Sdx Energy Share Discussion Threads

[potential] 29/8/2018 09:25

Been investing for over 15 years and I must say this company as all the hallmarks to deliver and beyond, plus their management is one of the best I've seen for along time.... I'm not selling a single share as sdx will be double of what it is today by year end!!!

[franki8] 29/8/2018 09:22

plus, debt is cheaper than equity - that's finance 101

[matchmade] 29/8/2018 09:21

odvod, SDX hasn't taken a penny from EBRD - they have merely arranged the option of a loan, if needed. Any loan can only be spent in Morocco and management have said they would only call on the funds if unexpected exploration success or lots of new customer signups called for increased production capacity. In the meantime SDX has no debt at all, just lots of patient investors, who have proven willing to support the equity raise (which you criticise - so would debt have been a better way to raise capital?) and is an indication of confidence in the company.

If you really think oil exploration is akin to throwing dice, with zero weighting for human skill and expertise, how can you "expect" 2 or 3 steps in the share price towards 100? Using your analogy, that's like predicting you will get three sixes from three rolls of a dice, and investing to meet this expectation. Simple statistics says you are likely to be disappointed.

[greyingsurfer] 29/8/2018 09:17

also flash with the cash they took out debt from EBRD - I hate debt.

They haven't taken out any debt from EBRD, as far as we know. They have the facility to do so. It gives them flexibility should they need it, for Moroccan capex on pipelines etc.

Peter

[odvod] 29/8/2018 08:35

skill vs luck - dice throwing competition. is the winner lucky or has developed skills ?

many able people have skills and are reading the 2D 3Ds, with COS above 50, even 70 and nothing commercial gets hit ...

trust - unnecessary equity issue imho (friends ??) - one can say prudent too - just imho

also flash with the cash they took out debt from EBRD - I hate debt. But on the other side of the coin this loan is a stamp of approval and a possible exit route for Morocco

[shakeypremis] 29/8/2018 08:25

odvod, it is very hard to read your post but if I understand what you are trying to say, 20 out of 23 is NOT luck.

Also, why do you not trust the management? This is a genuine question? I don't trust/distrust them - like you, I do trust their skill though.

[odvod] 29/8/2018 08:22

bought few yesterday at 57. on fundamentals. they have lucky strike which sometimes happens.

on the chart I expect 2 or 3 "steps" going up towards 100p (look trin chart)

I do not trust the management (I trust their skills - but that is far from enough).

good luck

[shakeypremis] 28/8/2018 16:14

Haider, just because there were only 100k shares traded doesn't mean that there weren't buy orders there in the background. You need to see level 2.

[bountyhunter] 28/8/2018 15:45

lol, I was about to make exactly the same post HD!

Yes Malcy generally is very positive about SDX

[hiddendepths] 28/8/2018 15:41

malcy: My spies tell me that there has been a seller in the market, holding the shares down at the 57p level but once that technical situation has cleared out I expect that this high margin growth company will move significantly higher. There is much to look forward to at SDX.

[robbiekeane] 28/8/2018 15:03

hxxps://audioboom.com/posts/6986806-sdx-energy-sdx-europa-metals-euz-predator-oil-gas-prd-and-alan-green-on-pdz-staf-euz-imcp

PW on audioboom

[haideralifool] 28/8/2018 14:40

Shakey on the 9th August the traded volume was around 100k shares. If someone wanted to get rid of a six-figure number of shares wouldn't that have been difficult?

I've not done any dummy trades to test this, but perhaps others have.

[shakeypremis] 28/8/2018 14:32

HaiderAli, unless you have a monster holding you can pretty much get a quote to sell SDX whenever you want.

[scrutable] 28/8/2018 14:12

Incredible results! Where else can you buy shares of such a strongly growing company yielding approx £36m/pa net cashflow for as litle as £125m cap.

Is this the absolutely cheapest growth available on the LSE? - or anywhere else in the world?.

In the building of assets they surely have another record drilling in six months, 23 gas and oil wells, most with commercially extractable hydrocarbons, - for $45m?

With the share price down 3.5p this morning forgive me for justifying the further investment of all my own free cash in extending my position. I don't think I could do better despite many attractive alternatives in the rest of my portfolio.

[haideralifool] 28/8/2018 14:00

One of the features (dare I say) risk factors with SDX is that is can be thinly traded for many days.

Based on that observation, here's my 2p:

What this means is that when there is a significant news release people who want out have one of the few chances of doing so. If there isn't a barnstorming case to buy, I guess it'll lead to some weakness.

Happy to be corrected on the above.

[tournesol] 28/8/2018 13:12

Small top up by me.

[saucepan] 28/8/2018 12:57

shakeypremis: thanks for your thoughts.

[hiddendepths] 28/8/2018 11:28

I think there was a hefty seller this morning and it was unconnected with the figures.

It looks as though the overhang is being gradually mopped up and when it's gone, quite possibly later today, we could easily be back up to the 60p mark in short order.

[hiddendepths] 28/8/2018 11:28

double post.

[erinvale] 28/8/2018 11:22

Thanks to all for some useful perspective.

[sleveen] 28/8/2018 11:22

shay

I don't disagree with the bull case, perhaps the share price is taking a breather following a steady recent 15% rise?

[shakeypremis] 28/8/2018 10:59

Saucepan, I would say that the share price doesn't really include any valuation at all for upside to come from near term expected production at South Disouq. But that doesn't mean the market isn't selling this off because of that uncertainty. Still it seems irrational.

Sleveen, they just connected 3 extra customers - one being Peugeot - which are expected to add another 1.3mmscf/d demand which will increase production to 6.7mmscf/d from the current 5.3mmscf/d. So they would seem to need an additional 3 similarly sized customers or 1 or two with greater demands and they would then hit the lower end of the 8-10mmscf/d target. The customers will come, I don't doubt it. $10-$12/mscf vs $16-18 for bottled gas. No brainer for a company in Kenitra. This extra 1.3mmscf/d demand will add around $4.5m revenue gross per year or about $3.5m net to SDX (after their 75% WI) with most of that $3.5 being profit. That's at a gas price of $10.5/mscf (which might be on the low side of what they get for these new contracts) and for 340 days production a year.

[saucepan] 28/8/2018 10:46

SDX has still to resolve the price it will be able to charge for gas in Egypt. That continues to add some risk/uncertainty.

[sleveen] 28/8/2018 10:43

erinvale

sp fall might be due to doubts over reaching the 8-10Mscf/d sales target.