Solgold Share Discussion Threads

[zcaprd7] 08/6/2020 15:35

Do any of the shareholders have directors on the board? Wouldn't they be totally aware of this placing activity (if not supportive)?

[mknight] 08/6/2020 15:11

Back in with 300k at 21.00

Just a gamble on NM keeping his word for once however unlikely that might be .

And it being good news .

Plus 21p is not expensive .

[lefrene] 08/6/2020 12:30

Your arguments are clearly put Lowtrawler, there are many risks to take account of.

Before October 17th, we need to see the PFS, and confirmation of development finance, and by then some drill news should have come in. The government wants mining, copper and gold are wanted, and the thing is too big to ignore.

NMs' stake says he will fight to get a fair price in the event of an attempted low ball offer.

[goldrush] 08/6/2020 12:07

Lowtrawler

Well explained and fair post.

What we can be sure of is there is nothing in the price for good drill results on say the 4 targets that they want to get drilled right away. Don't need to be spectacular but decent will help the share price.

There is definitely no takeover premium in the price at the moment.As I said over the weekend holders of share options will not make much(other than Ingo Hofmaier with 25p options) if the takeout price is 65/70p....that's a major problem for NM.

A combination of BHP/Newcrest/CGP can get there with a little purchase in the markets....BHP and Newcrest are not the type to sit around with a 15% shareholding and be content with their lot......Of course BHP cannot openly make a bid at this time till 17th October but if Newcrest openly makes a move then BHP can get into the fray....

Interesting times as the chances of a takeover have materially increased.....IMHO

[lowtrawler] 08/6/2020 11:41

Lefrene, you say that the share price in no way reflects the real value here. Whilst myself and other shareholders would likely agree with you, the reality is that we don't have large numbers of buyers swooping in to scoop up shares and so the market believes the current price to be fair.

A lot depends on your assessment of risk. I have previously posted that I believe Cascabel has a value of around 80p to current shareholders, before risk is taken into account. My required discount for the risks being taken is 50% and so I believe Cascabel is currently worth 40p to me. These values have dropped around 7% due to the share dilution but are broadly accurate.

Other investors may take a different view on the risks and need an 80% discount which would set a price of 16p for Cascabel. I reckon the other sites are currently thrown in for only a few pennies and so it is roughly where the current price is pitched.

The risks are a combination of a number of things including, but not limited to:

1. Risk of failing to finance Cascabel (effected by relationships with major shareholders, trust in the management team, prospects for commodities etc.)
2. Political risk (Ecuador instability, tax rates, licenses etc.)
3. Discovery risk (major geological fault reducing resources etc.)
4. Execution risk (mine build taking longer, costing more etc.)
5. External risks (Covid-19; wars etc.)

The haphazard equity raise has undoubtedly increased peoples perception of the financing risk. If we can bring BHP back on board, that perception will improve. However, we are still investing in a risky venture.

In my view, an 80% discount for risk is too high and the other sites are worth more than a few pennies. It is why I am still happy to invest here for the long-term. As we progress Cascabel towards delivery, some of the risks will reduce and so the price will improve.

However, we need to get some discoveries at our other sites to really get the price up. Those discoveries require investment and so there will be more financing rounds before Cascabel starts to help with funding. If those financing rounds are equity, it will reduce the value of Cascabel to existing investors and so the price will fall until a discovery is made.

As investors, we need to assess what we believe the risk discount needs to be and we also need to ensure our investment does not exceed our risk appetite. In my case, I believe a smaller risk discount is appropriate but I am already holding at a level which matches my risk appetite and so will not be buying more.

[mam fach] 08/6/2020 11:09

Sea of red and price holding.
Very strange.

[lowtrawler] 08/6/2020 10:36

The limit is 29.9% in the UK before anyone acting in concert has to make an official bid. The reality is, once out of purdah, anyone can launch a bid at any level of holding. I don't believe there is any reason SOLG would wish to prevent BHP or Newcrest subscribing for more shares.

[lefrene] 08/6/2020 10:24

LT I thought that was the critical level to keep BHP/Newcrest from combining to force a takeover? ie 31%, but I could be wrong. The share price in now ay reflects the real value here, it's plain that efforts are being made to grab the prize on the cheap, so whatever NMs' tactics are, they're aimed at not being robbed by the big hitters.

[lowtrawler] 08/6/2020 10:13

My suspicion is that both BHP and Newcrest were given the opportunity to participate following the issue by buying additional shares to prevent their dilution. Newcrest weren't interested.If this is the case, Newcrest don't have much to complain about and are just having a tantrum. We should find out if my suspicions are correct later today.

[lowtrawler] 08/6/2020 09:57

Why 15.2%?

[lefrene] 08/6/2020 09:54

zcaprd7, there is of course the need to keep the holdings of both below 15.2% so that will have been a factor, but perhaps bonds could have been issued? but it seems that he didn't talk to them. They must have known NM would need money to keep drilling. It's all power games and politics, it seems NM has brought in new investors wanting a stake without moving the price up. Well they've achieved that!

[lowtrawler] 08/6/2020 09:48

Newcrest definitely declined to participate and are playing the aggrieved card. BHP also declined the main issue but have otherwise remained silent. Interestingly, the extra 1%, would be almost exactly the right amount to prevent BHP's interest from being diluted.

[greenelf] 08/6/2020 09:46

No balls. Just a big mouth :)Busted!

[nas_daq] 08/6/2020 09:43

Don't need to gamble on a miner in one of the most unsettled political jurisdictions in the world, I leave it to experts...you might be better off doing the same.....might save you some house money........

[nas_daq] 08/6/2020 09:40

Touch angry are we......amazing how bitter the rampers are when they get it wrong.90% of pi's lose money, looks like the pi's on here are more successful than the average ....well done rampers.......Oooooh that naughty liar NM and Ingo in the webinars saying every one is throwing money at us....I'm sure they are at 12 percent interest ......

[zcaprd7] 08/6/2020 09:40

Did he cut them out, or did they decline to be involved?

[lefrene] 08/6/2020 09:36

So why did NM cut BHP/Newcrest out of the capital raise? He must have a reason, why upset your two biggest holders unless you have some other plan. I doubt we will see an RNS until we have some drill news to report.

[mam fach] 08/6/2020 09:27

Do we think RNS would be announced to coincide with opening in Canada?

[rougepierre] 08/6/2020 08:57

He's filtered...don't say he's playing that sad old trope of 'I only invest in funds....again...?

Don't waste your time asking him why hes still here...hes just a sad old bitter troll...

Just filter him...

[greenelf] 08/6/2020 08:52

That is rich coming from you,. "Mr I only invest in funds" cause you are shiitt scared and have no balls to do it yourself. How is your "friend" doing lol haha

[nas_daq] 08/6/2020 08:41

Lol....sudden funding....it was obvious in March they were desperate.... just the rampers on here prefer to fantasise about takeovers and billions of pounds of funding Anyway mkrampynight which hindsight trades are you going to announce today for your fantasy profit.....

[lowtrawler] 08/6/2020 08:39

Lets face it, the additional raise they have been negotiating over the weekend only represents around 1% of the share capital. It's unlikely to be a significant new name at that sort of level although I'm hoping it might be BHP. The issue which will be preying on minds and the share price for the next few weeks / months will be the apparent rift between SOLG and their 2 main shareholders. If BHP are taking up the additional 1%, it would immediately quash the problem.

[lefrene] 08/6/2020 08:10

Whatever it might be it's being shy this am RH.

[robert heenan] 07/6/2020 23:27

I actually think it must be something really huge and like a major surprise package in tomorrow mornings RNS. If it wasn't that important then they could have just mentioned it in the RNS they released on Friday morning. The fact the share price dropped by 10% with NM wanting to make us wait over the weekend to announce this mysterious investor on Monday morning suggests something really big.... Perhaps a major billionaire financier? Barrick?

[mknight] 07/6/2020 22:49

Pmount

Dont count your chickens just yet . Must have been a reason for the sudden funding no doubt we will find out soon .