Spectra Systems Share Discussion Threads

[sonofbanjosinger] 16/1/2018 14:57

Its very unusually to find such a high growth share paying out such a large dividend.

[tilly99] 16/1/2018 14:56

MicroThe problem with wait for the overhang to clear is that you may miss a rise(like yday)on a decent RNSI think it's best to pick a level and drip feed into it on falls thereby not missing out on a rise like ydayFor me that would be 85p(was 80p and I topped up aggressively there) as that's where both the yield and valuation is compelling Everyone has their own investment styles but waiting for a seller to clear up to me means potentially missing out on what I believe will be seen as a hugely undervalued situation

[fft] 16/1/2018 14:38

microscope, are you saying that you are holding off because of the overhang ?

I would look at the yield as something that helps underpin the share price. With the increase in various activities it is surely a growth stock - but unlike most growth stocks that have high p/e's, no dividend and a useless balance sheet, this one has a rock solid balance sheet and a yield that beats leaving the money in the bank.

In my mind, that makes this an ideal time to buy as when the overhang is cleared the share price should rise a few pennies.

Unless I am missing something which I should know. It is very easy to get blinkered and only look for confirmation bias which is why counter arguments are always good to read.

[microscope] 16/1/2018 14:25

Cracking RNS underpinning the business for the long term. Still lurking, and the problem it seems to me is as much that they don't seem to be able to find a new institution to take the seller away, as it is the seller themselves. WH Ireland might be more proactive in that regard, instead of just marking the price down all the time and 'hoping', which is how it looks from where I am.

Maybe the management should, imho only of course, look for a more 'dynamic' house broker. With all that cash I'm sure they could easily switch camps.

Appreciate the yield looks likely to be superb but it's not a major consideration for me, so I guess I'll pop back in my box until something gives....

o/t Tilly I keep looking in on BLU, seems the price has struggled ever since the Satoshi presentations in early December. Ol' doodle still the same i see! Not hard to imagine why he got kicked out of munay-am :)

[tilly99] 16/1/2018 14:14

It's very wrong that an institution sells millions of shares and doesn't update market with an RNSI've complained to Ireland..maybe more of us should ask for transparency and disclosure?

[tilly99] 16/1/2018 12:10

150k just print at 95.5 print from yday and a 90k last night How can W not report a change in holding ..amazing really..not transparent

[tilly99] 16/1/2018 09:19

We knew Ireland would knock this at the earliest opportunity and that 100p wouldn't hold Any buyers sub 90p will make a lot of money as the profits and dividends here are near enough guaranteed for the next 5 years with only upside from trubrand etc to come We are a better buy at 90p than we were last week at 82p imho

[ntv] 16/1/2018 07:59

looking to buy the dips now profits are looking strong for the next few years
coupled with a decent dividend. it should be a very safe investment

[ntv] 16/1/2018 07:59

looking to buy the dips now profits are looking strong for the next few years
coupled with a decent dividend. it should be a very safe investment

[tilly99] 15/1/2018 16:34

Thx fftTotally agree

[fft] 15/1/2018 16:25

With the tax situation, it would be better if the seller was taken out and the shares cancelled. Even after that and the 5c dividend, it would probably still leave 5m plus in the bank. Eps up, future dividend per share increased, overhang gone. What is not to like about it. Unless Nabil has another excellent small scale acquisition lined up....

[tilly99] 15/1/2018 16:09

Would you rather the extra in dividends or a buyback at say 85p to take the seller out?What with dividend tax and the recent rise in sterling it may be beneficial to have the latter ? Definitely must be eps enhancing!!!I think Nabil prefers the divi route although I don't think he will pay divis in excess of cash over 5m although that's what's been promised

[fft] 15/1/2018 15:56

If the increase in revenue drops through to the dividend, and there is no reason why it shouldn't given the intention to reduce cash to 5m, this is going to be a high yield stock if the price is in the mid '80's.

The dividend in 2017 was 5c and the company has 45m shares.

The existing contract appears to deliver about 5m of revenue - which will now be 2.7 times higher and deliver 14m of revenue of which about 13m will be in the next 5 years. This gives an increase in revenue per year of about 1.6m per year. Margins ? 75% plus (is that right ?). So 1.2m drops through to the bottom line and that is about 2.6c per share extra for the dividend on this contract alone.

7.6c at 1.4USD to the GBP is about 5.4p a share. Yield would be 6%+ if we get back to 80p. And that excludes the other increased business which was mentioned in October, and the other irons that SPSY have.

If the figures above are right, Trubrand, Tobacco etc are real icing on the cake.

[tilly99] 15/1/2018 14:21

Couldn't have put it better HorndeanMany thanks

[horndean eagle] 15/1/2018 14:02

I can see it back sub 90p and mid 80s again until overhang is gone. Hoping for between 150p-200p later this year. Nabil had a few irons in the fire when we met him and today's news was one of them. Bigger plays are trubrand and the chinese Tobacco. If that makes progress the market will start to put in some hope value. At the moment there is very little of that. Could do with more II as well. The fact 18 is going to be a decent bump up from 17 will encourage fund managers to buy I think.

[tilly99] 15/1/2018 11:17

Volume not value!! Lol

[tilly99] 15/1/2018 11:12

HorndeanIrelands now marking us down and will do so for a while until we get some proper value What is your price target here for year end?

[tilly99] 15/1/2018 09:39

Also just seen the estimates A nice price target increase as wellIf trubrand wins a contract we will really be off to the races Wouldnt surprise me to see 200p sometime later this year However we need a fund to take this bloody seller outI expect a drift to 90p and then hopefully a big cross at that price to take seller out I think we are now in a higher trading range of 90p to 110p until the next news

[horndean eagle] 15/1/2018 09:28

Just had a look at WHI forecasts. 8.9c being forecast for next year. I would guess given under promise and over deliver that we will be higher than that. So still a modest rating. Hopefully we start hearing more on China and the huge opportunities they have there re tobacco.

[tilly99] 15/1/2018 08:27

Agree but as long as the company delivers we will get a fair valuation at some point We just have one of those rare moments when the largest holder wants out and we have to be patient ...or change our name to spectra blockchain!!

[horndean eagle] 15/1/2018 08:24

Agreed Tilly. However institutional interest hasn't really been there despite the numerous materially ahead. Not sure whether today's announcement will change that. Its not really caught retail punters imagination either. Look around elsewhere at the dross being pumped. End up feeling pretty hard done by in comparison.

[tilly99] 15/1/2018 08:13

HorndeanOverhang was always going to cap usMore opportunity for long term buyers and more chance of a large fund coming in and clearing the biggest holder out

[ntv] 15/1/2018 08:06

that news was worth waiting
did exactly what it said on the tin