Stanley Gibbons Share Discussion Threads

[hectorp] 23/2/2005 15:56

This is one set of results where I wont go by my usual rule of selling the day before the annoucement .
( unless its 120p the day before the announcement).

[kael] 23/2/2005 12:58

mm...lot of short term traders in here methinks. Any little fall and they get their knickers in a twist! Mm's love trading off the T-10ers, emotions rule and they read weak traders by the book. Tell me, have any institution sold?

[xdavid] 23/2/2005 12:23

Friday 4th March

[jojobt9] 23/2/2005 10:22

Greg: yes, a tad irritating with (hopefully) good news a week away.

[stillbroke] 23/2/2005 10:04

Following rest of market I think. All my holdings are down bar the oils.

[gregory0106] 23/2/2005 09:59

Down 2.5% today - anyone care to speculate on why?

When is the profit anouncement due?

[xdavid] 22/2/2005 12:45

"SGI rig their own market to a certain extent"

Oh how I wish that were true! I would love to invest in a company which had such pricing power. Fact is though that SGI currently only have about 2% market share of global stamp trading. They are also not currently even 1st choice when it comes to the premium level stamp auctions.

This is where the future growth of the company is going to come from though. The management intends to use the Gibbons name to put the company to the forefront of all stamp trading activities - where it deserves to be on name alone. Properly executed, the growth can roll on for many, many years.

[tipodochus] 22/2/2005 07:59

The point I was making is that SGI rig their own market to a certain extent & we should bear that in mind when they announce their profits. I have noticed that the share price seems to climb a bit a drop down a few points quickly, the imprtant thin will be to get over the resistance at just over 100!

Tipo (a dinosaur in so many ways)

[mad4it] 21/2/2005 19:08

Hectorp - Glad to hear you obviously know what you're doing. It's a minefield for the average punter. Well done on your profits.

[barnetpeter] 21/2/2005 19:03

Yes but that 105p high is daunting. Break that and away we go to 130p ....

[hectorp] 21/2/2005 18:57

Tipo - you only have to look at the 6 month chart! This goes up every few weeks then hangs .. and up again.

[hectorp] 21/2/2005 18:56

mad4it, dont worry I used to work for the auction house. An I only buy on guarantee of provenance. I was buying oils for £ 3-6 K 10-15 years ago now these paintings are selling for 10-15K in general. But I bought a Scottish Colorist ( a Peploe) for £8K and its worth £35K now, and I am not selling that one.

[kael] 21/2/2005 18:49

In the real world stamps go for a lot more, Tipodochus (dinosaur?). Hence why old collections are hardly sold on but kept over generations.

Of course the "common" stamps for the hobbiest have negligible worth, but that's not really where the profits are...

Reason for jump in share price, 2+2=4

[tipodochus] 21/2/2005 17:56

Hmmmm, and SGI print the catalogue by which they set a value for their stamps and guess what, it goes up every year. Of course we all know that in the real world the stamps sell for a lot less, around 10% in many cases.

Is there a particular reason for the jump in the share price today, have I missed something?

Tipo

[mad4it] 21/2/2005 16:07

Hectorp - Glad to hear you made a decent profit on your paintings. Actually, you might be one of the lucky ones, many people holding paintings might be in for a nasty shock when they try to sell them.

I used to be in the collectables business and it was well known in the trade that approximately 70% of all paintings coming to market purported to be genuine are actually fake...

...yep, 70%!!

What's more, the trusted icons of the industry, like Christie's & Sotherby's, 'allegedly' (for legal purposes I better put that in), have actively perpetrated a massive scam in false paintings (and other collectables) for decades. Let's face it, if S or C say a painting is genuine, they are rarely challenged over it.

[elmfield] 21/2/2005 15:46

best of luck, half thinking of T+10 a few.

[vikingraider] 21/2/2005 14:11

Hope so cos I've just topped up!

[jwe] 21/2/2005 13:19

Start of next leg up?

[hectorp] 18/2/2005 17:47

and - useful hedge against equity/cash gold failing one or more than one.
I held paintings for the least 12-13 years and on average, I'm up around 70%, sold them last year, not fantastic but they missed the tech bubble.

[stillbroke] 18/2/2005 11:38

Also more liquid and with a narrower spread.

[hectorp] 18/2/2005 11:09

Yes, I'd have thought for investments we'd be looking at stamps from say 250 to 1000 quid each, with some much higher. You might want around 30 stamps in your forlio to spread risk. = 10-20K of stamps, as a percentage of a SIPP.
I'll just hold SGI instead, more relible.

[kael] 17/2/2005 19:11

Well fundamentally it shows that there is strength in the market, estimating $1.9mil and receiving $3.3mil is considerable to say the least. SGI will benefit from a strong market - they may have even purchased some themselves. The key is the number of buyers, they are(Smiths) obviously releasing stock in the knowledge that there are buyers.

It is more interesting to note that many of the stamps were due to be destroyed, but the uproar caused by collectors made them change their stance and decided to put them to auction.

It is my impression that the fact that it took 35000 stamps to make $3.3mil, which equates (very roughly) to an average of around $100/stamp, indicates that these are not the high quality investment grade that SGI is specialising in, thus their negative impact upon the investment market is debatable to say the least, negligible to zero imo. Pretty much the same effect that micro caps have on the FTSE100.

However the strentgh of the market is what is important, people are buying these stamps and if they can afford to purchase $100 of stamps, what stops them from building on that in the future? Sentiment doesnt just apply in the stock market! Stamp collecting is a hobby and if you know some hobbyists, you know how passionate they can be about their collection. Hornby is a classic example of a renaissance in childhood hobbies, now those young hobbiests have the disposible income to really build on the hobby acquired when younger.

Prices of investment grade material have a long way to go with the coming changes in pension which can only increase turnover and together with the diminishing supply should push prices further, this is where SGI is making the real money, the rest of the buisness floats the boat and provides a good base from which to encourage collectors to re-evaluate what could be not just a hobby but a source of investment and income.

Regarding what price is attainable, that is dependent upon the time frame you are looking at. Just stick with the long term trend and how wrong can you go(till it changes of course ;)).

[tinker] 17/2/2005 16:03

kael 2174

Is there a danger that the Smithonian could ultimately reduce prices by liquidating free stock and what do SGI gain from this?

[jojobt9] 17/2/2005 14:34

kael: fear and impatience! exactly!

As a PET holder, Im well experienced with both emotions!

So, you think that 120 is still attainable even with this walking down?

[kael] 17/2/2005 14:09

I think rather than minimising the impact that the news have, the reason for small drops is due to the fact that if the mm's increased the price they would tend to encounter more buying (its true...) which would mean they would have to "develop" a supply shares to supply to the buyers - effectively going short. By reducing the price, this tends to attract more sellers and thus they can either reduce/close an existing short position, or accumulate stock that can be sold on the news to buyers.

It's a simple play on fear and impatience. Hence your paranoia :)

All you really need to focus on is volume and trend, if volume follows trend, then you can be (reasonably) happy. A bit of research also helps to quell the fear (paranoia).

edit: Just an eg. of vol. following trend (ok just happens to be SGI ;) )



Note volume increases on rises and decreases on falls.