Srt Marine Systems Share Discussion Threads

[sailing john] 09/11/2016 13:23

Dolores I had the same problem until I installed ad blocker
Solved the problem immediately - I don't mind a few ads to help to pay for the site especially as I use it for free but as you say there are so many it is unusable without an ad blocker.
Helps elsewhere also

[dolores123] 09/11/2016 13:15

I am shortly leaving ADVFN as I am fed up with their adverts slowing the system down but remain a holder of SRT shares and look forward to a share price recovery in the not too distant future as more contracts etc are obtained and announced.

Best Wishes to all on here.

Dolores.

[2vdm] 09/11/2016 08:06

Presumably a reaction due to Trumps victory with markets down and SRT's contracts setled in $US. Buying opportunity yet? Thoughts TP/LeVal welcomed

[hjb1] 08/11/2016 14:44

more news imminent imo!

[2vdm] 08/11/2016 14:36

Able to buy these at close to 39p now. I think that this is going to drift until we get more news.

[hjb1] 08/11/2016 13:59

who cares!!??

[dj trading] 08/11/2016 13:10

Patent update - appeal now filed

Round 1 - Sept 2015 all claims rejected

Round 2 - May 2016 all revised claims rejected or canceled

Round 3 - Nov 2016 appeal filed

[countryman5] 06/11/2016 15:51

Interesting article on fishing dispute between India and Sri Lanka
hxxp://carnegieindia.org/2016/09/09/india-sri-lanka-fisheries-dispute-creating-win-win-in-palk-bay-pub-64538.

[countryman5] 06/11/2016 15:38

Article in FT.
'South Korea's coastguard has for the first time opened fire on Chinese fishing trawlers, which are increasingly straying into Seoul's territorial waters amid growing Chinese demand for fresh seafood'.
'The clash with the South Korean coastguard is at least the third time this year Chinese fishermen have been attacked by foreign law enforcement vessels. in March, Argentina sank a Chinese fishing boat it alleged was fishing illegally in its waters, while in June Indonesia injured one sailor after opening fire in a similar incident'

[countryman5] 05/11/2016 19:30

I believe that at some stage we shall see a new serious buyer of stock and buying will be because of the potential of the company and not because of any specific RNS. Now that Blackrock has walked, do we have much in the way of institutions? It would take patience to acquire 5% or LAV to say farewell.

[lavalmy] 05/11/2016 15:09

TP

Come to think of it, I remember Simon talking about culling the number of OEM customers rather than dealers of EmTrak, the effort involved in the customisation not being worth the lack thereof by the OEM customer in selling the product. I also remember that they were going for a marketing push on EmTrak with POS kit etc, so the two are not contradictory.

They were also hoping to persuade Furuno to become a new OEM customer for the new Class A. They must shift some volume, then. Neil mentioned that Japanese engineering pride might be an obstacle to that idea.

[lavalmy] 05/11/2016 12:03

TP

I think you are right about the forecasts, they will have a slightly backward-looking feel to them. The problem would come say if they do 10p next year but the following year's forecast would be the minimum, subject to upgrades, i.e. a complete profits collapse. Cross that bridge when it happens, but they may be less nervous once things are on a roll. It was the high forecasts and then sod all showing up that caused the issues. Once stuff actually does show up...?

[the prophet] 05/11/2016 11:52

Thanks for the replies AE and LaV.When I spoke to ST recently he did say they are having a big push on dealerships , which a lot of that is the leisure market. He was talking about expanding the number of dealerships, but then again it don't seem too long ago when SRT were culling the numbers to get rid of the lower sales ones. Perhaps it's getting the right ones, i didn't really talk about it in any detail but ST did say they are doing things like POS stands and promotions and trying to get the devices out of locked cupboards and the back of the shop and to the fore.Interesting points re forecasts. I tend to think the forecasts may be more of the same, i.e. Bung in what they think is the minimum and only upgrade when 'deliverables' have been, well, delivered! If that is the case I don't expect to see any eye watering forecasts for 17/18 or 18/19.Like to be proved wrong on that one, the above is just my view btw.

[lavalmy] 05/11/2016 11:50

On a completely different topic, it struck me, but I keep forgetting to mention it, that all these new wattages (the 2w/12w Class B, the 5w Sodma) have mainly been SRT tinkering with the signal strengths for better satellite detection. If you remember, Simon told me at the AGM about the Indians wanting 12w devices. At the time, I assumed it was a specific Indian thing. But if we look what Simon said at the time of the divorce from eE, dynamically changing slots and signal strength is an integral part of getting the higher detection levels. And that customers could work back from a required service level to what it would cost them (as well as forwards from a budget and what that could get them). I am not going to try to understand it much more than that because it sounds as if it could get way over my head quite quickly.

[lavalmy] 05/11/2016 11:39

Hi TP

If you google around for yachting type sites, as well as Panbo, you see Vesper mentioned a lot and that a lot of people have chosen them over rival offerings. Often, mention is also made of wifi and compatability with other bits of kit. It seems that they are focussed primarily on the leisure boater, which SRT are not, and get involved sorting out end-user issues, which I don't think SRT do much of either. Neil said they had a good product as well. SRT's new stuff is wifi ready, if that's the expression.

Fair points about upgrades. I think that also there is a good possibility of enhanced functionality providing new streams as well, which might involve upgrades of the transceivers with software rather than new hardware. I have a vague memory of them being able to do things like that. Though, of course, what new functionality could be useful will probably only strike people when they have a system up and running and say 'wouldn't it be great if...' A bit like the expected filling in the gaps with satellite.

[alter ego] 05/11/2016 11:35

TP, I seem to recall that Ben Ellison, the guy who publishes Panbo is a fan of Vesper. Haven't trawled the site but memory says he uses one of their products on his own boat. Doesn't mean much of course but might indicate they have good products in some segments, but from ST's pov, they don't have the broad range to worry SRT.

Have been out of the country recently and catching up on discussions. Some good points made about future revenues v what the market forecasts currently say. Agree that once Indonesia is in the published numbers (and hopefully some others too), SRT will no longer look overpriced to the casual observer.

[the prophet] 05/11/2016 10:48

Hi LaV

Another interesting point could be how many of these projects get upgraded/receive follow on work

eg, Indonesian contract was a magnitude higher than was flagged up in the pipeline potentials.
Bahrain, sounds like that one has the capacity for upgrades once the current MDM project is assimilated.

Re Vesper, any basis for your 'strong competitor' view? I find it difficult to judge. ST has been dismissive of them in the recent past, you could say he would say that, but he has pointed to SRT's technical superioty of prodcts and SRT's comprehensivce world-wide dealer network to support his claims that Vesper are not really anywhere.
You look up Vesper in the UK and their web-site lists three places where you can buy their kit



I've not done the same exercise for SRT, but I should think you are talking about hundreds. OK, that's just the UK, but perhaps provides some evidence to support ST's view that Vesper are not serious competition?

edit, just checked out one of Vesper's dealerships, OmniMarine, on the AIS page they feature EmTrak as well as Vesper Marine!

In USA Vesper have over 50 dealerships listed, so who knows?......

[lavalmy] 05/11/2016 10:24

kalkanite

Sorry, yes I meant averaged for each year over the three. It is extremely unlikely that it will be smooth, but certainly should underpin the share price. If you take the harsh view that a p/e is not appropriate to value these sorts of one-off projects, it still totals almost half the current share price. The big unknown, though I am confident there will be some significant earnings, is the recurring stuff which will not really be visible until some of these are fully up and running. I could certainly see Indonesia netting $4-5 million for SRT annually. Somewhere around $25 per boat, though it would probably be couched differently.

Otherwise, the forecasts are stale as we know and SRT seem very wary of putting out meaningful ones. This is understandable given previous history as well as the relative size of the potential numbers and vagaries as to timing. And unfortunately many do not bother to do much in depth research, or if they do, only when some screen has flagged up something of interest. I can't see that happening currently for SRT.

Having said all that, I am reasonably sanguine about my double digit EPS forecast for next year and the years beyond. Sure, as you say, some years may be bumper ones and if the market gets carried away as a result I would probably sell some of my holding. I would rather hold to see the recurring revenues build. I have no qualms about seeing those turn into double digit EPS as well and of much higher quality. I am yet to be convinced that the leisure market will take off and Vesper seem to be a strong competitor there, so I see the recurring revenues as replacing the project revenues over time.

[the prophet] 05/11/2016 10:01

look forwards to the updates with the interim results, interims are out, as a reminder, tuesday, 15th November.

My understanding is Indonesia is going just fine, I also look forward to the 'deliverables' this half. We've had the Saudi order, great to kick off another substantive MDM project. Note the TU said 'several projects' , so more to come.

Another reminder, ST confirmed to me at the time of the TU that 'project deliverables' =invoice which = revenues.
Each project has multiple phases, and within those phases are multiple components. Each component is a 'deliverable'. It seems reasonable to suggest that we may see component(s) completed this half on the Indonesian project and thus revenues.

from the TU dated 6th October:
' During the period there was material progress with several projects which will result in the completion of significant project deliverables in the second half. Upon completion the Company will make further announcements and provide market guidance accordingly'

[yumyum] 05/11/2016 09:21

...assuming Indonesia is really happening.

[kalkanite] 05/11/2016 09:02

LaValmy

For the sake of clarity I take it your 6.4p calculation is for "each" year of the 3 years period? Slightly ahead of my calculation of circa 5.5p (16.5p for the 3 years) per year when averaged.

This is an invisible share in that doing a search relying on fundamentals will not be recognised, until that is, SRT start to recognise the Indonesian project in their forecasts. Once March 2017 result is out of the way forecasts for 2019 will appear which should recognise the huge chunk expected for that year for the Indonesian project alone. SRT then becomes very visible within the PI community and the share price should then reflect true value. Assuming that is that the project is delivered according to expectations.

Given that nothing like 6.4p has been forecast for 2017 and 2018, there is a "potential" of circa 15p EPS for 2019. If SRT win any further projects of which the recent Saudi RNS alludes to then the potential is even greater.

The drawback to all this is STs willingness to put these figures into the forecast as he has been accused in the past of being too optimistic and has hence since taken a more conservative view when making forecasts.

[lavalmy] 04/11/2016 16:35

The timing of my sofa money seems to be correlated with SRT's views of imminence, and long may that continue, until the sofa money is safely invested in SRT shares.

I think perhaps investors are losing sight of what has already been agreed. Just the Indonesian deal. Assume £5 million of other business in a year and nothing else. Assume also that the US$96.5 odd is delivered over three years, starting 1/10/2016 or 1/4/2017, take your pick. The EPS over that three year period is 6.4p.

We know that the Saudis have started. We should also be much more confident that most of the rest of the pipeline will come to fruition. Maybe some of it is slightly in doubt. The Philippines. Malaysia also did a sweet-heart deal with China. OTOH, Indonesia and Australia have agreed to do joint patrols in the South China sea. China really doesn't want to see a Clinton victory and the polls seem to have stopped sliding against her. I can't see Duterte carrying on like he has if she is in charge.

And then there is Brexit. I have no doubts that the combination of higher inflation, low wage growth and business uncertainty will lead to stagnation in the UK economy. Many small caps do not have the international exposure to avoid the hit to profits that implies. There are and always will be funds dedicated to UK small cap investments and they will, if they are not already, look favorably at export led companies in growth markets. SRT is going to fit that bill, and in spades.

[goodapple] 04/11/2016 15:40

My jam's getting dusty.

[yumyum] 04/11/2016 14:51

My champagne money is at the beer money.

[lavalmy] 04/11/2016 05:21

In a slow news period



Cost-cutting etc, but also

'Within its sales organization, exactEarth has now added more customer-facing product sales specialists and has appointed senior-team leads for various verticals, such as small-vessel tracking and surveillance.'

which, given their slightly strained resources, they wouldn't be doing unless they saw, reasonably clearly, part of their future. Though, having said that, I am not at all sure that a senior-team lead will be able to gee things up in any meaningful way. As for verticals, well ...

The share price jumped, despite my cynicism, so the beer money is just at the money.