Sdx Energy Share Discussion Threads

[cwmwillis] 18/12/2018 15:18

Unfortunately Santa didn’t bring us SD and we have been punished by the MM grinch’s. Easter bunny maybe?

[shakeypremis] 18/12/2018 13:23

cwm, it's a good company, no debt too. If they can get themselves producing majority gas under contracted price that will remove a lot of oil price risk from the stock.

I shall take that as a compliment :) Merry Christmas to you too. No I won't be working for the Samaritans, I've got my own charity case to deal with lol.

[cwmwillis] 18/12/2018 12:58

Yes I doo.. Been reading yours/others posts for the last 18months both here and also on LSE.

You are a very baffling character indeed!!

But hey ho, its nearly Xmas!!

Ps. Never work for the Samaritans ;)

[shakeypremis] 18/12/2018 12:48

Do you know anything about the company cwm? They are transitioning to being a majority gas producer as soon as Q2 2019 and will be selling gas at contracted rates of $2.65/mcf + possibly something extra for condensate production in Egypt and between $10-$12/mcf in Morocco. That's why I am not selling. Additionally there is big exploration upside in both Egypt (both oil and gas)and Morocco (relatively speaking).

[cwmwillis] 18/12/2018 12:42

Ok, but if you really think that oil is heading for $20... Why do you hold?? Only a lunatic would do so?? Right??

[shakeypremis] 18/12/2018 12:33

cwmwillis, I have not sold a single share here. I wish I had though, say at 70p. I've been in here since February 2017 and not made any money so far lol. How's that?

$10, nice find qackers. Maybe BP will be a bit easier to make a deal with now the oil price is much lower.

[qackers] 18/12/2018 12:04

Quote from above interview



What is the company’s policy to ensure low cost production?

We pride ourselves on our strict financial discipline and always try to ensure that our funds are used as efficiently as possible. This is underpinned by a portfolio of low cost onshore producing assets and exploration prospects. This focus on capital discipline, and asset location and type, means that we are one of the lowest cost producers in the region and can remain cash flow positive down to around $10 per barrel of Brent at the corporate level.

Having financial discipline means that we focus on controlling our costs both from an operating and capital investment perspective. We focus on costs because it is something that we can control, knowing that we cannot control the oil price. We then develop and invest in assets that allow us to maintain this focus to ensure that we can prosper throughout the exploration and production cycle. When prices are low, we are resilient, but when prices increase, we become highly cash generative. Egypt’s asset base has many opportunities that fall within this framework, which is why we have been so keen on expanding here.

[cwmwillis] 18/12/2018 11:54

At what price did you sell out at Shakey?

[shakeypremis] 18/12/2018 11:40

Qackers, as long as the assets can produce profitably at circa $20 oil, because that definitely where oil could go.

[qackers] 18/12/2018 11:33

Maybe they can get a better price on the BP deal. Dont remember Paul saying the deal was dead in the recent interview I watched.

[shakeypremis] 18/12/2018 10:02

Anything can happen when markets crash. Intrinsic value is irrelevant.

[plentymorefish] 18/12/2018 09:56

Fair enough shakey - it's hunker down time for me, I wasn't selling in the 50's so I'm not doing so in the 30's - crikey, 30's, who'd have guessed that's where we'd be at the end of 2018?!

[shakeypremis] 18/12/2018 09:54

Plentymorefish, at the moment, SDX derive a big portion of their profits from oil in Egypt. Once they get SD online, that will change.

[darola] 18/12/2018 09:44

General market downterm, plus the “big” news on SD is not expected for 6 months, so folk either moving to cash or another option.

I remain confident that at anytime SDX could announce M&A activity, and still think from PWs last words that the BP deal could still happen.

[plentymorefish] 18/12/2018 09:43

I thought SDX was geared more towards 'gas' and that it sells it on 5 year fixed priced deals in the main?

[shakeypremis] 18/12/2018 09:42

Bottom could *potentially* be somewhere in the mid-high 20's. It seems inconceivable but that is where the Canadian chart directs me. Maybe low 30's.

Escapetohome, this sell off is sector wide, it's the oil price mostly. It could also be some big players selling out because they believe/know a recession is beginning/has already begun and the oil price will fall further.

[escapetohome] 18/12/2018 09:05

Havent been following this one, so not sure on bottom.

Each time i look its lower.

Morocco , concentrated assets in one country?

Politics?

[plentymorefish] 18/12/2018 08:44

Where's the bottom for this one?

[shakeypremis] 11/12/2018 13:38

To be honest I am also not sure whether the condensate production is extra revenue for SDX or whether it is included in the price they get for gas. I remember PW saying that he thought they would get US$2.85/mscf due to the quality of gas they would produce. Does that 'quality' refer to included condensates or simply the quality of the natural gas produced? I don't know.

[shakeypremis] 11/12/2018 13:21

Darola, it's an increase to the amount of liquids and condensates that SD will produce. Not quite sure how much more it will be but it must be noteworthy.

I can't remember if modifications are being made to handle more gas once more discoveries are made though.

I think SD will generate the following in revenues and profits;

50mmscf/d @ US$2.65/mscf = US$132,000/day gross revenue or about US$45,000,000/year (340 operations per year)

US$45,000,000 x WI (55%) = US$24,800,000/year revenue after WI interest deduction

US24,800,000 x thieving Egyptian Government 'share' (50%) = US$12,400,000/year ECONOMIC INTEREST revenue

So that's just over US$1m extra revenue per month that SD will generate for SDX. Now I realise I haven't included the liquids in this but I seem to remember that the predicted rate of 600 barrels of condensate per day, this would only net SDX around another US$1m in extra profit per year. Now if the number of barrels of condensate goes up SIGNIFICANTLY from 600 per day then this might get very interesting but how much more could it be than 600? Surely no more than even double? We haven't been told yet but I am sure PW would be crowing about it if it was significantly more than the predicted 600. So perhaps with the extra condensate production (whatever that number is) SDX will get roughly another US$12m/year in additional profit from South Disouq.

[darola] 11/12/2018 12:34

An extra 4.6k a day coming online in H1. That’s >$3m a month.

This is a given. It doesn’t need to be discovered, it’s in the ground waiting for us to extract. The reason we have a delay from the expected Q4 2018 is so they can increase the capacity - this is an absolute positive.

[phowdo] 11/12/2018 11:22

The directors here prefer to award themselves options rather than actually risking their own capital. That way they get to enjoy any upside but dont suffer any downside.
Heads they win. Tails you lose.