Srt Marine Systems Share Discussion Threads

[astralvision] 16/6/2017 09:25

The debt is actually due from Qnective



Ok, they in turn will be owed by the Asian country.
'In the final stages of sign off' sounds like it is all agreed and just the paperwork to do, i's dotting and t's crossing.

[yumyum] 16/6/2017 09:24

Total projects contracted revenue could shortly be £77m plus £60m. Admittedly this is an SRT projection and needs contracts signed or re-signed, although they seem confident (as ever!).

£137m over 3 years, plus, say £20m for core and em-trak over 3 years equals £157m total revenue, with potentially more contract orders to be won over that 3-year timescale.

In finnCap's very cautious and conservative analysis they project total revenue of only £15m for y/e Mar18, £20.5m for y/e Mar19, and £26.2m for y/e Mar20....that gives total revenue of £61.7m (finnCap assume contracts are performed over a 4-year period, although SRT expect the re-signed Indonesian contract to be completed in 2020).

That leaves a gap of £95.3m in total revenue projections on a 3-year analysis. IF SRT can pull it off (or anywhere remotely close) then there will have to be a massive re-rating.

Let's look forward to post-Eid signings.

[yump] 16/6/2017 09:12

It needs that, plus a 'payment to take place' statement for that receivable. Edited - it is the same contract.

It took a long, long time to get a sizeable contract and certainly don't want the same thing happening with any payments. I would put that as the only major risk now. There is obviously plenty to come with contract news, but I don't think its xenophobic to have worries about payments from countries that shall we say, exhibit a 'different' attitude to being a debtor.

[astralvision] 15/6/2017 14:43

As expected FinnCap are forecasting low ball numbers with a view to upgrading as additional contracts come in.It wouldn't surprise me at all to see FinnCap's 75p target smashed on news of the next deal.We are told the large Asian deal, originally worth $100m , has been 'rescoped' and in final stages of sign off and 'may result in a significant increase in the value of the contract'Wouldn't like to be out when that news hits.

[loobrush] 15/6/2017 14:22

from iii

Well Finncap target is what they think the price will be in time, however looks like in the short term it will fall back until order news arrives. Last fall back it lost about 50% ,lets hope it doesn't drop that far.

[effortless cool] 14/6/2017 18:28

They are the FinnCap numbers.

[pi0110] 14/6/2017 18:18

Stockopedia have just updated their EPS broker forecasts to the following-

2018 - 1p
2019 - 2.1p

Hardly inspiring

[extrader] 14/6/2017 17:45

Hi YumYum and Effortless Cool,

S'pedia has a useful feature, showing changes in consensus broker forecasts, it may be worth looking in there from time to time.

Onwards.....and, we hope, upwards !

ATB

[effortless cool] 14/6/2017 17:01

yumyum,

What you are talking about is a reverse profit warning. Even a corporate broker does not have direct access to a company's projections and MI, so it's not FinnCap that are required to advise the market if actual results will be materially different from market consensus (i.e. FinnCap), but SRT.

There's no hard and fast rule on this but, generally, a 10% variance in pre-tax profit is considered "materially different".

In practice, FinnCap will revise their forecasts over the course of the year as and when contract news emerges, so the consensus will develop (upwards, hopefully) as we progress towards year-end. FinnCap will likely take a steer from the CFO each time they update their forecasts, which reduces the likelihood of a material difference emerging. (In a previous life as a CFO, most of the analysts covering the company actually used to send me their model "for feedback" before releasing their revised forecasts).

[fft] 14/6/2017 15:53

YUMYUM, thanks for the report. One of the most interesting parts is the notes which detail 3 contracts where changes to govt personnel have derailed things for years.

[yumyum] 14/6/2017 15:46

Noted. Thank you astral.

[astralvision] 14/6/2017 15:21

YUMYUM

I think you are suggesting that further contracts where substantial revenues could be gained this f/y should lead to brokers upgrades and this could 'rocket' the share price.
I think it is probably incumbent on SRT, in the case of such a contract, to inform the market that it expects to 'materially exceed forecasts', at which point Finncap will upgrade the forecasts.
That sounds reasonable to me.

[countryman5] 14/6/2017 15:05

Website called phys.org, put in AIS search and there is an article dated June 7. Indonesia makes its fishing fleet visible to the world through'Global Fishing Watch'

[yumyum] 14/6/2017 13:26

...EXISTING share price target is a measly 75p !

[yumyum] 14/6/2017 13:22

There are wiser heads out there. Please advise:

I am thinking that because finnCap are the corporate broker (anyway probably the only one properly covering SRT) then if they have cause to increase their profit forecast then they (and SRT) are obliged to do so?

In other words if their forecasts have a big variance (more than 10%?) from the latest projected turnover figures of for FY ending March 31st 2018 of £15m, ...2019...£20.5m ....2020...£26.2m...

...then they will be obliged to inform the 'market' accordingly ?

i.e. some contract orders for SRT could put a rocket under the share price?

If FY ending Mar18 was £18m turnover then would finnCap be OBLIGED to say something?

Wiser comments most welcome.

[countryman5] 14/6/2017 08:38

Ifc4. It will only be taken out when the Directors decide to sell. You rightly observe that this will be after news of some major contracts. When these occur SRT will be clearly a major player on the world stage. There will be more than one interested party. All that is needed is a little patience, the ducks are coming into line.

[pandeck] 14/6/2017 08:29

YumYum,

Many thanks from me too, very good of you.

[billbyrne] 14/6/2017 08:23

YumYum,

Thanks, much appreciated.

[lfc4ever] 13/6/2017 21:03

it's an interesting note, but ultimately, really, just guess work as it all depends in your faith in the projects coming through.

interesting to note that Raytheon has annual sales of circa US$24billion and Lockheed Martin over US$40billion. A takeover of SRT would barely register in their accounts. Bag a few more contracts and that really does start to look like a probable "out".

[pandeck] 13/6/2017 15:06

Yumyum I would be most grateful for a copy please:.....................

[mikeod] 13/6/2017 14:40

Thanks yumyum.

[effortless cool] 13/6/2017 14:06

yumyum - I would be grateful if you could send it to the revised email address that I just sent you through a private message.

[fft] 13/6/2017 14:01

Ok. Need to log in via PC as phone app isn't always good.

[yumyum] 13/6/2017 13:59

fft...if you message me your email then I will send.