Solgold Share Discussion Threads

[zcaprd7] 10/9/2020 12:08

Three month high...

[greenelf] 10/9/2020 12:04

Trades wtf..so lowglitch?

[lowtrawler] 10/9/2020 11:30

Producing the PFS, concluding FNV, dismissing CGP, obtaining clarity on BHPs intentions and further regional exploration results will easily take us to around 40p. If the exploration results are stellar, who knows?Other than the above, it's going to be a long slow climb into DFS, funding, build and production.

[arcadian] 10/9/2020 11:15

They did stress that they were very conservative and that others would not be bound by their constraints.

[mknight] 10/9/2020 10:59

83p from Merrill. 27p seems extremly cheap based on their recommendations.

[lowtrawler] 10/9/2020 10:58

To follow up on my comment regarding CGP wanting ENSA to be sold. A sale also suits Newcrest. I believe they see themselves in a JV providing the mining expertise and taking the lions share of returns.My take on BHP is that they see the potential in our other sites and want to help us develop those rather than taking a quick fix on Alpala. I could see them raising their holding to 29% once the standstill agreement ends which, together with Nick's 20%, would effectively block any other bidders and give BHP an easy platform to acquisition at some point in the future.

[mirabeau] 10/9/2020 10:43

macca

I hope u don't mind but I have posted this Merrill note on the SOLG, LSE site

many, many thanks

M

[maccamcd] 10/9/2020 10:30

Merrill comments

Buy SolGold for geared copper optionality
We launch coverage of SolGold Plc with a Buy recommendation & price objective of GBp83. We view SolGold as a London listed copper/gold exploration & development company. SolGold has no producing assets and its main development project, Alpala, is several years away from production. That said, we think that the group’s multiple prospects and first mover advantage in Ecuador are compelling in a world that is short “copper optionality”. Shares trade on just 0.2x our DCF derived NPV. Our price objective (83p) is set at a large discount to our NPV (0.5x) reflecting financing, execution & dilution risks but still provides >200% potential upside. Note, we assign no value to the group’s many other prospects in Ecuador – an industry bidder might not be so conservative…
SolGold sees itself as an “emerging copper major”…
The Alpala project seems quite “bankable̶1; with infrastructure including power, roads & port already in place. Alpala is just a few hours’ drive along paved roads from Ecuador’s capital, Quito. Low cost (USc5-8/kWh) power is readily available. A rail / road corridor passes close by the site giving access to a sea port. Ecuador has had some challenging government policies in recent decades but of late, the investment climate seems to have turned more positive. SolGold presents to the market as if it plans to build the $2.7 bn Alpala project itself and then proceed with several other projects in Ecuador.
… but will it actually build any mines?
That said, for a c. $700 mn company, raising $2.7 bn in capital to fund Alpala without additional equity seems challenging to us. We do note that BHP & Newcrest each own c. 13.6% of SolGold. BHP’s (relatively) new CEO, Mike Henry, has clearly indicated his desire to add optionality in “future facing commodities” including copper, nickel & potash. BHP is subject to a standstill agreement until October this year. That said, interestingly, SolGold recently announced a $100 mn fund raising by selling a 1% royalty on Alpala to Franco Nevada. The group is exploring other non-equity financing options.

[lefrene] 10/9/2020 10:14

CGP situation seems to be down to pique and perhaps panic on the part of the head honcho. I guess he never imagined Cascabel would be so big or get to the point of being mined. He now resorts to the Barnier book of dirty tricks to cover his own backside and attempt to get some sort of pay off.

LT, I think your idea is a good one.

[lowtrawler] 10/9/2020 10:10

Trouble is, I think Nick plays with a straight bat and so is more likely to just ignore those games and sign FNV once ready.

[lowtrawler] 10/9/2020 10:08

Rp, conspiracy theories sometimes have an element of truth. If I were Nick, I'd call their bluff by delaying the FNV completion until the general meeting and then get the shareholders to vote it through. It would leave CGP and Newcrest looking mighty stupid.

[rougepierre] 10/9/2020 09:56

Surely Slide 19 is cast iron confirmation that the deal will be completed...

Plus this from Eliza last night....

"Let's see where we get to once the FNV financing and the PFS are completed!"

[lowtrawler] 10/9/2020 09:55

I don't think anyone here is part of the inner sanctum!Essentially, CGP don't want SOLG to establish funding that will allow them to progress to production. They want ENSA to be sold. If it goes to production, CGP will need to find over $300m as their share of build costs. They have virtually no chance of doing this and so will be forced to give up their 15% share to SOLG for peanuts leaving them as a worthless shell.

[mirabeau] 10/9/2020 09:45

Lowt

Oh, I see. I'm not privy to this info but thanks for this...it's fascinating to watch the machinations and movements of those who inhabit the inner sanctum

cheers fella

[lowtrawler] 10/9/2020 09:43

Mb, I don't think anyone doubts FNVs commitment. There are a number of conspiracy theories as to why SOLG may wish to delay the deal. One of those is that CGP have threatened our directors with personal legal action should they sign the deal prior to their proposed requisitioned meeting.

[lefrene] 10/9/2020 09:39

LT, I had the same notion :¬) FNV's involvement is very much a seal of approval, it makes Solg kosher, and the signing off will imv be the starting pistol for things to start to happen after so many years.

[lowtrawler] 10/9/2020 09:36

Stop filleting me or I'll get alarmed.

[mirabeau] 10/9/2020 09:36

Franco would hardly hold a public presentation detailing Cascabel in glowing terms if they did not intend to finalise the royalty deal

[lowtrawler] 10/9/2020 09:35

If I was being cynical, I might think the completed FNV deal will get an RNS later today allowing the new BoA investors to be immediately in profit.

[plentymorefish] 10/9/2020 09:33

Let's hope the market doesn't become alarmed at the lack of signing off of the FNV.......

[lowtrawler] 10/9/2020 09:16

BC, SOLG have been saying very soon for FNV since early July. Today is their last day for signature before entering a 4 month extension on the bridging loan. I can recall reading that the 4 month extension requires SOLG to issue FNV with warrants but I haven't been able to track down where I read that, can anyone help?

[boris cobaka] 10/9/2020 09:09

Good volume indeed. On the strength of the BOA note. I do think there would be a significant boost once the final fnv facility agreed. It possible some have already bought in on the likelihood it'll be signed off fairly soon.

[arcadian] 10/9/2020 09:02

Pob

We do more than acknowledge you.

We benefit from your diligence and selflessness in making your findings known to the rest of us and we are all very grateful for your information/news mining efforts
even if it means that you lose sleep at times while we whimps are abed.

[mirabeau] 10/9/2020 08:56

Yes, Schlemiel is my LSE moniker.

A French aristocrat with an idiotic bent

[pob69] 10/9/2020 08:54

Thank you for the name check concerning the above link on LSE BB schlemiel (Mirabeau I think here - apologies if not?). It is nice to be acknowledged!