the COVID-19 lockdown uncertainty and since 2018. Based on our new estimates we have updated our DCF and several peer group comparison valuation models. The average suggests a fair value of 236p, which stands at a significant premium to the existing share price (+102%).

[games] 21/9/2022 23:15

As the reason for discrepancy

From last statement

[games] 21/9/2022 23:13

Poss cancelled or delayed orders

[bend1pa] 21/9/2022 17:40

"Just a couple of months ago they were saying that trading was inline with expectations “Current profit after tax consensus for year ended 31 December 2022 is GBP32.2m”

Seems a substantial downgrade on that. I’ve lost a bit of trust here."
===================================================
Yes, it does seem that the closing statement STRIX put out 2 months ago was a serious lie, or misleading at the very least. The FCA should be on their backs for that. But I'm not sure whether their authority extends to IOM companies. It looks like shorters got wind of the genuine situation many months ago

[sharw] 21/9/2022 16:46

You should ask them that - there is a webinar at 11 30 next Wednesday. You can register here: www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/news-and-events/strix-fypresentation-28sept2022

[bothdavis] 21/9/2022 16:43

Once again.....you either trust the management that has steered the company through 4 to 5 years of unprecedented upheaval....or you sell.

[elsa7878] 21/9/2022 14:29

I agree. How does inline on July 21st with "robust" kettle control sales correspond to a reduction in control sales of 12% including 20% in the UK. It was after the period end. Very disappointing.

[dr biotech] 21/9/2022 14:02

Just a couple of months ago they were saying that trading was inline with expectations “Current profit after tax consensus for year ended 31 December 2022 is GBP32.2m”

Seems a substantial downgrade on that. I’ve lost a bit of trust here.

[scooper72] 21/9/2022 13:15

Are they likely to continue with their decent dividend? The last interim and final div came to over 8p per share according to HL. If they are able to keep it at that level it could pay some decent income and help share holders with their cash flow needs in times of high inflation.

[brucie5] 21/9/2022 12:47

My observation from June 10th:

Brucie510 Jun '22 - 17:13 - 706 of 748 Edit
0 0 0
Share has now fallen below 50% of peak, suggesting further decline to at least previous low of £1.20. Though 25% of peak would of course be 95p.
One for the watch to buy list. But not yet, IMHO.

[kristini2] 21/9/2022 12:25

is the market concerned about the chinese investment and link to the region ?

[buoycat] 21/9/2022 12:18

Margins up which seems impressive to me

[scooper72] 21/9/2022 11:39

Yep. My holding in Strix is now down 40 percent and while I am tempted to average down I don't think it is necessarily the time to be greedy yet.

[sphere25] 21/9/2022 10:46

Price 121p
Market Cap: £254m
Net Debt: £61m
EV: £315M
Estimated PAT: £27m-£29m

Does that look very expensive?

But this is the thing with this market, in the near term, not only does it look expensive but the market keeps selling it down. You also still have shorts in this, with one increasing recently and that is despite the level of move down here.

There will naturally come a time when it will pay enormously to just buy and hold. I'm looking in on the macro, the multiples, company updates and despite the substantial re-ratings, it still doesn't feel like the right time to start that process. I am going to come in and start nibbling for 2-5 year holds at some point.

That is however just an opinion and it might be the right time for others. Clearly the market doesn't believe KETL will get anywhere near those £27m-£29m numbers and the same can be said about so many other companies out there.

From a charting and shorter term trading perspective:

If you zoom out of the chart, this price is where KETL has bottomed in the past so it might be worth watching to see if any big buyers do eventually step in and try and clear the big sellers to try and form some type of bottom. Ideally want to see KETL getting bought up on warnings and continuing to hold particular price points.


If I had more faith in the central bankers, I would definitely be looking at some and nibbling away to just tuck away. However on the form they have been showing, in being almost detached from reality, it is hard to put faith in them and therefore find that bullish hat.

They have a saying on the other side of the pond: "You have been Powelled". I suspect alot more of that will follow. The top ten in the S&P trade on about a 24x multiple with the rest under 15 so alot have re-rated but the generals continue to hold up.

They are range bound really but a washout there to the low 3000's would cause a washout here and the bullish hat would definitely be in sight.

All imo
DYOR

[rik shaw] 21/9/2022 09:18

I'm not convinced by their use of 2020 figures as an alternative comparator when 2020 figures were well down on the trend. 2019 might have been a better comparator.

The most positive statement in the results is 'The new factory within Zengcheng district in Guangzhou, China, is now fully operational and will double the Group's current manufacturing capacity enabling it to grow the business and deliver its stated medium term strategy.'

So all they have to do now is to turn the increased capacity into Revenue, profit and cash.

[brucie5] 21/9/2022 08:59

I should have said, Half decent results.

[wad collector] 21/9/2022 08:45

Well , they are down on revenue and profit so not sure how decent that is, but the Market is viewing all updates as half empty at the moment.

[brucie5] 21/9/2022 08:37

Decent results:down.

[mr hangman] 06/9/2022 15:46

Yep makes sense

[thorpematt] 06/9/2022 15:13

My kettle broke the other day. Upon further analysis I established that the element had failed (open circuit). Since it was a sealed unit it went in the bin. I bought a new kettle. Both have Strix tech inside. I did debate whether I should buy an Optima unit instead but in the end I did what nearly everyone will do and simply buy another kettle.

[mr hangman] 06/9/2022 10:21

Not sure about pricey energy caps, a new Kettle & Hot water bottle is the way forward

[epo001] 02/9/2022 10:44

I have to say I am little disappointed in Mr Market's muted reaction to Boris's suggestion that the proles should buy themselves new kettles. Damn good advice I think, perhaps buy 2.