Stanley Gibbons Share Discussion Threads

[don carter] 04/3/2005 07:44

Probably right, jwe.
5.1 eps below market and my expectations, but still a 41% increase which is excellent. All else sounds good, especially the new formation of a stamp investment fund for the expected tide of pension investing in stamps after April 2006 and the much higher divi than expected.

[kael] 04/3/2005 07:42

Think the growth may be understated also - would need a revised brokers note to go with the development of a stamp fund. If there is the scope that the report suggests there (to substantially exceed expectations) is then the forecast would need revising.

[jwe] 04/3/2005 07:39

EPS slightly below market expectations but the divi above it.PE around 18 now(which looks fully justified given the growth) and looking forward prospects look good.I expect a somewhat neutral effect on the price with maybe a little profit taking,but this remains ,in my view,a solid growth stock.

[stillbroke] 04/3/2005 07:22

Stamp fund sold by IFAs could be mega.

[alwaysphoto] 04/3/2005 07:20

Fab Results - Fab Company!

[kael] 04/3/2005 07:03

Well I got the raised divi and cash amount right ;)

Puzzled by the 5.1 eps tho.

This looks interesting:

"We have cemented our position as the UK number one adviser in stamp
investment and I am very excited about the prospects in 2005 with the creation
of a stamp investment fund. Progress in this area represents a key opportunity
to substantially exceed expectations."

"We are taking the next step to set up a stamp investment fund with the support
of a major international bank. There has been considerable interest from
investors who would rather own units in a fund than have their own individual
stamp portfolio. We believe there should be a very positive knock-on effect from
a fund owning a large chunk of extremely scarce material both in the prices at
the top end of the market and as demand and prices then cascade down to the
lower levels."

[kael] 03/3/2005 16:32

Greg, comdirect dont have any shares...

[gregory0106] 03/3/2005 16:18

I am sure comdirect are sitting on more than just the one batch of 7500 shares, but would be nice if that was all they did have!!

Noticed the spread is still showing unchanged, but latest purchase has been done at 99p whereas the earlier ones were 88p so has shifted upwards today - a good sign for the morning i hope.

[kael] 03/3/2005 15:42

LOL, you mean all of 5000 shares? There is hardly any stock around as it is.

[gregory0106] 03/3/2005 15:38

Kael, yes they will now buy back 15K from me at 95p but will only sell me 7500 at 98p - looks like they are holding stock back expecting to offload at higher price after the results...

[kael] 03/3/2005 14:25

not any more... :@)

[gregory0106] 03/3/2005 13:31

FYI - Comdirect will now buy and sell up to 15K of stock at those prices xdavid.

[xdavid] 03/3/2005 12:31

Just for old times sake, I couldn't resist having a look a how the MMs are positioning themselves. On Comdirect, they are playing a bit defensive, NMS is 15K if you are selling @ 95p, 7.5K if buying @ 98.75p.

So they are both offering to buy more stock off you, and giving better terms (1p inside yellow stripe) which puts real mid price around 97.3p against 96.5p on the screen. Both NMSs are quite conservative though which suggests to me that their own stock is pretty balanced and they wouldn't be able to supply too much, too quickly, on line.

[xdavid] 03/3/2005 11:15

Yep, I think the last couple of months has seen a lot of the traders leave for more "exciting" pastures. It wouldn't surprise me though if there were not some 'serious' investors waiting for the results to see if SGI continue to make progress - with a view to taking a minimum 2 year position in order to make good on the AIM CGT bonus.

I remember last years results which I only got to at the end of the day as I was expecting them the next day! I don't think we're in for quite the same excitement though - ah, good days... dribble, dribble...

[kael] 03/3/2005 10:48

Tbh I am slightly surprised that interest seems to be elsewhere. But understandable with this gambling phase the market is going through, hot money is flowing to these overpriced stocks. No doubt the bubble will burst once consolidation kicks in and debt rises.

The fact that SGI does not release an RNS stating when results are due also leads to thin volumes in the build up to results. However this is a bonus imo and keeps the fickle traders elsewhere and as such the share price remains comfortably supported, by long termers/institutions (Which have supported the price since the mid 70's). This ensures that if people do decide to invest in SGI, they are serious about their investment!

[xdavid] 03/3/2005 09:00

"...some seem to be expecting very very large profits & cash returns"

Who? Why?

In-house broker estimates growth of 47% for 2004. To me that is excellent (if/when achieved). Further 28% forecast for 2005 - nothing wrong with that either.

If you think Barclays are going to put in 28% growth in the next 12 months, be my guest...

[kael] 03/3/2005 08:25

We'll see soon enough!

[gregory0106] 03/3/2005 08:18

If my diary is correct, tommorrow is the big day - accounts published.

Must admit I am tempted to take the profit on 50% of my holding (Barclays look tempting again)just in case market is disapointed as some seem to be expecting very very large profits & cash returns. I am not so sure there will be much in the way of cash returned, but would expect decent profit growth & strong plans for future.

What is the opinion here - where do you see the price being 1 week / 1 month post results?

[xdavid] 02/3/2005 10:37

I think it's a sign of my confidence in SGI that I have not reviewed their interim accounts, in preparation for Friday. Mainly I'll just be checking to see how they are controlling costs, given the necessary increase in turnover, and also what plans they have for next year. Just a "business as usual" report would be nice enough to make next year's growth forecasts. No need for fireworks!

But a good divi increase would be nice :-)

PS. Good to see the speculative holders seem to be mostly out now.

[kael] 01/3/2005 23:15

As above and in relation to long termers - I believe we'll see them beat the divi forecast - I'm expecting 2p for the year to be paid (1.5p for final 6months), excluding the special divi, 10.5p for year inclusive.

They had around 900K in bank after the divis were paid out at interims and expect this to have swelled to 2 mil for year end which equates to 8p/share.

For info:

1p/share = £250K (rough workings)

Now unless they have some acquisitions planned for the future (which in a previous report they stated as a possibility), can't see the good in holding on to all that cash!

Edit: actually some of those figures may be wrong and im too tired atm to check, but the other source that the cash would be used for is buybacks, which they authorised at the AGM.

[getscenic] 01/3/2005 20:54

a little less speculative and more long term this time round. or maybe watching and waiting. anyway not long now.

[jojobt9] 01/3/2005 15:00

surely a little speculative buying in the next few days??????

[hectorp] 24/2/2005 09:17

KAEL, with this spread on this share there are few retail short term traders intersted. More people like me - longish term swing trading it, over a few months. Maybe a few months is short term to some. To me short term is a couple of weeks. I've not seen much Fund activity or large movements... its fairly quiet.

I decided to stick these in the SIPP Pension so unless we have any nasty surprises I will not be 'trading' them , not in 2005-6 .

[hectorp] 24/2/2005 09:13

No, I was being tongue in cheek, I dont expect that, it may come from the details in the results though.

[gregory0106] 24/2/2005 08:09

If its 120 before the results then there could be a lot of selling with you Hector. But if the figures beat the forecast it could well go higher.