Spectra Systems Share Discussion Threads

[rainmaker] 12/5/2014 08:40

Thanks Harrogate. BTW do you have the most recent estimates?

Tia

regards

[harrogate] 12/5/2014 07:30

Hi Rainmaker. I think those were the sort of numbers that were touted when they floated in 2011 but long since downgraded. I have a very large holding here but I think it is going to take some news on a bank note cleaning deal or partnership and some much better shareholder engagement from management to get us moving up but as you say net assets provides the headroom to be patient.

[rainmaker] 12/5/2014 00:59

Harrogate and PV-I took those numbers in good faith from a financial site and I didn't expect them to be wildly inaccurate but regardless I am still very optimistic for the share price and regardless of earnings estimates we are trading very cheaply, in terms of net working capital.

AIMHO, DYOR
regards

[patviera] 09/5/2014 20:37

Rainmaker doesnt normally get his numbers wrong but 1.9p sounds more like it otherwise we wouldnt be 21p if forecast was 6p EPS with 8.3p next year with 8m qd in cash!!

[harrogate] 09/5/2014 09:39

Pat.. All that stuff from rainmaker is baloney. The EPS forecast for this year updated after the results is around 1.9p ( edited since got the 1.3p wrong )

[patviera] 09/5/2014 09:35

RAINMAKER
you wrote this 6 months ago
Guys, I've just done some checking and as far as I'm concerned the total number of shares ie restricted and unrestricted is 45.251mln(not 21mln as they have) so applying a UK corporate tax rate of 23% will give eps of 6.125 for this year and 8.33p for next so at the offer price of 32p, it will be 5.22 and 3.84 times prospective earnings for this year and next respectively. Obviously still way to low given it's growth.

regards

DO you still think SPSY can make 8p EPS next year? How did you come across this stock?Why do you think it is so lowly rated? Is the Ceo on too high a wage?What price did you buy at? Who is selling in the market as I bought 200/- very easily?

Many Thanks
Pat
ps.do you really think this could be 10 pounds? Will we need to raise any money at any point?

[pj 1] 09/5/2014 09:14

I think Eezy is inferring SPSY should print their own Bank notes! lol :-o

[diku] 09/5/2014 08:50

If SPSY could make trillions then will I make a million?...

[eezymunny] 08/5/2014 13:07

I've looked a bit more at this bank note cleaning and things are becoming clearer. I reckon SPSY could make trillions from this...

[battlebus2] 01/5/2014 18:08

Bank note cleaners indeed :))

[diku] 01/5/2014 16:28

All those who sold yesterday...did they got taken to the cleaners?...

[glasshalfull] 30/4/2014 22:34

I was happy with results and outlook.

Per my tweet

@Glasshalfull1: SPSY (Spectra) Results beat WHI est. Great risk/reward play as net cash=shareprice. 2014est upgraded to $1.3m PBT &1.9p EPS (PER 10) #TMFPP

Regards,
GHF

[el1te] 30/4/2014 11:29

Woody - Bear in mind that margins will grow considerably once they get the new production facility into full flow. Hence why, combined with the sensor contract, a profit is actually expected next year.

Also worth noting that they've got non-current restricted cash on the books, which relate to some of their developments being funded

Hope that helps, El1te

[woodcutter] 30/4/2014 11:19

had a quick look at these and crunched some numbers. Still going through the detail of the report but based on financials with a few assumptions this is how it looks to me.

Assuming similar growth in revenue next year;
revenue $14233
GM @ 48% $6831

growth in sales was 23% and growth in overheads was 18.4% so assuming the same ratio

overheads $7420
EBITDA ($589)
Assume net I D&A ($300)
loss roughly ($900K)

BS looks decent with $13m in cash but down from $16m so cash erosion worth thinking about. Inventories at $3m looks large too probably a carry over from the major contract cancellation. loss isn't reflected in the cashflow from operations which looks reasonably solid in comparison.

My concerns would be the value of revenue required to break even (whilst the cash is being burned) which i guess is around $18m. I can see why the drop today but the potential looks interesting, with possible game change in bank note cleansing.

I'll watch with interest and do a little more background reading for now.

Woody

[el1te] 30/4/2014 08:51

No-one expected the figures to be great, that expectation is for next year. The restricted and unrestricted cash balance and other tangible asset cover the market cap, and there looks to be promising upside from:
- the new factory which should boost margins
- Inksure and the related market opportunities
- Aeris
- The latent potential of the covert security features from the failed CB deal

Hard to take the share price drop seriously when it's on minimal volumes and when you look at the trade prices.

All in all, results as expected with future potential.

[stewy_18] 30/4/2014 08:44

Actual figures were not great that is why it is down. Speculative, but I think it will do well over a 3 year time frame. Patience needed. In the meantime it could go anywhere.

[fozzie] 30/4/2014 08:40

Down 15% on what i thought was a very good statement. Back to bed for me.

[el1te] 30/4/2014 07:48

The brand authentication side sounds pretty interesting as well as the Central Bank ops. Positive outlook for the rest of the year and solid balance sheet.

[battlebus2] 30/4/2014 07:45

Results as expected with the improvement to follow into the remainder of 2014.

Prospects look great imv.


The Company's prospects have dramatically grown through the combination of the Inksure acquisition and the Company's organic banknote and product authentication development efforts, as well as our demonstration of a breakthrough technology for cleaning banknotes. Inksure customers include tax stamp authorities and brand owners who we feel will eventually be ready for upgraded, higher performance products built around our core technologies. Particularly important prospects for growth are:

1) The mobile phone based product authentication which will draw on both our expertise in optical materials and physics, as well as the database competence of the Secure Transactions Group.

2) The ongoing development effort initiated with Inksure by a large consumer brand supplier interested in a lock and key solution for their machines and consumables.

The combination of our new manufacturing facility shipping product for use by 18 central banks and the expected material qualification and contract renewal with a G8 central bank in 2014 will have a significant impact on our machine-readable materials margins. With the continued marketing efforts of our licensing partner, we will be able to increase earnings from this facility.

Our demonstration of a technology which can remove soiling substances (primarily human oils) without damaging the costly security features or compromising print has created a new paradigm in the banknote industry. Based on the continued growth in banknote production to the level of nearly 150 billion banknotes per year at a cost approaching $10 billion annually, we believe that we will have strong prospects for revenue growth in a segment of the industry where we expect to have controlling intellectual property.

The Board therefore believes that the Company continues to have excellent prospects and will perform strongly in 2014.

[diku] 30/4/2014 07:40

What say the results?...any views...

[stewy_18] 29/4/2014 07:32

I wait in hope rather than expectation. I think the contracts should start coming in this year.

[battlebus2] 29/4/2014 07:10

Spectra Systems will be releasing its year end results for 2013 on Wednesday, April 30, 2014.

[el1te] 28/4/2014 18:11

Great spot battlebus. Good news

[battlebus2] 28/4/2014 17:54

More good news....

PROVIDENCE, R.I., April 28, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- Spectra Systems Corporation (LSE: SPSY.L) is pleased to announce that it has signed a lottery Internal Control System (ICS) services contract to benefit the Michigan Lottery, which is the first to include a dedicated Internal Control System with new service and software development capabilities for Internet and mobile lottery. The contract has an initial term of four years with provisions for extensions.

The Michigan Lottery's iLottery services will allow Michigan residents to play their favorite existing lottery games through new distribution channels-over the Internet and on mobile devices. The ICS platform will provide the lottery an independent ability to monitor and validate the Internet and mobile sales and ensure player and system integrity and security.

"Spectra Systems is excited to help bring iLottery services to the residents of Michigan," expressed Nabil Lawandy, chief executive officer at Spectra Systems. He continued, "Over the coming years, we hope to bring security and integrity of ICS services to the benefit of lotteries as they open new channels of digital distribution."