Spectra Systems Share Discussion Threads

[shakeypremis] 28/11/2019 13:44

Written in the stars my friends;

hxxps://invst.ly/ou6n6

I did post the same a few weeks back.

[crazycoops] 28/11/2019 13:37

I suspect a few people spooked by DLAR (wrongly so in my view) and we have had a good run against general market weakness (especially small caps), so some profit taking is inevitable. I might even have a few more if circumstances permit (and if nico doesn't beat me to it). Perhaps there is also a lingering concern over the US/China trade situation and the Trubrand prospects with China cigarettes?On another note, is anyone else curious why the share buyback has never resumed?

[shanklin] 28/11/2019 13:07

Well this is a bit of a pain. No intention of selling.

[nico115] 26/11/2019 11:33

Are you joking ?I wouldn't hold too much credence to that New Mar rules means companies have to warn about a going concern but don't think there is any worry as to Dlar going bust

[pj 1] 26/11/2019 11:08

Are the other 2/3rds customers?

[someuwin] 26/11/2019 11:00

Seeing as they account for a third of all banknotes globally, they must be a customer of SPSY - surely.

"UK-based De La Rue prints about a third of the world's banknotes and employs more than 2,500 people globally."

[shanklin] 26/11/2019 10:47

Anybody any idea if DLAR one of SPSY's customers please?

[fft] 26/11/2019 10:41

Serious concerns in the annual report as to whether DLAR is a going concern. The last paragraph is a stinker - ''material uncertainty that casts significant doubt on the Group's ability to continue as a going concern'

From the Directors report :

"Following the challenging trading in the first six months of FY2019/20, the Group has prepared revised forecasts for the Going Concern period. These forecasts indicate that the Group can continue to operate within its banking covenant ratio Net Debt/EBITDA <=3.0 times.

A series of plausible downside scenarios were also prepared (with their impact on EBITDA and net debt modelled) reflecting the adverse trading environment and binary nature of the large currency contracts that underpin the Group's business model. The most significant of the plausible scenarios reflect: the performance risk and timing of revenue recognition on jobs for delivery in P11 and P12 FY 2019/20; the risk that the Group is not able to generate the necessary cost savings to enable a significant contract to deliver required profitability levels and cashflow risk associated with the unwind of the working capital build from H1.

In addition to the above, the following other plausible downsides were modelled: a further deterioration in trading conditions; additional costs arising associated with contingent liabilities and the Group's growth areas generating lower than forecasted margin.

The revised forecasts prepared by management indicate that the Group can continue to operate within its banking covenant ratio Net Debt/EBITDA <=3.0 times. In addition, the plausible downside risks referred to above continue to be actively managed to mitigate the impact on EBITDA and net debt.

However, given the more binary nature of the most significant plausible downside scenarios, if more than one of these were to occur concurrently without mitigation the Group would breach its net debt/EBITDA ratio. Therefore, we have concluded there is a material uncertainty that casts significant doubt on the Group's ability to continue as a going concern. In mitigation the Directors have suspended future dividends and management is focused on delivering the Company turnaround plan. "

[nico115] 26/11/2019 09:40

I don't think there are too many companies I think they let their cost base balloon Bad management

[pj 1] 26/11/2019 09:15

I'm surprised in a way that with the perilous financial position of DLAR, that any financial institutions are doing any Business with them, it must be a concern to rely on such a Company to supply you.

[aylingd] 26/11/2019 09:10

Things not looking good at De La Rue. Not sure what the relationship (if any) between DLR & SPSY is.

Is there any benefit, contagion here for SPSY ?

D.

[scooper72] 26/11/2019 09:09

So are you saying De La Rue problems are an opportunity for Spsy? On the radio just now one of the things they cited was too many companies chasing too few contracts.

[nico115] 26/11/2019 07:58

Our Authentication business continues to show good growth and provides some degree of balance to the Currency headwinds, while demand for polymer substrate is also exceeding our expectations.From De La Rue figs Bodes well for Spectra

[nico115] 25/11/2019 15:29

Well done BambooSpectra have made so much progress the last couple of years without our shares matching this I'm surprised the substrate news hasn't got anyone excited For me it a game changer with NO competition

[bamboo2] 22/11/2019 19:49

Added a few more today at just under 150

[cgequityinvest] 11/11/2019 16:52

Yes - interesting that Ron Brierley (the veteran corporate raider) was the founder of Mercantile and is also on the board of Sandon, the acquiring vehicle.

Sandon's philosophy is to be active investors.

Share price continues to be strong. As per Nico's recent message and the recent broker's note there is still loads of potential to be realised.

[fft] 11/11/2019 15:56

RNS issued. Sandon investments from Sydney Australia has taken over the 9.27% from Mercantile investments. Does that mean at least one overhang has now disappeared ? Interesting that they are held via WHI.

[nico115] 07/11/2019 15:18

Couldn't have put it better myself SimsoThanks for thatIt's certainly the most exciting Aim company I've come across with no doubt the cleverest most able Ceo.

[simso] 07/11/2019 15:02

I must say I agree with nico on this one. Four different opportunities at different stages of development...and even if only one fulfills its potential, then the company valuation would multiply. I personally think 2 or 3 of them will add meaningfully over the next couple of years. Healthy dividend while we wait for the potential to unfold.

On the downside we have a copper bottomed Balance Sheet with huge cash buffer, and long term contracts stretching forward with the bluest of blue chip customers.

Shares which have the chance of 5 or 10 bagging would normally be more "blue sky" and normally come with a corresponding downside risk of losing the lot. In SPSY case, I think the WHI assumption is correct that the present value of future cashflows on the existing known and contracted business is already worth £1.50 a share.

[clocktower] 07/11/2019 14:49

Then you will soon be a billion heir nico. (must be getting there already). :-)

Nice to have friends like RB! or is it RO again?

[nico115] 07/11/2019 13:46

Agreed I would rather be in cash than many companies in the U.K. affected by Brexit But I would rather be in Spectra than cash and see more chance of a melt up than a gap down that you are expecting because We have 1/ ceo who is a genius 2/ 15m Of dollar cash3/ pregnant with loads of new technology and inventions 4/ multiple recurring revs 5/ huge margins 6/ decent growing dividends 7/ customers like Central banks not affected so much by economic slowdowns and recessions8/ Four game changing opps valued at next to nothing by the market where 2 of them could double the market cap on their own and the other even bigger !!I'm a very happy holder and believe in spsy and it's founder 2025 Target Price 10 Pounds

[petewy] 07/11/2019 13:35

agreed fozzie

[nico115] 07/11/2019 13:27

I'm also pleased I'm in Spectra and not in CashI'm hoping that with the divi in June (8c) that my cost price is 0p on some of my holding !!

[fozzie] 07/11/2019 12:40

'Cash is King in the current climate imo' I can't agree with you there CT, my portfolio is near it's all time high and i am almost fully invested. I hold several shares that i really would not want to be out of at the moment, including Spectra. I accept it is all about managing your personal risk.

[someuwin] 07/11/2019 12:36

Three small buys tick it up.