Sosandar Share Discussion Threads

[pj fozzie] 14/12/2017 10:30

vatpaul,

On what basis do you say "This company has no respect for shareholders money"? After raising funds through the IPO, what would you like to see Sosander do with the money?

Thanks,
PJ

[someuwin] 14/12/2017 09:47

Changed the header charts to show volume / trades.

[yump] 14/12/2017 08:57

I beg to differ. 9.5p seems more realistic.

Only joking. I think 23.5p is more likely, based on sticking a finger in the air.

[vatpaul] 14/12/2017 08:14

This company has no respect for shareholders money

Target remains 10p short term

[dan_the_epic] 13/12/2017 14:23

"If you don't understand fashion, then clear off muppets!"

Hope you're not including me in that...!

[yump] 13/12/2017 10:48

Mine was around 145025000 but that obviously didn't start from 1 and I expect there are other numbers with totally different starting figures, so unless a pattern emerges, probably of no use !

[yump] 13/12/2017 09:27

I will. The initial reaction to the catalogue that appeared through our letterbox was that she couldn't decide amongst about 10 dresses, so that was positive.

Assuming its all good feedback, there's still the little problem of when to buy. Or is it one of those you just stick a small stake at whatever price early on, because its multibag or bust ?

At least with fashion retail, there's no waiting for contracts (tech shares) - you can see the sales, the visitor numbers, the order numbers, the tweets etc.

I seem to remember in the early days of ASOS, people were posting their order numbers on the board...

Perhaps we should have an order number thread...

[pugugly] 13/12/2017 08:05

yump - When you have feedback from the female side please share - Nothing like target market (or those who understand target market) feedback to get a feel of potentail or lack of potential - Remember waht is in fashion today can easily be the New Year 50% clearout product -

[yump] 13/12/2017 07:29

I don't think the issue is one of understanding fashion is it ? Its the numbers. With a net revenue of about 500K, its basically a start up with an idea and some sales and no idea whether the model will work for more than a few years enough to generate profits.

Whether the share price will rise regardless is another matter though. When to punt its the old question...

Anyway, my wife and her friends certainly understand fashion, so I will be finding out from them whether they think its got legs.

[paulypilot] 13/12/2017 01:59

Relax! If you don't understand fashion, then clear off muppets!

P.

[yump] 12/12/2017 13:00

Actually you can do it on the back of an envelope. Halve the revenue for net sales, halve that for the 50% margin, subtract costs as what they've already obviously spent in a year, subtract an increase in costs because of higher resource use, minus at least 25% of revenue for marketing...

[dan_the_epic] 12/12/2017 12:45

I'm going to be honest. Just had a look and the assumptions in those broker forecasts look damn optimistic. Revenue here will probably hit the broker numbers but the cost lines down to profit look ridiculous to me. I don't expect them to get near the broker profit forecasts

[yump] 12/12/2017 12:38

Or a sell signal...
Or a take no notice whatsoever signal...

I would bet that because of the share price rises of BOO and ASOS, that this will get pumped to the rafters at some point, regardless of actual financials.

The one thing you can guarantee is that a lot of punters will buy because others are buying, or sell because the share price is dropping and simply not take any notice of fundamentals.

I will be taking my advice from the wife on this one.

[andysand] 12/12/2017 10:21

https://www.shareprophets.com/views/33225/sosandar-trading-update-putting-some-meat-on-the-bone

[andysand] 12/12/2017 10:20

Some good info from the company here. I can't just post it as I am sure there are copyright issues.https://www.shareprophets.com/views/33225/sosandar-trading-update-putting-some-meat-on-the-bone

[nw99] 12/12/2017 08:56

Ive looked at the results and like them have made initial trade bought 50k .Look for a seven figure profit on sales of well over £6 million. Thereafter the ramp up is likely to be rapid.

[davwall] 11/12/2017 16:05

Yump - I do not think the current sp, which caught an updraught from a newspaper article a few weeks ago, is sustainable. There has to be a lot of sentiment invested here, but that tends to degrade once the numbers don't match expectations quick enough. Meanwhile, their future ops updates probably need a bit more substance than 'everything is going so lovely since we got all that money' - which does hint at the hobbyist origins as mentioned by Rathean.
I'll report on the product testing that will be carried out soon by her indoors...

[harebridge] 11/12/2017 16:01

Paul Scott comments on Stockopedia. Paul writes in the comments (please note that he owns shares in this company):Sosandar (LON:SOS) - "Trading update makes generally positive noises, but gives no figures. Since the share price already has considerable expectations built into it, I think today's news won't necessarily move the share price up. It should however give holders comfort that things are going to plan (or rather, better than plan), hence preventing the share price from going down.The only forecasts I have are a detailed note from Turner Pope from Aug 2017, which is the broker that floated Sosandar. This shows forecast revs of £1.0m this year 03/2018, rising to £3.3m 03/2019, and £9.4m 03/2020.PBT is forecast at -£1.9m this year, followed by -£1.4m 03/2019, and a small maiden profit of £0.1m in 03/2020. Whilst these figures may look unexciting in terms of profitability, they look very exciting in terms of revenue growth. The market would extrapolate out the rapid growth rate, and value the shares on a racy multiple. I can foresee a £50-100m valuation within a year or two, if growth is strong. That may sound crazy, but we're in a bull market, where online fashion businesses that are demonstrating strong growth are given hefty valuations. Just look at the bonkers valuation given to hapless Koovs (LON:KOOV) a while ago, even though it was generating tiny revenues and huge losses.SOS is well-funded for now, and exited the IPO process with net cash of about £7m, I believe. So it shouldn't need to come back to the market for more cash for the foreseeable future.SOS is now one of my largest personal holdings, because I'm backing the experienced, and capable management. If you look at what they achieved in 1 year from startup, it's astonishing. Hence why I think the premium valuation is justified.Note that there is about 18% potential dilution from share options for the founder management, as they had been diluted down to only 5% each from previous funding rounds, and the key people need to be incentivised. Not ideal, but I can live with it. Critics have said that there's something wrong with Sosandar, because management got diluted so much in the early stages, compared with say Boohoo.Com (LON:BOO) founders who retained almost 100% control before floating. What these critics overlook is that BOO was funded by an existing, highly profitable wholesale business (called Jogo/Pinstripe). So the BOO founders already had pots of money, so were able to fund BOO from scratch without dilution. Founders of Sosandar just weren't in a financial position to do that.Anyway, time will tell whether this is an inspired stock pick, or bull market froth!" END.

[rathean] 11/12/2017 11:42

The risk for me was their ability to take a hobby business and upscale. The RNS states that they can so anything below 20p represents value imho, of course the results when they're published showing cost per customer, margins, cash flow and bank balance will solidify value in the current share price. Still a punt but one I have more confidence in.

[vatpaul] 11/12/2017 11:21

How much cash is left and what is monthly burn rate?

[yump] 11/12/2017 11:16

Ditto.

Problem is working out when to buy in, as they clearly won't be making a profit for a year or 2, but once the signs are that they might, some heavy buying will come in as I don't think anyone can resist the lure of another ASOS or BOO.

[davwall] 11/12/2017 10:47

My other half has an order in for a couple of dresses having been impressed with the on-line pictures (the marketing seems to have reached her okay). She's quite fussy so I'll be very interested in her views. If she is happy with the product quality and service I'll get on board.

[yump] 11/12/2017 10:38

I suggest everyone goes away and works out why some companies do well and others don't. That's probably a good start to investing.

...and yes that is meant to be patronising to a few.

In terms of the business itself, I intend to talk to as many potential buyers of the clothes as I can.

This time I'll take some notice, as I didn't with BOO. At that time I did chat to my daughter who told me that everyone she knew was buying stuff from BOO, because they all 'had' to have new outfits each time they went out and BOO provided that cheaply. Unfortunately I decided that market was fickle and could be reproduced by lots of retailers, so I sold out too early.

Perhaps the same is true of SOS, dont know yet. But I do know that so far, the handful of buyers I've spoken to tend to stick to the same retailers.