Sopheon Share Discussion Threads

[smithie6] 25/8/2016 10:52

5.2k shares bt at 270p


trades today say the share price is going up....

[adamb1978] 25/8/2016 10:50

Having been through the figures since my earlier post, I've sold the small remaining portion of the shares which I owned (I'd bought in at 97p and then sold two-thirds of my position when the price doubled).

The main reason for selling is that when I bought in, to a certain extend I felt like i was holding my nose and buying - it was bought as a trade rather than investment. The reasons for this are (i) the Board is exceptionally weak - no outsiders, no real NEDs, and no people joining remotely recently to bring fresh ideas and (ii) the product seems very generic and opaque to me and I didn't really understand what value they actually bring for customers.

In terms of the numbers, I think they'll do around 25p diluted EPS for the year, so its only on around 10x however because of the limitations mentioned above, and part just gut feel, I dont see this is something which will carry on growing at 20%-30% per year and I dont see it ever being rated higher than around 10x, partly because its an overseas co. The pence EPS figures are also flattered by the FX rate - if you believe that £ will eventually recover towards 1.5 or 1.6 to the $, you write-off a years growth.

Maybe I'm wrong but I bought this as a short-term trade, despite not really liking the board, and just because it was exceptionally cheap. Perhaps now its just cheap, or perhaps its fair value - who knows but am happier to bank the profits are move on. I think the main gains have been made here.
All the best for holders,

Adam

[smithie6] 25/8/2016 10:46

...cant argue with that imho....

the mkt may grumble about paying up to buy....but imho it will...

the dip to 245 area did not last for too long.....

[eagle eye] 25/8/2016 10:29

Current market expectations were 12.7p for the year to December 16 and Sopheon have exceeded that in H1. The vertical chart will scare many investors off, but this is a fast moving target. Have added here this morning.

[trinko] 25/8/2016 10:09

Chartist, what is de next Flag above 254 pence? 295pen?

Thank you very much Trinko

[eagle eye] 25/8/2016 09:37

Smithie6, There lies the opportunity...there are some fantastic gems to be found on AIM providing you work hard to find them. AIM companies can now be held in ISAs, so if you hit some big winners its all tax free. Happy days :-))

[eagle eye] 25/8/2016 09:20

The 6K @ 290p looks like someone paying a premium at the opening bell.
Cracking set of results with healthy cash position.
Outlook positive and still looks good value IMHO.

[bamboo2] 25/8/2016 09:11

Just noticed this trade at 09:01, 6k at 289.99

43 289.99 6000 O Y 245.0 246.0 09:01:31 6,000

What are these, anyone know? There was a similar premium priced trade yesterday

[smithie6] 25/8/2016 09:08

6000 shares at 290p

velly interesting !
----

buy, sell, hold ?

Im holding on from lower down...
good results and not expensive imho....so high chance that it will grind upwards over next 2-3 wks imho

in 3 or 5 years time....who knows where it might be....could this be one of those rare 'winners' phps in a sea of so much rubbish on AIM ?

[penpont] 25/8/2016 09:07

Top-up time?. Hope so, just have...

[ramridge] 25/8/2016 08:30

forgot to mention. Recurrent revenue is now around £7m . which is about 40% of revenue.

[modform] 25/8/2016 08:29

Still running with some of the profit, I top sliced yesterday as it had grown to be too large portion of my PF, almost 6% for such a small cap. The numbers look very good with such a low peg

[interceptor2] 25/8/2016 08:24

Agree ramridge

The directors also agree as witnessed by their buying after the last AGM statement, I wonder if they have the funds if they will be tempted to add again?

[smithie6] 25/8/2016 08:23

bloomin eck

slowly waking up....first coffee of the day...

and Sopheon up yet again...despite having rocketted in recent weeks...lurvely !

---

if forecast P/E now comes down to 7.8 as per last post...
then one assumes that the share price can only go up from current price..
but since I bought at much lower price I cant contemplate buying now !
..mentality, often can be a block/error...

[ramridge] 25/8/2016 08:19

These are fantastic results.

- eps 13.9p at HY so expect around 30p for full year. which is more than double broker forecasts of 12.7p for the full year
- forecast PE comes down to 234/30 = 7.8
- no debt; in fact net cash £5m which is approx 29% of market value
- free cash flow for HY around £1m

For a growth company, this is a steal.

[interceptor2] 25/8/2016 08:14

Excellent results with EPS and Profit much higher than I expected, management seem to have an understated style in their statements, most other directors would be shouting these results from the rooftops!

I had actually worked out an EPS figure to full year of 22.5p before today's results and thought I might have been a tad optimistic, but now it looks like even the diluted EPS figure will be much higher than my estimate.

[adamb1978] 25/8/2016 08:05

Opex very well controlled - $6.4m in H1 this year compared to $7.4m in H2 last year

[elsa7878] 25/8/2016 08:00

Market cap should be worked on the basis of adding in the convertibles and 600,000 in the money share options. There will be 10.55 million shares and therefore a market cap of £24.6 million.

[dixies] 25/8/2016 07:59

finnCap has raised target price to 360p.

[adamb1978] 25/8/2016 07:52

So we'll see diluted EPS in the 25-30p range say, basic EPS north of 30p.

$2.5m net cash on the balance sheet, significant more if you're looking at diluted EPS figures given the convert will have gone away

All for a 230p share price and £17m mkt cap

Still cheap - needs to be around £3

[cfro] 25/8/2016 07:47

Excellent results. :0))

GLA

[elsa7878] 25/8/2016 07:43

Diluted eps 13.8p. Nice

Revenue has gone $8.4 m , $12.5m, $11.5 m in the last 3 quarters.

Half year to half year sales are up 37% but full year forward orders are only up 22% (15m to 18.4m). Sales are up only from $17m to $18.4m in the last 3 months. Shows how lumpy revenues are.

SAAS revenues good for recurring but not so good for large upfront revenues. If this is a progressive element it would be a slight worry.

Not quite as excited as I was though I did sell most of my shares at 170p.

Will wait for full year forecasts and broker comments before deciding what to do.

Luck all.

[battlebus2] 25/8/2016 07:30

Very happy with continued progress...The overall profit before tax reported for the half year period was $1.6m (2015: loss of $0.5m). This result includes interest, depreciation and amortization costs amounting to $1.3m (2015: $1.4m). The EBITDA result for the first half of 2016, which does not include these elements, was a profit of $2.9m (2015: $0.9m).

[rem108] 25/8/2016 07:12

RNS, EXCELLENT !

[battlebus2] 24/8/2016 19:23

Cheers CFRO, nothing wrong with taking profits. Fingers crossed if indeed there's an update in the morning.