Springfield Properties Share Discussion Threads

[swiss paul] 15/1/2025 17:24

something leaking?

[jimarilo101] 13/1/2025 08:51

Thanks to the springfield most recent trading update I learnt of this scam

Anyone seen or heard of freeports ??? "A state within a state" and not just in the UK

This is like an offshore tax avoidance scheme, accept it is onshore for corporates. sunak brought this in and could be as many as ten in the uk, which are far reaching covering massive area's

The police, taxman nor council have any jurisdiction within the area. Which makes the ports open to human trafficking, storing assets normally subject to tax. They are not bound by local planning consents and have the "right" compulsory purchase any property they want

FREEPORTS - SELLING OFF SCOTLAND

[sphere25] 08/1/2025 11:46

lol I will take it.

I have to keep hitting the trades to keep up with good long term performers and it certainly isn't easy, especially not in this market. This market is giving very little. Just a few monster movers about.

I have come out of this today

That 10 year yield just doesn't want to come down....just keeps going higher and higher...and its spiking now so I have come out of alot of trading positions.

It has spiked to 4.8%. These yields have continually been creeping higher on both sides of the Atlantic.

But that spike and any moves higher now...this is a problem.

So airing on the side of caution.

I hope this goes well for you CJohn once we get out of this gloomy patch. No idea when it passes.

All imo
DYOR

[cjohn] 03/1/2025 12:49

I'm a value investor and rarely bother with short-term price movements; bar fresh news they are well-nigh random anyway.

For that reason, I think it's difficult to put percentages on probabilities; I still believe I can translate what you are currently saying into: "There's a significantly better than even's chance that the share price will move higher than current price in the next month." Would that be a fair summary of what you're saying?

Given the fundamentals, there's a much better than even's chance that this share will trade significantly higher in a year's time. That is why I'm still running my long-term position and haven't taken profits.

Have another hug.

[cjohn] 03/1/2025 12:42

Hi, sphere25, just one issue with the Victor Meldrew comparison: Vic's much better looking than me.

[sphere25] 02/1/2025 13:54

Abitta love on the boards...makes for a change.

I hope you have a good year too CJohn.

You sounded abit like Victor Meldrew earlier.....

"I dooo nottt believeeeeee it!......someone on the boards without posting percentage probabilities!"

"I dooooo notttt believe ittt.......a short term trader in SPR with no mention of value!".

Traders are all different. It is hard to assign probabilities. This sort of chart is difficult to call right too. These can easily make another leg lower and SPR is illiquid so the book can change quite rapidly on low volume.

I think anyone would just wind people up if they sat there picking numbers and percentages. Prices are difficult to predict and this market is tough. Almost only playing for these sorts of bounces, because the confidence and participation just isn't there. It is also very easy to look very stupid on the boards, especially if being more specific with numbers.

In a tough market like this, it is hard to find the trades. When the market gets easier....three years of bad flows...when does it change? But when it changes...hope? And things just go up and up and it is one way, then you'll have the participation and everyone will be bouncing and posting.

Furthermore, I don't know enough about companies to be more specific, because I trade almost any company. I know bits about alot, but there are too many companies and me little head will roll off trying to absorb more information. I'm more about order book movements really.

Alot of trading is on instinct too. Stick a stop loss and exit for a small loss if it doesn't work or exit if it goes stale. Love those small losses and let the winners run. That is how I trade, but each to their own.

But I had stuck this on the watchlist because I thought that plunge was overdone to the downside. Sometimes the price move down can be pricing in a bad trading update. The update was in line so it looked like it could bounce over £1 and sit back in that range between £1 and £1.10.

The market did come in and gobble up the shares from sellers in size at mainly around 89p-90p. Since then it has been nigh on impossible to buy in any size at all price points from 91p (in penny increments) to the current 96p (the price has moved as I have been typing) on the offer. I'm trading a crazy loopy share like VCP and watching others so this is abit slow - have to watch them close. They can gap 5-10% in no time.

Small buys have moved the price here and alot have been negotiated because the online quotes have been closed so trades like Tuesday with the 5k trade at 95p and then someone paid through the offer of 95p to buy at 95.9p - okay that would have been online. Sometimes that is accepted with paying through the offer.

Overall though, identified it, noted the mopping up in the market and then bought (in at just over 91p) with the post here.

Could I sit here and say it was a 75% chance of a bounce over £1?

No. There are too many factors in play.

Did I think there was a reasonable possibility that it could bounce to allow a profitable trade?

Yes

But if it didn't work, I just exit and move on.

But this is just a short term insight. You seemed quite particular on having more detail so here is some detail.

I'm distracted with other things, so this might not be entirely coherent, but an order book update right now:

Price is 93p-97p and it looks like it will go to at least 94p-97. The offer at 97p is once more (as per previous price moves) closed off to buying in size. Cannot even get a quote for market size of just 3k.

So this suggests a strong possibility that the price will continue higher and could trend over £1. Now I don't know the exact price movements. Everything is fluid, shares move differently, but this looks like it could eventually sit over £1.

But this is just one share and abit of the thought process. I just want to trade really. I don't want to sit here and hammer out whopping big posts on every trade.

I bought here, I sold here...I bought here...this percentage...that percentage...50000 posts a year...put you off being an advfn member ha

But there we go, I only post now and again.

And they won't be complete.

Hope this helps

Let's see if it can keep moving higher.

All imo
DYOR

[cjohn] 02/1/2025 12:11

Hello, sphere 25, first time in my life, I've been called "sir". Probably the last too. Thank you.

Have a great year and a hug from sir.

[c3479z1] 31/12/2024 22:02

see one of the Directors was honoured in the NY list.

[sphere25] 31/12/2024 13:07

Sorry Sir, I must do better next time

[cjohn] 31/12/2024 09:17

You need to put a probability on any claim such as, the share price "could break higher". Do you mean a 2% probability? A 20% probability? Or a 75% probability? Otherwise the claim is vacuous.

And in what time frame do you think this will happen. Do you mean today, in the next week, the next three months?

Then you are actually saying something concrete.

On the other hand, well done on spotting the share price is going up.

[sphere25] 30/12/2024 14:26

Maybe you know exactly how prices are going to move.

I certainly don't.

But it is breaking higher.

All imo
DYOR

[cjohn] 24/12/2024 08:46

"It could break higher."

It could stay the same. It could break lower.

[sphere25] 23/12/2024 20:56

I'm wandering around the whole market so there might be some typos. Been trying to buy in here, as well as trading other shares.

It depends on your time horizons as to whether you care about the plunge.

I'm very interested in that plunge and can now see why it has moved from flatline when I posted to starting to break higher with the shares on offer at prices of 91p, 92p and finally 93p closed off through the afternoon.

At least one big buyer in the market explains that - didn't tally initially. Small prints can cause misleading price moves. But there are delayed trades that have hit the book with volume going from practically nothing to just over half a million exchanged:

-Blocks of 182k and 157k picked up at 90p
-Smaller trades of 50k and 68k at 90.2p have then appeared to clear out the sellers at these price points

The bid has then been pushed higher to 89p but there is a buyer in size at 90p now so this could break higher.

All imo
DYOR

[sphere25] 23/12/2024 13:32

The VCP book has just suddenly built well on the demand side with stacks of orders from 59.7p-60.4p on the bid.

Looks worth a short term viewing too.

I'm just going to post on random boards.

All imo
DYOR

[cjohn] 10/12/2024 08:55

Solid update.

Operational improvements in both private and affordable housing.


PTBV of 0.7 makes it cheapest of UK housebuilders bar the troubled CRST.

[alan@bj] 10/12/2024 08:34

Good update. The share price should be over £1.

[edmonda] 10/12/2024 07:22

"Confident H1 update, positive market developments"

Springfield’s H1 update reiterates current year expectations and reinforces our confidence in the medium-term outlook for the Group.

Momentum in private housing reservations was sustained through the first half, whilst the affordable housing business achieved a significant increase in gross margin driven by contracts won in the prior year.

Affordable housing providers have been more hesitant in awarding contracts in recent months but last week’s Scottish budget confirmed a material increase in funding for affordable homes delivery in FY25/26, which should stimulate activity into FY26. Springfield continues to engage with stakeholders in the major infrastructure projects planned for the North of Scotland, where it has a significant landholding.

Springfield continues to trade at a c.30% discount to peers, which in our view overlooks the Group’s unique positioning, the likely tailwind from the increased affordable housing budget and clear potential for major investment in housing delivery in Springfield’s stronghold in the North of Scotland.

We remain confident in the Group’s growth outlook and reiterate our 140p Fair Value estimate.

Link to latest research report (freely accessible):

[alan@bj] 05/12/2024 14:05

Hopes of a rate cut?

[spob] 05/12/2024 12:59

tipped somewhere ?

[swiss paul] 15/10/2024 18:40

and there was me thinking - aye aye - someone has finally put therio hand in their pocket:
Springfield Properties plc (AIM: SPR), a leading housebuilder in Scotland focused on delivering private and affordable housing, announces that Iain Logan, Chief Financial Officer, has sold and repurchased into his self-invested personal pension ("SIPP") ordinary shares of 0.125 pence each in the Company ("Ordinary Shares").

Following these transactions, Iain Logan continues to have an interest in 30,000 Ordinary Shares, representing 0.03% of the Company's issued share capital.

But I suppose when you sitting on a shiot load of options at a low price - well why would you?

[alan@bj] 18/9/2024 09:09

BUY recommendation from Simon Thompson in the Investors' Chronicle today.

[edmonda] 17/9/2024 06:31

"Attractive growth outlook and 30% discount to peers" - new research report

Springfield is emerging strongly from a challenging year for the housebuilding sector, with debt substantially reduced, private reservations and affordable order book improving and an increasingly confident medium-term outlook.

FY24 results are in line with expectations and ahead of the original targets for the year. The dividend has been reinstated (1.0p final) earlier than forecast, in a sign of confidence. Management’s principal objective at the beginning of the year was to reduce bank debt to <£60m and this was comfortably achieved (£39.9m reported).

The partnership with Barratt at Durieshill is a reminder of the long-term value in the landbank, which also underpins genuine excitement in the prospects for the North of Scotland, a region that will benefit from a sustained and significant increase in investment over the coming years.

Whilst the shares have performed well over the past year, given the confident tone of today’s outlook statement, the Group’s low valuation relative to peers and the exciting opportunity emerging in North Scotland (not yet reflected in forecasts), we reiterate our Fair Value / share estimate of 140p.

Link to report: