Steppe Cement Share Discussion Threads

[danmart2] 14/9/2022 22:22

King Suarez

Excellent summary and I like your risk based approach

[king suarez] 14/9/2022 20:00

Sure, everybody has their own objective views on investments - that's kind of what this community is about? Sharing knowledge, ideas, opinions etc.

If you don't wish to divulge the reasoning behind your valuation assessment that's fine. I was just curious since you put such a specific figure on it..

I'm more of a fundamentals investor so if they look good I am always interested. Then I try to, in my mind, apply a bit of a relative risk weighting to knock off something in the target price depending on the jurisdiction etc.

Steppe is in very good financial health, so that is one risk removed (AFAIK) i.e no debt worries, nor large capex requirements. The tax issue is obviously weighing on sentiment at the moment and wider economic woes, however Steppe is one of the most competitive in the local sector, so should weather most potential storms I would have thought. On a free cash flow yield it is 'pretty cheap'.

ATB

[danmart2] 14/9/2022 19:28

I forgot to add, there is also a 25% overall weighting on subjective metrics such as the local economy, currency the company trades in, country of operations approach to businesses, etc .

It’s far from a perfect science

[danmart2] 14/9/2022 19:26

King Suarez,
I don’t put out my objective financial workings, I have a method which I have fine tuned which effectively scores different elements and gives them a percentage weighting.
It’s something I have adopted from years of reviewing contract tenders.

Is it a perfect system? No
Is it okay? Yes, it’s also on the more conservative side so your thoughts that Steppe is worth more than 38p is probably correct.

[king suarez] 14/9/2022 18:29

danmart2, thanks - I was more curious about the valuation itself, rather than the methodology. I think STCM is worth much more than 38p, so was wondering on what metrics you are valuing - some ratio of cash flow, profits etc?

[stun12] 14/9/2022 17:59

I've not seen anything about a share buyback, but am willing to stand corrected. It's a pretty dull sector but Steppe seems to have a good handle on it and pay a decent dividend (once it's sorted out, of course), using most of their spare cash to do so. The share price has been quite a bit higher than your valuation, also presumably on the company metrics at the time, and generally business has been improving while costs are under control.

[danmart2] 14/9/2022 17:42

It’s based on previous pre covid profit and turnover and then I consider the general Kazak economy current condition and outlook.

No doubt the Kazak construction industry will be benefiting from the oil and gas price boom with local demand for construction material likely to be healthy.

Finally I read the previous yearly report and see how likely the forecast, outlook, etc is likely to materialise.

So I come to my conclusion both from the financial metrics of the past but also the current demand for the product or service and the companies current ability.

[king suarez] 14/9/2022 17:34

Out of curiosity, how do you arrive at a valuation of 38p, if you don't mind sharing?

Thanks

[danmart2] 14/9/2022 17:30

Thank you for the replies.

I’m not sure any of the dividends is baked into the price, I value Steppe at 38p.

If they don’t pay a dividend, how likely is the share buy back?
Will we see a huge buy one evening/morning outside of trading time and an RNS soon after?

[stun12] 14/9/2022 15:28

I think they want to pay 5p, but obviously are being stymied from doing so. It's never gone ex-div as there has been no formal declaration. As for how much is in the share price...who knows? On the basis that the divi is not certain at this stage, maybe half of it?

[zangdook] 14/9/2022 15:26

No need to speculate, they told us it will be 5p.

[danmart2] 14/9/2022 15:21

Hi,
Long term watcher and disappointed I didn’t get in when the shareprice was under 30p.

Any speculation on what the likely divided if paid will be?
I’m trying to work out if it’s already baked into the share price.

[mattjos] 14/9/2022 14:43

Sharepad has alerted that on 8th September the Profit forecast for STCM has been suspended & Broker Forecast is now 'No Opinion'.
Interim Results are supposedly Friday 16th

[elpirata] 14/9/2022 12:16

from 13 June RNS It is the understanding of the Board that confirmation from the Malaysian authorities will be forthcoming shortly.

3 months on and counting...

[dodger777] 14/9/2022 11:00

Chinese president is in Kazakhstan today, did anyone email him to remind him ask about our dividend 😏😆

[zangdook] 13/9/2022 16:07

33.875 x 88,543

If he pays £6 commission per trade, he's putting in orders of £30k a time.

[scrwal] 13/9/2022 12:51

There won't be share buybacks as the money won't have been transferred up the chain to "STCM", it is stuck at the Dutch level.

[gutterhead] 12/9/2022 19:27

Share buyback isn’t returning capital to shareholders…I hope they don’t fob us off with that codswallop
I’d rather they pay the tax and then pay the reduced dividend

[bluemango] 12/9/2022 18:01

I think they will pay it, or they'll find an alternative way of returning earnings to shareholders:

"If the tax issue cannot be resolved without payment of the 24% rate, the Board will evaluate other means of returning capital to shareholders"

Share price has held up pretty well given the delay, which in itself is a promising sign.

[finkwot] 12/9/2022 15:48

I don't see them paying it. Worst case for me is this year's dividend is cancelled, or delayed until they carry out some sort of corporate perestroika.

[scrwal] 12/9/2022 13:47

Hopefully it should be soon as the dividend route is the only way to get funds up the group structure. There is no scope for capital schemes since funds can't be moved by that way at each level so worse case is that the group pays the wht in Malaysia.

[zangdook] 12/9/2022 08:27

When they sort out the tax thing, either way, they ought to RNS it immediately.

[my retirement fund] 11/9/2022 12:26

What, the conformation its not going to be paid again?. ....Oh sorry I mean delayed again

[gutterhead] 11/9/2022 12:02

dividend confirmation

[jeanesy] 11/9/2022 10:40

Interim results should be this week. What are people expecting?