Stanley Gibbons Share Discussion Threads

[spider1] 22/8/2006 08:19

I think it was a market maker tree shake yesterday as there was no volume. Now recovered.

[one for the money] 22/8/2006 08:10

Good move this morning - has there been an upgrade somewhere or just peeps buying in anticipation?

Cheers
john

[ygor705] 08/8/2006 21:24

Was expecting this one to move a bit more than it has while I was on holiday for a couple of weeks. Results look pretty good to me but the market is obviously looking the other way for the time being.

[gregory0106] 04/8/2006 16:57

Oops - so does mine now I look again - still means the same thing though (one rate down from a buy)

[tom.muir] 04/8/2006 15:22

my copy of IC shows it as 'good value'. Tom

[gregory0106] 04/8/2006 15:12

IC article today is +tive but not overly so. They rate it as "fair value" but warn that any slide in the stamp market will hit SGI (who would have thought!)

[pylewell] 03/8/2006 12:21

Good write-up in Shares Mag -

Although stamps still provide the bulk of its profit, Stanley Gibbons is trying to widen its base to include collectibles. Autograph sales have been very strong.
Interims showed sales up 44% at 7.6m. Operating profits almost douibled to i.28m. Gibbon's stamp investment fgund has been put 'on ice' but there is strong demand for investment grade stamps.
The company enjoyed strong demand for quality British stamps and of certain Commonwealth countries. There was a move to the higher end of the stamp market, which increased the average order value by 31%.
The website enjoyed 2 million customer hits - some 7% of collectors worldwide. The shares have risen six-fold since we first recommended them and are now selling on a PE of just over 14, having outperformed the market by 50% over the past year.
SHARES SAYS -
These results are likely to encourage the market further. BUY.

[gregory0106] 02/8/2006 12:01

The Stanley Gibbons Group Limited
("Stanley Gibbons" or "the Company")

Holding in Company

The Company was notified yesterday that on 28 July 2006 Bedlam Asset Management
disposed of an interest in the Ordinary Shares of Stanley Gibbons with the
result that it no longer holds a notifiable interest in the issued share
capital of the Company.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Well, that is unexpected - hence 4.5p dive (also ex-div today as well)

Anyone know how big their holding was or if they sold it on to anyone or just off loaded into the market?

Not looking so strong right now, but will be interested to see what Investors Chronical & Shares have to say on Friday as this will be their first post results issues. The IC normally has a strong buy on SGI as one of their favorite shares, so could prompt some interest.

[penpont] 31/7/2006 08:57

Saw that bit on the FT website, as below. It seems a little biased if not actually misleading and may have accounted for the small drop today.

Like its products this is best left to enthusiasts
By Alex Barker

Published: July 29 2006 03:00 | Last updated: July 29 2006 03:00

Edward Stanley Gibbons was an avid collector of stamps and wives. One hobby fed off the other, begetting six marriages and Stanley Gibbons, the world's oldest stamp dealership. Today the 150-year-old company, listed on Aim, is benefiting from a quiet revolution that is not without irony. Stamp prices - and Stanley's share price - have surged as more enthusiasts trade the goods online. Meanwhile, the supply of rare stamps is dwindling. So far, Stanley has made the most of this stamp rush, with half-year pre-tax profit almost doubling to £1.4m on sales of £7.6m (£5.9m). It even developed an investment fund to tap investor demand, but shelved the plans at the last minute after Afinsa, the stamp dealer, was accused in May of involvement in running one of the biggest scams in Spanish history. Stanley has nothing to do with the scandal. Indeed, its expertise and honest reputation may now be even more prized. Yet the Spanish affair underlines that Stanley works in an unregulated market in perishable and easily faked goods. Its shares, which trade at about 14 times 2006 earnings, are, therefore, best left to enthusiasts.Alex Barker

[nurdin] 27/7/2006 20:02

Felt like going down the memory lane and posting here.The share price has done well.Shame I took profits at 120p after 2 bagging.Those were the days!Still think the case for buying SGI now is as strong as it was then....

[qs9] 27/7/2006 19:54

Sorry goodnight, did not mean to come across as too aggressive or defensive, merely answering your posts.

Seymour Pierce have reiterated their forecasts, they are unchanged and a buy rating from what I see today.....that is at least a +ve given some of the questions raised today......lets see where their institutional road show goes....as I have said before, many times the actual day of the results may not be the best indication of where the shares are heading IMO....

[zetland post] 27/7/2006 15:29

I think they mean percentages. Stamp collectors are more active in the Autumn and most of the Gibbons publications are launched in the second half of the year. Investment business is more constant throughout the year though.

I wonder if that means they are expecting most of the H2 growth to be investment related, their figures dont give much of an indication in this regard. The area where margins would be tightest would be the publications IMO.

Re trading it all looks so easy on a graph in retrospect. Make 40%, sell at the top, wait 2 months and buy in again on the bottom for the next 30% or so up. The share price may not have moved after 12 months but you are up 100%. I have never managed it, I will occasionally buy near the bottom but selling at the top is much much harder. I suppose that is what stop losses are meant to do.

[cockneyrebel] 27/7/2006 11:48

I think it's the trader syndrome. Many are in expecting far more than they got I suspect.

Sales were up 48% in Q1, 44% for H1 so up 40% in Q2 approx - that shows sales growth slowing but not sales slowing, just the balistic sales pace.

The provisions for the investment side have trimmed a bit in H1 that shouldn't get trimmed in H2.

I suspect at the Q1 trading statement it was easy to expect a lot more but these are creditable results imo. The mystery is that statement about re-balancing earnings. I'm not sure how that plays out. If they are talking about absolute sales then it could mean less in H2. If they are talking percentages then after an 80% rise in H1 earnings it may mean a 40% rise in H2 earnings - that would be rebalancing in percentage terms but would also beat estimates with 9.4p eps in H2 making 13.3p for the year. I think they might just be saying don't expect 80% earnings growth in H2 perhaps.

CR

[zetland post] 27/7/2006 11:29

Agree mct

This is the sort of stock that aim tax rules really benefit. Anybody who bought in several years ago when the shares were peanuts and has held since without trading has very limited tax liability on the huge increase in value they have seen.

Unfortunately I missed the early increase but there is much more to come I am sure.

[mctmct] 27/7/2006 10:48

"short termers" selling immediately before "a leg up tomorrow"?

What kind of investment strategy is that?

[biscuit2] 27/7/2006 09:49

Yeah, my impression appears to be that SGI's growth is really starting to quicken.With these sorts of growth rates, the PE looks far too cheap in my opinion, it appears to be on a 4 year growth PEG of 0.26, very cheap.

[zetland post] 27/7/2006 09:49

Stamp index was up 7.3% in H1 (6.0% in 2005 H1), I dont think they give a breakdown in quarters for this.

For a company growing earnings at 80% during H1, to only increase overheads by 23% shows excellent cost control, employee numbers remained exactly constant as well, which may show their ability to retain staff.

Excellent results all round and the comment that trading in July, the first month of H2, has been particularily strong is encouraging for keeping the trend going for the rest of the year.

Only negative I can see is that there appears to be an increasing shortage of the best material available, but that may help to increase the prices of the second line material on the market and may not be a problem.

Interestingly the take up of their stamp investment fund appears to be limited by the company rather than by demand. In the sales section of the results notes they state that a combination of supply scarcity and internal controls have limited the sale of guaranteed minimum return investments.

[goodnight1] 27/7/2006 09:47

QS9,
I am not saying the results are bad just that there are a few worrying aspects. Generally they are as expected. I just think that £2 will come next year.

[tom.muir] 27/7/2006 09:39

" Trading during July 2006 has been particularly strong .... " That shows that the second half has started very well and bodes well for the year end.

[livinginhope] 27/7/2006 09:37

A bit of profit taking from the short termers before a rise tomorrow following favourable comment in the press. Anyone selling today will miss out on the next leg up to 200p. I don't see them dropping back below 150p today. It will be interesting to see if the brokers forecast eps for this year and next is changed following the excellent first half performance.

[biscuit2] 27/7/2006 09:33

Truely excellent results today, always get the drop early on as the short termers try to make a fast buck, these will move up later. The second half should show even stronger growth if past years are anything to go by!

[qs9] 27/7/2006 09:17

Goodnight:

1 GM falling has been explained
2 Overheads need to rise if they are going to grow the business, no company can keep overheads level or reduce if they are growing the rate SGI is AND the % of sales has fallen to 17%
3 H2 weighting still remains, but less so as they rebalance things, this has to be good
4 not sure on this one

Lets see what the brokers think.....but fairly illiquid stock so may see a fall before we see what reception their institutional visits have which is more key to me

[goodnight1] 27/7/2006 09:06

I don't think these results are that good.
1. Margins are falling
2. Overheads are up
3. Sales are not going to be as second half based - does this mean growth in the first half will be higher than the second half?
4. Stamp index is not showing the same level of growth as quarter 1

So we are looking at 10p this year but will there be 14p next year?
I think we need to see the full year results before these will get to £2.

[gregory0106] 27/7/2006 09:04

I was expecting the results on Friday - were they early, or was I just wrong?

Strange how such great results cause the price to fall away - oh well, hopefully some press coverage will get some more interest on the table & soon have the price back above 170 where it was before that spanish farce took hold. £2 before year end may be pushing it, bit in a bull market it could happen. £2 next year almost a certain in my view.