Srt Marine Systems Share Discussion Threads

[the prophet] 19/10/2016 09:28

thanks for your views re t/o C5, 2vdm and LaV.

Guess what would be ideal is for the results to start to reflect the order book resulting in a substantial re-rating, followed by a t/out at a very healthy premium. I think that would keep most folk happy.

[sspurt] 19/10/2016 08:22

Any comments on the presentation yesterday afternoon?

[lavalmy] 18/10/2016 15:11

I remember this conversation at 20p, when they were going to be bought at 40p, by, at one point, some canny Canadian VC outfit that got wise via eE.

AIS is currently a tiny market. It may become bigger if the various governments that SRT is talking to decide to go ahead with AIS based monitoring of their fishing fleets and/or other boats. In other words, the larger AIS market will only exist when SRT have been awarded the contracts. By then, the value of the market will become visible and the value of SRT will already have risen accordingly.

The more valuable income streams from recurring revenues are even further out and less visible. Nobody knows what prices governments will pay for AIS satellite coverage. There will be more and more capacity in the satellite market.

Where SRT are potentially vulnerable now is that they are pitching themselves as an MDM system provider. Other companies might like the offering and see a brighter future for it than the SRT directors do. I seriously doubt that. And SRT currently has only one, rather small, MDM system in place.

[2vdm] 18/10/2016 14:54

I certainly wouldn't want this subject to a T/O at this price. Let's hope we hear more about where we are with Indonesia and other projects. Maybe ST will have an opportunity to update us soon. Countryman, not a ramp, but for once I've added to DOTD, rather than SRT. I'm sure SRT will get there eventually, but lets hope it's before that jam passes its sell by date.

[countryman5] 18/10/2016 14:34

TP. I think that an offer is inevitable and as soon as one is received others will probably appear. The BOD are major shareholders and I guess that small shareholders will be guided by BOD. I would prefer the company to stay independent because I do not know of an AIM company with better prospects and tax on gains reduces investment capital.

[philburt] 18/10/2016 11:44

Goodapple - yuk yuk

[goodapple] 18/10/2016 11:10

I wonder how big Austria's delegation was, and how soon we can hope for an order for an MDM system for their extensive coastline?

[yumyum] 18/10/2016 10:20

TEMPO.CO, Yogyakarta - President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo dubbed illegal fishing as the biggest crime at sea.

“Illegal fishing is an organized international crime,” Jokowi said at The 2nd International Symposium on Fisheries Crime in Yogyakarta on Monday, October 10, 2016.
According to President Jokowi, Indonesia’s commitment to fighting illegal fishing is reflected in being the host of the international symposium.

“More countries are aware that illegal fishing is a major crime at sea that must be addressed,” President Jokowi added.

“About 2.6 billion people are dependent on the sea,” he said.

Jokowi revealed that Indonesia would continue to wage a war against illegal fishing since the crime caused US$20 billion in state losses and damages to 65 percent of the coral reef. Data from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations (UN) revealed that Indonesia is one of the largest fish producers supplying six million tons or 68 percent of the world’s demands on sea products per year.

“Eradicating illegal fishing would result in an increase in sea production capacity,” he said.

President Jokowi expressed his appreciation to ministries, institutions, and law enforcers for eradicating illegal fishing activities. As a result, the country’s sea product capacity increased from 7.3 million tons in 2013 to 9.9 million tons in 2015.

The 2nd International Symposium on Fisheries Crime has been scheduled to take place on October 10 and 11, 2016 in Yogyakarta. Also attending the event are Maritime and Fisheries Minister Susi Pudjiastuti, National Police chief Gen. Tito Karnavian, Yogyakarta governor Sri Sultan Hamengkubuwono X. Among countries sending their delegations to participate in the event are Australia, Austria, China, India, Ghana, Nigeria, South Africa, and Vietnam.

ODELIA SINAGA

Source:

[the prophet] 18/10/2016 09:09

What do you reckon re £1 t/o, C5?
As far as I am concerned, it wouldn't be the end of the world although if the business momentum continues to build and the revs are delivered, then £1 coud look modest.
The 2nd and 3rd tranches of the directors options kick in at 75p and 125p, so perhaps that gives some indication of their thoughts?
I assume the options have provisions in the case of a t/o

[countryman5] 18/10/2016 06:22

Weak pound makes UK companies vulnerable to T O. Would BOD, who know the pipeline, recommend £1? Weak pound enhances foreign earnings. Indonesia, Bahrain and others growing contract size? All will eventually become clearer. If you are a seller of these you don't believe that a T O is on the horizon.

[kalkanite] 17/10/2016 23:22

Yump

Banged to rights:-)

Charting is good when it plays out, but I prefer fundamentals when making investment decisions. However, it's always good to keep an open mind as long as you don't get drawn in by it.

EDIT: I find charting to have like a placebo effect. If a doctor subscribes a placebo to a patient saying take this tonight and you will wake up fine in the morning, if the patient believes this he/she may well wake up feeling fine, but it doesn't mean that he can prescribe the same thing to the next patient and it will work.

The chart for SRT has now formed a triangle. It will break out very soon because the triangle is close to its tip. But, it may or may not break out in a substantial way (i.e. play out), however as investors, the chart has just prescribed us with a placebo and if it does play out it does not mean that the next time it forms a triangle that it will "play out" again.

Theoretically the chartist will tell you that the chart is a reflection of human emotions and as such bears and bulls are fighting each other with the bears selling off and the bulls buying. At some point either the bears completely sell out and leaves just bulls left at the party in which case the chart will accelerate up or vice versa. The tip of the triangle is merely suggesting that we are close to the situation whereby we have just the bears or the bulls left.

That's just the theory, we shall see whether the placebo works on this occasion.

K

[yump] 17/10/2016 22:50

Not a chartist
About to break

Surely mutually exclusive comments ?

[kalkanite] 17/10/2016 20:35

Not a chartist but there is an interesting triangle formed that started early August that is about to break. Can only hope that it is to the upside if it does play out.

[yump] 17/10/2016 16:30

Great minds etc...
;-)

[kinbasket] 17/10/2016 16:27

FFT

It's not a mandate type affair. A mandate is the relevant authority mandating boat owners to use AIS. i.e. Authority says, boat owner buys. As we know, compliance and timing become issues.

AIUI, this a national project. i.e. the National authority is buying and providing the transceivers. It's a very different thing IMHO.

[yump] 17/10/2016 16:27

On the face of it there appear to be differences between these mandates. Sometimes there is legislation which the boat owners are supposed to take notice of (with the issue of whether they do or not and what consequence (if any) there is of them ignoring it), sometimes they appear to be the result of a desire to monitor the boats actively on the part of the authorities.

It may be reading too much into the Saudi order, but it sounds more like the latter to me.

Would have thought also that the 'we will monitor you' approach is going to increase, as I can't see world security in general getting better ;-)

[fft] 17/10/2016 15:55

Lavalmy,

I understand where you are coming from in your response.

However, over the years there have been many mandates that were supposed to deliver the goodies (USA, Russia, EU inland waterways etc). But... Either no one was buying what they were supposed to , or SRT were not (despite ST saying they had 80% of the market) delivering the goods. The last 6 years accts show that purely looking at revenue.

Projects seem to be different. With GeoVS they do have a good contract value.

The Saudi contract does not seem to have any additional service (i.e. GeoVS) tied in. It appears to be more a mandate type affair where (according to the RNS) upto 70,000 boats may be affected. But we heard all about 70,000 or 100,000 boats on mandates before. It, based on history, means sod all. If SRT were installing an MDM system that talked to other SRT bits then SRT would be in a strong position. They don't seem to be. They are just hoping that the Saudis buy AIS kit with SRT bits inside.


The market, after a very small initial rise, also seems to be not so sure about this one. Would love to be proved wrong but after 4 years of waiting for the Saudi contract to finally be announced, it seems a very damp squib.

[sharesoc] 17/10/2016 15:06

SRT Marine Systems present at our London seminar tomorrow, places still available:

[lavalmy] 14/10/2016 15:22

I really struggle to see that the start of a national roll-out covering 70,000 vessels is somehow disappointing.

The Saudis infrastructure was most likely installed many years ago when the SOLAS mandate was introduced, what with oil tankers, the Gulf, the Suez canal et al. Most probably it was SRT's old mates SAAB who supplied the kit, as they were pretty much top dog in the AIS world as it was then.

SRT's partners in the region are Elcome, with whom they worked in Oman. This was not a low margin contract. Qnective was the lead contractor on that deal, who have the same role in Indonesia. The missing firm in Indonesia is Frequentis who were brought in by Qnective to handle the actual boots on ground stuff in Oman. Neil Peniket mentioned them as their main competition in the MDM market and it is good to see that they have been found unnecessary for Indonesia. SRT's share of that deal is double what their initial estimates were.

For Saudi, the AGM presentation said this:

'Following successful Bahrain reference – project being considered as a single, unphased national program. In direct discussions with relevant ministry'

which does not mean that they are not working with partners. It does mean that they have a seat at the top table. The Saudi prince who has taken charge of the project is best mates with his opposite number in Bahrain. Note the Saudi deal was never expected to be an MDM system, unlike two of the other three Middle Eastern pipeline projects. That, of course, doesn't mean that they will not look to upgrade in the future.

[fft] 14/10/2016 13:32

According to the previous mentioned presentation the Saudi order is due to be worth $30m. It is obvious that todays RNS is not the whole amount as delivery and revenue is due to be received in this FY.

It could be an Indian type situation where 100 (500 ?) units were shipped and never heard of again....

The company who installed the MDM system (Lavalmy mentioned this), must be in prime position to make the money and prescribe who gets the orders. SRT don't seem to be much more than a box shifter on this project which must lessen margins and ongoing maintenance revenue. It isn't as good as hoped given that Saudi has been on the list for being 'closed' for 3-4 years.

With Indonesia there was a multi phase project. With this, nothing concrete about plans. Disappointing.

[the prophet] 14/10/2016 13:18

sounds right to me, owenski.
if SRT can build sustainable and repeatable revenues, then the current share price will look dirt cheap. It doesn't look cheap at all looking at the recent interims, but a rear view mirror is probably not the best way to gauge or measure SRT.
We look like we are entering a very interesting and , hopefully, exciting time. As you say, it's been a bit of a wait along the way.

[owenski] 14/10/2016 13:14

Dont want to get into the speculative game, but after having a few conversations with SRT from time to time, the waiting has always tested investors patience and while we want a figure put on everything they do, the bigger picture is for big bucks, SRT are in this for the 30m a year type of revenues and the model they're building is to achieve that.

The waiting is always a pain but they are getting there.

Indonesia is still working away in the background. That's just the forward order book, not the VoP, which is on top of that.

[owenski] 14/10/2016 13:07

Worth bearing in mind the wording even though no money is mentioned -

"The order is part of a national initiative which IS EXPECTED TO SEE UP TO 70,000 locally registered boats continuously monitored to enhance maritime security, safety and management.......................................

MARKS THE START of the rollout. We look forward to working with our partners in the future on this national initiative."

Saudi contract has ebbed back and forth for some time, and now it's started.

I would imagine we'll be seeing more contract announcement start ups in this FY, the wording of the recent TU suggested as much.

[2vdm] 14/10/2016 12:06

Yes, more good news and another toe through the door.Well done SRT. I'm not sure where this year will end up, but now really looking fwd to 2017-8