Sosandar Share Discussion Threads

[apad] 15/9/2022 16:38

W13Ken, they also use TV in a highly selective way for the same purpose.
In the past they were much more profligate, but I suspect the new(ish) CFO is exerting more control and the company has learned its lesson well.
apad

[w13ken] 15/9/2022 16:27

RNS: The Company can confirm that it intends to release a trading update covering the six-month period ended 30 September 2022 on Tuesday 18 October 2022.

[w13ken] 15/9/2022 15:39

I joined the AGM virtually this morning and a question on heavy website discounting came up from a PI. When the previous message was posted there were a lot of discounts but the committee confirmed that this is usually used very infrequently and strategically to sign up new customers. By far the majority of their sales are at full price and I'm sure SOS are not interested in a chase to the bottom.

[raleigh43] 27/8/2022 12:06

I like the SOS story and the way things are going. I have not bought in yet though as I want to see if they get dragged down with the worsening cost of living crisis where the general doom and gloom will drag everyone down, even the good co's.

Their website is starting to resemble Joules though with MASSIVE DISCOUNTS everywhere, making it very difficult to hold full margins.OK, this will be a stock clearance but still.

Waiting to hear how things go over next three months before looking at jumping in.

[simso] 19/8/2022 12:18

Clearly the "read across" from Joul has damaged the sector sentiment today.. and specifically citing how much tougher the last 5 weeks have been (3 July weeks and 2 in August). As other posters have mentioned here.. I think there are at least 3 credible data sources which suggest Sos will have a very strong July, perhaps even better than the rate of travel in Q1 to June which we know is +81% v LY1. The Barclaycard spend data showing a very strong July for clothing .. citing the helpful warm weather.2. Next showed online sales in July the best for several months, also citing helpful warm weather. 3 Similarweb stats for Sosandar show a very strong increase in visits to site.I suspect the Joul warning says a lot more about them and their own performance... but it's easier to blame the market than blame yourself

[glavey] 12/8/2022 06:28

That's the difference between looking back and looking forward.

[aleman] 11/8/2022 14:18

The British Retail Consortium reported strong summer fashion sales in July thanks to the heatwave. Now we have another heatwave in August. We already know the first 3 months of the year were very strong, with positive EBITDA and PTP. That's very likely up to 5 months now. The company are likely to report bumper numbers at the interims yet the shares are half the price of Autumn 2017.

[brileyloucan] 11/8/2022 09:55

I just managed to buy 45000 with no problem. Perhaps this is being digested.

[someuwin] 11/8/2022 09:51

In demand today - can buy £1k. But not £2k.

[simso] 04/8/2022 12:53

Next results were encouraging this morning too, and upgraded full year expectations based on strong June / July...and they credit the warm and dry weather. We know SOS up to the end of June...but hopefully that read-across from Next suggests good July.
The incomparable Lord Wolfson of Next is now guiding the Market for +1% FP sales growth in the second half (to Jan 23) having achieved +5% in the first half...and cites the potential cost of living issues in Autumn and also favourable weather which may not repeat in H2. For reference, SOS sales were +81% v LY in Q1 and need to +35% in the balance of the year to reach consensus..which feels very prudent to me...especially in the light of Lord Wolfson revised guidance on Next.

[thetrotsky] 04/8/2022 10:21

Now a 750k and still Peel holds the bid at 22.5p! There must surely be a large buyer in the wings? Since Peel raised the bid at 9.21am there have been c1.4m shares sold and still the bid price is held.

[aleman] 04/8/2022 09:58

What is this odd run of 10-50k trades in the last half hour?

[aleman] 03/8/2022 21:00

Don't forget they sounded close to adding one more likely final significant 3rd party site in the UK, which should also give a boost. So:

H2 profit £935k
9 consecutive months of positive EBITDA and pretax profit
That includes Jan and Feb - traditionally the weakest months and in that profitable H2
All sales and marketing cost metrics improving as customer numbers increase and each orders more
Another 3rd party site sales boost likely soon
Planning to attack international markets soon
More lines, especially accessories
And of course Q1 sales +81%

So the shares are only at the average of the last 5 years, and just starting to bounce off 12-month lows, yet the business has grown and continues to grow very rapidly, and has broken comfortably into profit, which should show dramatically at the H1 trading update and interim numbers in October and November

[simso] 03/8/2022 11:20

Great posts someuwin, and as you say, the stats on their own site are all heading in the right direction...visits, conversion, AOV. The number of "active" customers increased from 135k in FY21 up to 223k in FY22, and that will continue to increase as they spend £4m-£5m a year on Marketing and add to the database. Once they are on the database, they email them every day...and most of the sales come from customers clicking through from that email.

i think the progress last year on 3rd party sites (JLP, Next, Marks) is arguably even more exciting...and one can deduce that around £10m of the £29.5m in FY22 came from third party. This is from almost a standing start...with only c£1m at most in FY21. The most exciting thing here is that only around 15% of the Sosandar range was available on third party sites in FY22...so the scope to increase both breadth and depth is significant here. Add to that, the new "next Plus" deal, you can see 839 Sosandar options now available on the Next site as of yesterday (c46% of the range), the new partnership with Very Group, and the likelihood of further 3rd Party deals internationally over the next 12 months. The runway ahead of us is significant here.

[someuwin] 03/8/2022 10:56

Active customers so far 223k (increase of 65% YoY).

Total addressable market in their core demographic = 13 million.

So they've only captured 1.7% of the market so far. And that's just the UK. Their unique formula will work in all developed countries.

So much more to come here.

As The Telegraph said a few weeks ago...

"It is a thoroughly modern brand, selling affordable designs online only and through e-commerce partnerships with M&S, Next and John Lewis – and women today seemingly fall into one of two camps: they either love Sosandar, or they have never heard of it."

[someuwin] 02/8/2022 14:46

Another positive metric is CPA (Cost Per customer Acquisition) this is the aggregate cost (marketing cost) to acquire one new customer.

In 2020 SOS CPA was £54.46 In 2022 this had come down by 65% to £18.89. And should keep dropping as the business expands further.

This means they get a lot more bang for their marketing buck, and each new customer becomes profitable much earlier.

Increasing levels of repeat orders (and increase in number of orders per annum) show that their customers like what SOS are offering and will hopefully remain customers for the long term. Thus each repeat order makes that customer more and more profitable.

The whole thing is a positive feedback loop where the cost to expand becomes cheaper as the company expands more. So the costs become cheaper still - etc etc.

[apad] 02/8/2022 14:13

I agree with your post, someuwin.
The brand skills of the founders reign supreme. I used to think they were a build and test company, but have since learned that the founders are predicting the trends and have stocks!
Doesn't mean that they won't build and test on third party sites, as they have stated.
The brand and the profitability of the company or the current market are independent variables.
Management has to keep the brand at the forefront, regardless.
The alternative is obscurity.
FeverTree is a good comparator. Keep on spending 😊

apad

[someuwin] 02/8/2022 13:44

As I show in post #3352, their customers are mainly from the most affluent groups - so are relatively shielded from any recession.

Look at the revenue growth.



All meterics are moving in the right direction.

* Every month in H2 FY2022 being profitable.

* Active customers increased 65% to 223k

* Conversion Rate of 3.87%, up 25% from 3.09%.

* Average order frequency increased by 10% to 2.28 times per annum.

* Web Visits up 47% to 13,141,632.

* Cash 7.0 million.

* Very strong start to Q1 FY2023 with revenue of GBP10.4m representing a record quarter and an increase of 81% against Q1 FY2022.

They reduced loss in 2022 from -2.9m to -0.2m so at the same rate could easily make 3m profit in the current year. 45m valuation minus 7m cash = enterprise value of 33m so possible current PE of 11 is very cheap with their fantastic growth and huge market yet to be tapped.

[gopher] 02/8/2022 12:07

The difficulty with Sosandar is how much value can you attach to the brand at this stage as they are not yet profitable and a recession is looming.

[forethought] 01/8/2022 13:01

Seems the market is liking what is going on with Sosander and the positive direction of travel.

[daijavu] 01/8/2022 11:39

There's at least one selling/profit taking, inexperienced, day trader active today.

Why buy shares in a company if you are going to sell them for just a small profit if the share price ticks up a fraction?

[dancing piranha] 29/7/2022 17:19

Nice day with no sell orders holding it back!

[dancing piranha] 26/7/2022 22:01

With you in it too....

[someuwin] 20/7/2022 08:34

This slide from the presentation clearly shows the main differentiator that separates SOS from the majority of other online fashion retailers.

Affluent customers offers high protection from cost of living rises...