Srt Marine Systems Share Discussion Threads

[lavalmy] 03/4/2018 12:31

Countryman

I'm not too sure whether market expectations is with regard to sales or profits or both? Personally, I would find the revenue numbers generally more relevant.

As for CLS, they won the original Philo 1 contract and shortly thereafter the funding for the Philo 2 contract was agreed by the French, using the same amounts as was in the most recent bidding documents. I really don't know how they figure out these things that far ahead without knowing what exactly will be required and when etc. Lots of things have changed at SRT since then as well, all this bluetooth, smartphone stuff was only a twinkle in Peniket's eye. I suppose they just come up with a back of the envelope figure and work with that.

[yumyum] 03/4/2018 11:56

All rather bizarre.

[crystball] 03/4/2018 11:49

That's my understanding too Countryman5.

[countryman5] 03/4/2018 11:45

LAV.
I note your well researched comments, including satellite specialist CLS of France. I am sure that CLS was hoping to receive Philo 2 fishing contract, especially since the French Gov was providing the loan. Clearly SRT must be part , if not all of the contract because the specification requires SRT input. There has been no news of a CLS contract on their website. I am expecting, as usual, a trading update from SRT in the second week of April. It would appear that profits are within the 10% of market expectations because there has not been a RNS to the contrary.

[lavalmy] 03/4/2018 08:46

DJ

SRT have shipped goods previously before contracts have been signed - what I am suggesting is that they will have done something similar. Quite how they arrange the bookkeeping is anyone's guess and they would only (or at least have only until now) do so if the contracts were expected sufficiently soon as to make it plausible.

What Simon has always been clear about is that, if they were to miss their forecasts, they would have to inform the market immediately. They do not have to issue an RNS if they meet those.

EDIT A further point is that any contract with the Philippines will be between CLS and the Philippines and by the look of the terms will be confidential between the two parties. That leaves some wriggle room in the timing of relations between CLS and SRT.

[dj trading] 03/4/2018 08:37

LaValmy - Nobody (in their right mind) does work without a formal contract and that would require an RNS. Especially if that work amounts to a material revenue contribution as you are suggesting. I'll stick with my theory!

[lavalmy] 03/4/2018 08:11

I think that they are that paranoid about missing that they will have done whatever it takes to meet the numbers, even if that eats into future numbers. I can quite see them agreeing with CLS and the Philippines to start the project (based perhaps on the original scope/cost tender) whilst awaiting formal signing of the increased contract. Something similar with Ecuador perhaps?

[crystball] 03/4/2018 07:59

Time to top up?

[dj trading] 03/4/2018 07:57

Perhaps Simon will sign something this week to get 2018/19 off to a flyer rather than worrying about the previous year's numbers as he did last year. Markets look forward so a much better strategy! (and a pw combined with a contract announcement would keep the long termers happy!)

[dj trading] 03/4/2018 07:49

No last minute contract for last year it appears.
Profit warning? (My guess £7m based on core and £1m from ME contract)

Re Gallery pic - I still think the MDM sys was going to ME. Anywhere else would have been RNSd imo

[lavalmy] 29/3/2018 17:43

Well, they a missed a couple of times before and they have just about hit most of the rest by the skin of their teeth, but generally the share price hasn't been much different from where it is currently, both after the misses and before the hits. So I don't really gather how you reckon what the price discounts or not. Maybe you mean that if they miss the price will go down further.

I don't think they will.

As to your second point, the only thing dangled of late has been the four contracts worth c.£60 million. All have been awaited for quite some time. When they come in, I think investors wil be delighted rather than cynical. The Indonesian one that has been delayed is an outlier. All four of the contracts expected are from existing clients, albeit two, the Philippines and Ecuador, were quite small. If by dangling you mean the £200 million VSP and previous incarnations of that, then fine. But I think it is a mistake to assume that when SRT announces a contract for £20 million that it will not happen. I think it is also a mistake to assume that confidence will not return when they announce that these four contracts have been signed. After all, that is what we have been waiting for.

[boadicea] 29/3/2018 16:08

The current share price barely discounts the possibility of a "miss" never mind the probability. It's a modest enough target compared to the prior hype of dangled contracts but still looks improbable imho. Pw next week?
From now on the share price can only be expected to follow crystallized events, not anticipate them (unless they are potentially negative!)
My current holding is a fraction of what it was 2 years ago. If developments from here on are favourable, I would not expect much difficulty in rebuilding it at a reasonable cost - if I choose to.

[lavalmy] 29/3/2018 11:01

Indeed I think that sentiment will turn in a flash once they confirm that they have made their numbers. Firstly, simply the fact that they have done so. Secondly, the contract news associated with having done so. And then there will be the other (?two) contracts.

[lavalmy] 29/3/2018 08:02

CliffPeat

It is hard to tell whether the weakness last week was due to an expectation of a profit warning or maybe even people shorting SRT on those grounds. The absence of one should reverse those losses, but only in theory. In recent days, it seems that someone is happy to accumulate in round number trades.

[cliffpeat] 29/3/2018 07:50

Now after 7:00 and no PW RNS

Is today a buying opportunity?

DYOR - but would like to know current sentiment.

[lavalmy] 29/3/2018 07:33

homeboy

SRT indeed has a history of having to issue profit warnings and they have invariably done so well before the period end.

[lavalmy] 29/3/2018 07:30

No news is presumably good news in the sense that they should have made the forecasts. And it looks like they have shipped a lot of product. I suppose that they could have agreed with their customers to start on the initial phases whilst awaiting formal signing of complete contracts. If the picture does indeed show GeoVS hubs, I understand that they are normally shipped first along with control room stuff. This is supposed to give the customer some encouragement, once they have the big screens etc, to go out and put transponders on boats so that they have something to see.

They are usually fairly prompt with trading statements, so if not next week, the week after things should become clear.

I still lean towards two MDM contracts, Ecuador and the Philippines. Both should be cash generative within a relatively short period after formal signing. We have seen the T&C's of the latter and I understand that a subsidiary of a large Spanish bank had been lined up by the former to provide the financing there.

[lavalmy] 28/3/2018 12:42

I don't really understand Indonesian politics and the relative position of Bakamla compared to the various other agencies that have a role, one way or the other, in the marine environment. A cloud should still be hanging over Arie Soedewo, the head of Bakamla, one would have thought. And yet, as per their website, the President himself was giving them a rousing speech yesterday. Today, Wiranto is shaking their hands - he, you will remember, is the former head of the armed forces who signed Qnective's first Indonesian contract and was appointed to the cabinet in January. It certainly does not suggest to me that Bakamla is in the dog-house. Arie Soedewo is, I assume, the writer of the famous letter confirming that the contract would be going ahead.

[goodapple] 27/3/2018 17:36

New em-trak website: em-trak.com
Direct sales (free shipping worldwide) as well as via local agents. em-trak will be at maximum margins when sold direct to retail customer.
ST said in recent webcast that there would be a selective marketing campaign, so will look out for any promotions in the nautical press. This will shift a few boxes - albeit small ones, but at top margin.
(And it's cash up front.)

[astralvision] 24/3/2018 19:53

Countryman5Very interesting post, you are suggesting, and doubtless have a good reason for suggesting, that the GeoVs stuff is on its way to SEAsia, I think you are also saying this is part of a large contract.Perhaps it's the Philippines one and SRT are delivering in advance of formal contract?I presume a large contract requires a RNS, so perhaps it's reasonable to expect a RNS next week.Hats off to SRT if they pull this off, although the business model is a little too heavy on the will they/won't they side to make for 'comfortable ' investing.I look forwards as to what next week brings.

[countryman5] 24/3/2018 19:41

DJT. I run with your observation of picture content. I suspect that the contents are being delivered to a SE Asia Country not ME Country. V large contract. Nomad still appears happy that end of year forecast (£15 million T/O)has not been breached by 10% or more.
4 more trading days to Y/E. If Indonesia / Qnective postponed contract fires up this year this would be a mega contract spread over a few years. Indonesia new financial year starts April 1st.

[dj trading] 24/3/2018 18:52

"Countryman524 Mar '18 - 08:30 - 6629 of 6633
I suspect the latest picture is to assure nervous souls that sales continue and that the Co. will meet market forecast. Unfortunate for those that have been recent sellers."

Countryman - I think that is the intention, however just take the rose tints off for another look. The two boxes look like GeoVS Hubs (see gallery pic 2/12/15). The only live MDM contract is the Middle East signed 30/3/17 with most of the Revenue and Profit accrued last year (NOT cash though see Receivables)

From the Investor Presentation July 17 page 18 - Middle East "Project underway with expected completion by Feb 2018." So if I am correct the Project is running late with quite a few months? system commissioning in Country to complete, before remaining cash received?

As you are in regular contact with ST you can ask him. (Or wait for annual report in July when you can analyse YE Debtors/Cash)
All imo etc.

[lavalmy] 24/3/2018 18:06

Somewhat amusingly I think that Bakky/hjb has the most accurate historical record.

If the poor chap did actually sell in the 40's, which given his passionate posts bemoaning SRT's performance seems unlikely, let us all hope that he hasn't put all his winnings in his favorite share Premaitha Health which hasn't performed healthily at all. Though, of course, as we all know sentiment can be a fickle driver of share prices, so he could make it all back.