Stanley Gibbons Share Discussion Threads

[biscuit2] 14/11/2004 15:48

Well there doesn't seem to be anything about a rumour in any of the weekend newspapers. I would have thought something would have appeared if that was the case. My view is any bidder would have to pay such a premium on the curret share price that it would cancel out any benefit they would gain from the potential growth of the company over the next few years. That is just my view and I may be wrong!

[barnetpeter] 14/11/2004 14:39

Response from SGI - you can read it in different ways:

"I am unable to comment on rumors. Please be assured that any announcements will be made through the appropriate channels. Many thanks for your good wishes".

[gregory0106] 13/11/2004 18:38

Looking at the charts the current prices look like a resistance level. If it goes past 90p early next week, I would support view that there is some sort 3rd party interest i.e.takeover talk

[cambium] 12/11/2004 23:07

I hope you had a little meat on the bones of your email BP otherwise it might of been misconstrued.

Interesting debate though

[barnetpeter] 12/11/2004 22:47

Yes I am outvoted but none of you have explained why! It is EXACTLY the type of business that private equity is looking for: an international name, niche business with good cashflow, perfect for the internet ("Full integration of our Internet sites, producing over 10 million hits per month), growing profits, no debt and all at a current cap of £20 million. The Directors have been around for a while and may welcome an exit at a nice price. Would YOU turn down £1.60? £2.00?

This company will not be independent for much longer. We shall see ...

E-mail sent to SGI:

Can you confirm that SGI has been approached with a view to a takeover by a private equity firm? Will you be making an announcement shortly?

Please do not sell out too cheaply!

[ukhawk] 12/11/2004 22:23

Barnetpeter, looks like it's 4v1 then - good buying sign !!! (attempt at humour)

[xdavid] 12/11/2004 19:54

yesterday morning (which was the start of the 2 day rise) there was a 22,429 buy @78.5p
At end of day yesterday, a "single protected transaction" of 75,000 @82p
At end of day today, a "single protected transaction" of 26,000 @90.5p
Total shares traded today: 208,700

Purely a trading rise I reckon. There were regular 5K buys throughout the day, possibly an order being filled. The MMs would have known about this and the 'single protected transactions' in advance.

I agree with CR & Kael, SGI is an illiquid stock and has risen like this many times in the past - often on less volume.

Just my 2p.

[cockneyrebel] 12/11/2004 19:16

No bid Barnetpeter - imo. This is very illiquid, 5K moves it.

Just enjoy it while it lasts :-)

CR

[kael] 12/11/2004 18:07

I guess the reason why I reject the possibility is that I dont think the board would inclined to accept one and the bidder would know this. They are cheap and they know it - they're not gonna just sell it off when they see they can take it on themselves. If I was in their position, no way would I think of selling it - the future is just too promising - it isn't always about a quick return, building a company up is far more rewarding.

[barnetpeter] 12/11/2004 18:01

Kael - I honestly think the company has had an approach. Must admit I expected a RNS this afternoon. They do not HAVE to tell us about an approach and maybe negotiations are going on. Let us all watch the press over the weekend.

Personally, I think it has nothing to do with undervaluation nor do mm's raise the bid so strongly on 40k net buys. On the other hand, I fully agree that the SGI name is well worth £2 plus. It is strange that you list all the reasons why SGI would make a great buy for a lot of other companies and then reject the possibility. There are few independent "names" like this left and it is so cheap at 20 milion cap for someone looking at this sector - particularly if they can use their paper.

Only a matter of time.

[ukhawk] 12/11/2004 17:48

Kael, I agree with you that a bid is unlikely, but this has taken off on the back of the QXL news. If there wasn't that speculation then this probably would have only drifted up during the next month and then taken off prior to the results.
I'm miffed though because I was planning on getting back in again in a couple of weeks !

[kael] 12/11/2004 17:35

Sorry, but I have to say that a bid is unlikely.

Where where all the cries of bid when this was jumping 20% in a day earlier on this year and last? The jump today comes down to plain and simple "undervalued". It only takes one astute investor to go over the figures and realise that his/her money will grow here, place a large order and then the other lemmings will follow.

A bid would be welcome but if you think the SGI brand is worth £1.20p per share then you need to do some research. Double that and you're getting close to the global value that SGI has. It is the leader in a fast growing niche alternative investment market and at £1.20p (say £35mil), it would be hugely undervalued, you can bet the board would refuse it outright.

SGI is a buy and hold, always has been and always will be. Go with it, dont try and double guess.

[biscuit2] 12/11/2004 13:22

This may have something to do with it from an ADVFN competitor:

"Stanley Gibbons took on 10% at 88p, yesterday revealing that autograph values are reaching unprecedented levels."

[biscuit2] 12/11/2004 13:19

Not so sure of a bid, and at a price of 120p I doubt they'd get it with the potential this company has over the next few years! I'm more inclined to think it's an institution buying. However I may be wrong!

[barnetpeter] 12/11/2004 13:16

Yes 2m. This rise is not due to a few buys or an instit buying a few. SGI is in play. It would be a brilliant fit with loads of net companies. The private equity have clearly decided "now or never" and are all over the quality small caps. Hold on tight!!!!!

[2magpies] 12/11/2004 13:11

BP

Yes, utterly unique brands like SGI and HRN, with worldwide recognition (especially SGI) must be sitting ducks!!

[don carter] 12/11/2004 13:11

I take both views, having a long-term chunk and having waited for my annual top-up with a trading batch. My guess is that something's brewing because there is a danger they've shut out some who might have topped up anywhere up to 90p. I'd say there's a big institutional buy to show up yet.

[biscuit2] 12/11/2004 13:10

It seems very sudden to me if the MM's are just upping the price I would have expected a more gradual rise. It may be just a large buyer out there. Unless there is a rumour going round. Will be interesting if the rise continues this afternoon after the lunchtime sellers have gone back to work. Let's wait and see!

[barnetpeter] 12/11/2004 13:06

Bid almost crtainly coming in for SGI - which is why the rise. Merrydown on wednesday, QXL today, all these type of companies are being pursued by the equity funds. Internet based companies are keenly sought after. I expect a bid at about 120p. Whether the directors / owners want to sell is another matter ...

[mad4it] 12/11/2004 13:01

I, of course, take a different view. ;)

But I guess it depends on how much time you can commit to the market and how experienced you are.

Plus, there was one of the most obvious buying opportunities I've seen for months, on the bounce off the long held 200 day MA. Obviously there were plenty of buyers who thought the same thing as me.

I didn't expect this kind of rise so quickly though.

[abergele] 12/11/2004 12:57

Xdavid,

Well said, thats the same point of view taken on the AHT share b/b.

The spread can be too prohibitive on this share, so stay onboard like
others cause once you sell it looses a great deal to get back onboard.

[xdavid] 12/11/2004 12:47

Possibly MMs decided that the game they played since the special divi has run it's course. They could see a lot of buying based on the news-flow and interest in the special divi, they moved the price down immediately after and have been buying back from the bored & disenchanted ever since for 10p lower than they sold them. At some point though this was going to play itself out and maybe they've read the runes and seen recent buying based on fundamentals rather than news flow. They now do not want to get caught by their pricing and so just moved it straight up. If they had moved it by only a small amount per day (like yesterday) then all the people waiting in the wings to 'get back in' would have had more warning and opportunity to buy at a knockdown price.

This is why I like just being patient - price only matters when you buy and sell - all that matters inbetween those points is the fundamentals...

[moneybags] 12/11/2004 12:09

I still think it is the M.M. moving the share up to where they want it.
And doing it off their own backs.If the market makers want a £1 share price then they will get a £1 share price.If they want £1.20 then so be it.
This happened last time it moved up.

[sundance 13] 12/11/2004 12:03

Blimey whats going on here then? Surely this can't be just down to the small stream of buys this morning?