Stagecoach Share Discussion Threads

[bazzerp] 03/9/2009 17:32

Stagecoach Group has published a new press release:

03/09/2009
Stagecoach response to Competition Commission announcement

To read the press release, go to:

[jtcod] 03/9/2009 15:02

All depends how much we are paying for the two divisions and how much existing debt is being inherited as part of the deal. I think if they are going to issue equity it would have been sensible to have flagged it up today just to guage the markets reaction.

[essentialinvestor] 03/9/2009 14:19

This may prove to be a great opportunity for SGC.
I assume an equity issue to provide funding is likely.

[itchycrack] 03/9/2009 12:38

Got stopped out at 135p (from opening position at 141.2p) :-(
Oh well, just +6.2pts this time :-)
If there is a whiff the takeover is likley to be rejected I'll be back to short again. The share price seems to have some significant resistance at this level, but I'll await further developments for now...

[roundup] 03/9/2009 12:34

Has the itch got itchier

[jtcod] 03/9/2009 12:34

It would be a great deal for SGC imo.

[junior21] 03/9/2009 12:28

So far the market seems to agree with you jascat

[jascat] 03/9/2009 11:58

It appears Stagecoach has come to an agreement with the bidding consortium for NEX. They have agreed not to place any competing bid, in exchange for being allowed to purchase all NEX's bus & rail ops in the UK. The government has agreed to take back the east coast rail network.
This is a good deal for SGS & should see a jump in the share price if the takeover is agreed.

[jeffian] 28/8/2009 22:59

Short away, old son, but you'll be betting against the Souter/Gloag clan who increased their holding by around 7m shares in Dec/Jan at around 132p. Last time Souter put in so much (around £13m at 39p) he did rather well and I don't suppose he intends to lose much this time either.

[itchycrack] 28/8/2009 20:56

I can see this well below a quid before the end of the year (IMHO).
I opened a sizeable short at just over 141p.

[simon gordon] 28/8/2009 18:20

Evening Standard:

Wheels come off growth at Stagecoach
Robert Lea

28.08.09

The depths of the crisis at South West Trains was laid bare today as operator Stagecoach admitted underlying revenue growths have plummeted.

The latest figures sparked fears of just how lossmaking the Waterloo-based train company could become after analysts earlier this summer forecast a dive into the red of £150 million at SWT.

Stagecoach today said in May, June and July, like-for-like revenue growth at SWT and its other wholly owned train franchise, East Midlands Trains out of St Pancras, came in at 0.9%.

That is a slump compared with the 6.2% growth reported the previous 12 months. Although Stagecoach declines to break out figures, much of that decline is believed to be at SWT as East Midlands has hitherto been performing well.

This piles the pressure on Stagecoach founder and chief Brian, Souter who is currently engaged in a furious row with the Department for Transport over just when the taxpayer might begin to bail out struggling SWT.

The DfT has said SWT cannot expect any financial help until 2011. Souter has called the DfT "either dysfunctional or deceitful".

What is hurting SWT is the disappearance of first-class passengers while leisure travellers are declining.

[jtcod] 28/8/2009 15:50

You can bet that Mr S will have a strategy. Tripling EPS in 4 years whilst retaining the same staffing levels didn't happen by accident. ;-)

[jascat] 28/8/2009 14:50

I would think the competition gods would demand some severe disposals. I am sure SGC will not want all of NEX, just the prime parts. This would allow SGC to offload less profitable sections of the combined entity.

[jtcod] 28/8/2009 11:28

I hope they are right jascat. I think SGC is by far the best placed operator (financially speaking) to take NEX out. Though I would expect some spin off sales to other operators also.

[jascat] 28/8/2009 10:42

Small snippet from "This is money.com" regarding National express.

Stagecoach boss Brian Souter has decided to go it alone and has been busy putting the finishing touches to a £725m or 475p a share bid.

[jtcod] 28/8/2009 09:07

I think todays RNS could have been written better. It all boils down to one sentence imo:

"Trading conditions across the Group, and at our rail businesses in particular, remain challenging and we are experiencing further reductions in the rate of revenue growth."

Of course this means that revenues are still growing but at a reduced rate. I think they could have delivered this news in a more positive way. Clearly the biggest and most profitable parts of the business are still growing.

[jtcod] 27/8/2009 14:41

Thanks Simon

[simon gordon] 27/8/2009 14:20

JTC,

NEX was covered on Markets Live:



SGC also mentioned.

[jtcod] 27/8/2009 13:07

Has anybody heard/read anything more regarding NEX and the consortium bid recently? The media seems to have gone quiet on the story. I'll be surprised if they are not taken out.

[vkx] 26/8/2009 10:28

Yes, 1.50 does appear to be a resistance line; however, compared to the 2 previous attempts (in early January and early May), this time round there now seems to be an upwards trend line which has been in force since the end of June/beginning of July. Guess we'll find out over the 2-3 weeks...

[armistead34] 26/8/2009 09:18

1.50 also a big technical barrier to the share price Juts look at the chart.

[vkx] 26/8/2009 09:15

Of course, now that I've woken up, you could always just take the 4.2p divi off the previous days closing price to get the opening price!! DOH!! ...I'll get my coat!

[paragon157] 26/8/2009 09:05

Spot on .. Pure Manipulation by the "Spivs" .. Lmao at them

[mazarin] 26/8/2009 09:03

This effectively proves that 'the market' (whoever they are?) can and do manipulate the share price ahead of opening for whatever reason - release news or otherwise..!

[vkx] 26/8/2009 08:53

Yes. A 4.2p divi on a share who's opening share price was approx. 147.5p is about 2.8%. Reduce 147.5p by 2.8% and you get to about 143.5p which is roughly where we are this morning.