Sdx Energy Share Discussion Threads

[deanroberthunt] 29/1/2019 16:26

how many fat people are successful entrepreneurs? not many

[deanroberthunt] 29/1/2019 16:25

never trust someone who can't control their own diet.

[deanroberthunt] 29/1/2019 15:41

yeah, just take a look at VOG....IOG et al....

[shakeypremis] 29/1/2019 13:17

He's a walrus. He can't help not knowing anything about picking good O&G investments.

[bushranger] 29/1/2019 13:14

As far as Malcy goes, he got a bit of a 'guru' status in 2016 as his Bucket List of stocks rose an average of 400%+. This was helped in no small measure by the exuberance of a full on bull market and an oil price that doubled from an eyewatering low. Late 2017 onwards and many of his stocks have done poorly and lost people a lot of money who failed to DYOR and risk managed his stocks. He has taken some flack recently especially on twitter for promoting FRR ( which is delisting). I would agree with other posters here that Malcy reguritates what the company has said in it's RNS's. Also he almost always emphasises the positive and downplays any negatives. He seems to talk a lot about the oil & gas assets but mostly ignores to drill into the company's finances or governance.

[thegreatgeraldo] 29/1/2019 11:11

The Drewster
29 Jan '19 - 11:06 - 7374 of 7375
0 0 0
First gas is expected in mid 2019 with a gross production rate of 50-60 MMscfd with the gas being sold to the state at $2.85 Mcf.
50MMscf demand would be $142,500 revenue per day
That’s about $50M/annum.

Gross, before SDX's partner's share & before state royalties

[tli8jaguar] 29/1/2019 11:09

Just heard that Mercedes Benz is to build an assembly plant in Egypt, got to be a confidence booster.

[shakeypremis] 29/1/2019 11:07

That's not net to SDX though, net entitlement revenue is more like $40,000/day.

[the drewster] 29/1/2019 11:06

First gas is expected in mid 2019 with a gross production rate of 50-60 MMscfd with the gas being sold to the state at $2.85 Mcf.
50MMscf demand would be $142,500 revenue per day
That’s about $50M/annum.

[itsriskythat] 29/1/2019 07:21

The man says "With 2019 expected to be a ‘landmark year’ according to the company it should see further benefits to shareholders after a pretty good 2018, the outlook for SDX is indeed very positive."

Further benefits?

Shares are now down to January 2017 levels.

[captain james t kirk] 29/1/2019 07:01

One could listen to Malcy or alternatively just re read the rns.
It would be nice if once in a while he actually analysed what has been released, rather than just repeating it walrus fashion.

[denial_notjust_a_river] 29/1/2019 02:33

LOL - what a report!

Looks like entitlement production will now be very close to or below 3K boed.

SD is coming online sometime 'mid 2019', as opposed to H1 2019.....as opposed to early 2019.....as opposed to late 2018......

Basically almost no growth in Morocco gas sales.

Delisting from TSX, due to lack of interest among institutional investors (I wonder why?)

....but go ahead a listen to Malcy!

[napoleon 14th] 28/1/2019 20:31

A LTBH for sure! Still, the news is positive. This is Malcy's take on SDX today...


A major operations update from SDX this morning as the company describes 2019 as a ‘landmark year’ with a number of important milestones that they intend to meet across the portfolio that will ‘deliver significant value for shareholders’.

In Morocco, the Gharb Centre 3D seismic has been processed and initial interpretation has been completed. The data quality is excellent and multiple leads and prospects have been identified. Accordingly, planning for a twelve well campaign has begun and drilling will commence late in Q3/early Q4 and complete in 1H 2020. The programme will include re-testing LNB-1 and LMS-1 in Lalla Mamouna and the rest will come from the Gharb Centre seismic work. It is expected that three of the twelve wells will be completed and connected in 2019 making the year’s capex a gross $10m with SDX shares $8m. Of this $8m, $6m is for wells and $2m for facilities and field capex. SDX is targeting gross production of 9-11 MMscfd of conventional gas sales in 2019.

In Egypt the company is unsurprisingly concentrating on South Disouq, the first half will see the completion of the construction of the Central Processing Facility, the 10 km export pipeline and tie-ins of the four existing producing wells. First gas is expected in mid 2019 with a gross production rate of 50-60 MMscfd with the gas being sold to the state at $2.85 Mcf. In the area prospect inventory is expected to increase after recent 3D seismic and the company will drill two further exploration wells in 2019 with multiple conventional gas prospects and a conventional oil prospect also identified.

Elsewhere in Egypt the company are continuing to work on the Meseda concession as well as NW Gemsa, production guidance for 2019 is 4,000-4,200 bopd for the former and 3,400-3,600 bopd for the latter. Meseda will see some drilling during the year but not at NW Gemsa which is a fully developed field.

SDX had $17m of cash at the year end, no debt and an undrawn $10m facility for Morocco from the EBRD so is very strongly placed financially, having received $4.5m of backdated Egyptian receivables in Q4 and expecting to see further reduction in its balance this year. Finally, the company is planning to relocate from Canada to the UK where a predominance of shareholders are to be found, the move is expected to be completed in Q2 2019 and ‘will result in meaningful annual savings in admin costs, management time and a more tax efficient corporate structure’. With 2019 expected to be a ‘landmark year’ according to the company it should see further benefits to shareholders after a pretty good 2018, the outlook for SDX is indeed very positive.

[matchmade] 28/1/2019 15:31

kenmitch: you support my point really: SDX's share price only seems to respond very temporarily to news like exploration success or the Circle Oil takeover, not ongoing improved production or demonstrated profitability in trading statements (even if all the profits immediately disappear into capex). AIM might reward certain e-retailers and software companies and drive them to very high p/e ratios, but O&G and natural resources companies like SDX have been crushed and driven to very low market capitalisations in recent years, virtually regardless of their real business performance. AIM is no weighing machine: it's just fat spreads and sugar rushes.

[captain james t kirk] 28/1/2019 11:38

shakey True, we shouldn't forget that, certainly when compared to S.Disouq, we are talking lower volumes but very much higher margins in Morocco.

[kenmitch] 28/1/2019 11:03

matchmade

Doubt that being AIM listed is a problem. Plenty of AIM shares do very well. E.g Fevertree, Blue Prism, BOO, ASOS and plenty more.

Also AIM quote didn’t stop SDX going much higher than current price last year.

Good news flow is far more important than whether or not a share is on AIM.

[shakeypremis] 28/1/2019 10:45

CJTK, no one is interested over here either it seems!

If SDX get 11mmcf/d in 2019 I will be very pleased. They were only doing 6.5mmcf/d at the beginning of 2018. Those mcf's are worth about $2.3m per year net to SDX. At 11mmcf/d that'd be about $25m profit per year. Given SDX's record with targets however, I think we should not expect to hit 11. We should prepare ourselves to settle for 9.

[captain james t kirk] 28/1/2019 10:18

Good summary shakey. The importance of S.Disouq has been even further underlined. As you point out, Morocco isn't exactly moving forwards in leaps and bounds with 11 mmscf/d not even half the pipeline capacity of 24 mmscf/d.

matchmade
I liked the fact that SDX was dual listed because the TSX is more tightly regulated than the AIM.
However, one of the reasons they became listed in the UK was to increase investor interest in the Company.
Volumes are very low on the Canadian market and as they said in the rns, they don't get much institutional interest over there.

[shakeypremis] 28/1/2019 09:29

Captain, at a minimum SDX are going to need circa US$11m from cash flow if they elect to use the US$10m debt facility to fund the US$8m projected Morocco CAPEX. If they don't use it then they'll need an extra US$19m from cash flow. Both numbers should be possible to fund from cashflow and there should be a little extra receivables balance recovered from the Egyptian government over the course of 2019. You can see why they moved back the work programmes to the later stages of 2019 as otherwise they'd have likely run out of money.

My concern isn't the capital spend or SDX needing a placement (they don't), it's that they are spending all of their free cash flow on CAPEX for exploration and development but so far all of that cash spent has yielded very little additional production. Yes there are the Rabul wells and it looks like Moroccan production has increased to about 8.5mmcf/d from 6.5mmcf/d which was the previous figure which is good. Hopefully this all starts to change after SD and the central processing facility are brought online as obviously SD starts producing cash and any future gas discoveries can be brought online much more quickly and cheaply.

Target for production from Morocco this year is 9-11mmcf/d. If SDX hit 11mmcf/d I will be happy, but 9? That would be pretty pathetic given it was supposed to be between 8-10mmcf/d by year end 2018.

Looks like there will be no oil exploration well drilled in SD until 2020 or later now; "The Company is planning to drill two further exploration wells in 2019, with multiple additional conventional gas prospects and a conventional oil prospect also identified for future drilling." Most likely the two wells will be gas exploration wells. Not too disappointed with that. Get the SD facility up to 100mmcf/d and that's around US$24 in after tax profit per year.

[matchmade] 28/1/2019 09:27

Everyone's criticising TSX; I would prefer we get off the casino that is AIM! SDX is only one of any number of AIM-listed companies where the share price movement bears almost no relation to the actual business performance, and the share price spreads are obscene.

Delisting from TSX may save some costs, but it reduces the company's visibility and shareholder base to effectively zero in the North American market, and hardly seems likely to improve the share price performance for the remaining shareholders who use the small and deeply-flawed market that is AIM.

[basem1] 28/1/2019 08:39

Good news getting rid of the TSX listing, I hate having to follow that slumberyard market.

[captain james t kirk] 28/1/2019 08:37

There's a lot of capex in there guys. $36 million net to SDX, if I've done my sums correctly.

[haideralifool] 28/1/2019 07:49

Rumour has it that Proactive Investors refused to set up a studio in Canada.