Solgold Share Discussion Threads

[dozyduck] 25/4/2020 11:08

Phat - looks like you're a broker !
Just remember SXX. And I've been doing project finance and valuation for longer than most broker analysts. Its been explained on here why NPV based share price 'targets' are bogus and always wrong. Most mining analysts are geologists or miners. Not necessarily good financial analysts. They all follow each other's NPV based methodology. (The only research that is closer to reality is Edisons who look at NPV's from the shareholders' point of view, not the company's - a different measure) The miners publish NPV's because they know its the way brokers think - hoping they'll puff their shares higher than warranted. And anyway, the majority are usually wrong in this life ! - because they dare not veer from their peers' way of thinking. Just to be boring, I remember in the '90's when brokers' earnings forecasts started to be published and collated. Before, their forecasts were always all over the place. Afterwards they all began to converge towards a 'concensus'. Why do you think that was ?

[ntbb] 25/4/2020 11:07

Fireworks on Monday

[ntbb] 25/4/2020 11:06

"Companies don’t usually announce the appointment of advisors. The press picked it up and we made a statement which you can review here: hxxps://www.redcloudfs.com/rcwebinar-solg/   

 

Happy to confirm that we appointed Citi to help us with a couple of strategic matters related to M&A and financing. They were appointed after we ran a beauty parade including several banks, and we might even add further advisors to our efforts to increase shareholder value via a competitive bidding process.

 

[ntbb] 25/4/2020 11:05

I might as well post it

[mam fach] 25/4/2020 10:29

Let's all calm down and wait to see what Monday brings.
Some been holding since 46p to get their investment to break even.
It will happen soon.Something is happening behind the scenes..
I'm holding for £££'s.
Stay safe. Stay home.
Genuinely GLA.

[greenelf] 25/4/2020 10:22

Its all "academic" until you or a family member gets it (hopefully not) and dies.

[mknight] 25/4/2020 10:17

Nas daq

Your new here .

Do you own any shares in Solg ..whats your opinion of the company..

[phattrader1] 25/4/2020 10:16

DozyDuck - the average of 7 broker notes post PEA have an 82p average for a 12 month price target (Nov 19 to Nov 20). Are we all wrong?

The highest being 116p - coincidentally the same company where Ingo Hafmaier works and is currently working on our funding 😉 if he’s basing our funding off a 116p valuation, watch this space!

[nas_daq] 25/4/2020 10:13

Try telling that to Boris Johnson

[lefrene] 25/4/2020 10:10

There's not an unprecedented debt bubble because of the corona-virus, there's an unprecedented debt bubble because of the behaviour of the Bank's who apparently have a $680 trillion derivatives problem. The number is so big that it's impossible to imagine what that would look like in dollar bills. The virus is providing a smoke screen and excuse for the devastation caused by these criminally reckless Banks and the equally criminal failure of oversight by the Federal Bank, but of course that FED Bank is actually owned by the architects of the mess.
One notices many claims that 'virus victims' are mainly old people with existing serious health problems, and that anyone who dies with a trace of this virus is logged down a having died of it! Historians 50 years hence will wonder how all the people could be fooled for such a long time. (yes the virus is real, but it would seem pretty much the same as other nasty flu epidemics that go unmentioned, such as the one in early 2017)

As for Solg it's a vast safe containing precious and industrial metals on a huge scale, they are wanted because of the sheer decades long scale of extraction, the highly economic grades of the ores, and the highly favourable infrastructure of power and roads/rail and convenient port. It probably doesn't get much better for things of this scale. So it's all about the price, who really wants to secure this 50+ years gem of a cash cow, what are they willing to pay knowing that Alpalla will pay for itself in under 4 years!

[nas_daq] 25/4/2020 10:02

DDYour posts are much more enlightening than the silly predictions, by some, of 40p next month

[mknight] 25/4/2020 09:58

Loganair

Is comex market not a price for recieving Gold ?

Currently 1735 .

[mknight] 25/4/2020 09:47

DD

Ok but we are valued at 400 million not over a billion . 40p would take us to a 800 million valuation which would be in line with what you said its worth at the moment unless copper rises above 3.30 really quickly which it will not short term .

If i undersrood you correctly a couple of days back . The problem for shareholders is in your opinión when it goes above 40p .

[dozyduck] 25/4/2020 09:25

The smelter offtakers are not 'valuing' Alpala or its NPV. It doesn't concern them. They are financing just a very small proportion of the expected capex, and getting first call on a small proportion of its production. ie taking very little risk. (And of course we don't know their terms. NM wouldn't tell us if they are onerous. All he's said is they are 'better' than assumed in the PEA. In practice such financing is always at a cost which detracts from the project's value. So the bigger such financing, the bigger the cost)
And Seeking Alpha's understanding of NPVs is simplistic. The NPV attaches to the 'project'. NOT to the company owning it. (first usual investor mistake). And the discount rate used makes no difference to the real life cash flow - which is what financiers are concerned with. Its merely an elastic band rule of thumb used to compare projects - not to value them. Investors still haven't taken on board the SXX fiasco where dodgy brokers used 'NPV's to justify a value four times what institutions would pay. Investor mistake no 2 is to fail to note the effect of a project life. A long life will inflate the NPV but institutions won't pay for any longer than 8-10 years ahead. Aplala's is inflated by the 55 year life ! For its first ten years, you can halve the NPV ! (
Investor mistake no 3 is to forget that the ONLY key measure determining financeability is the IRR (the return on investment.) Alpala's at around 25% isn't particularly compelling and at current low copper prices will be below what is normally acceptable. Its all such factors that make speculation re takeovers and prices unrealistic.

[loganair] 25/4/2020 08:41

As investors seek safe haven assets during this crisis, analysts are getting more bullish on gold, projecting its price to surge. Claudio Grass, a Switzerland-based precious metals adviser, talks about gold’s true value.

According to Grass, the question is not if gold is going higher, “it’s always the paper price of currency that is fluctuating its prices.”

He said: “An ounce of gold is always an ounce of gold. So, basically, gold is not going higher in price.” And, if you really want to buy physical gold then you’ll have to pay much more than the paper price, the analyst added.

Grass pointed out that physical gold and the paper price of gold are two different things. “I truly believe that gold can go higher but the paper price of gold could go down to zero because it is a paper security, it’s debt security, it’s just a promise.” If you buy physical gold, that’s completely different, it’s an ownership, you own an asset, real goods, he explained.

At the moment there’s an unprecedented debt bubble because of the coronavirus pandemic, and all financial markets are completely overvalued, Grass said. Talking about the stock market, he noted that we haven’t yet seen all the bankruptcies, all the unemployment rates. “People are still paralyzed and in fear because of coronavirus… and the financial panic of the stock market is still coming.”

The price of gold is rising because the purchasing power of the US dollar and other currencies, like the euro, are depreciating. “Whenever you’re printing, you’re debasing the currency.”

Grass explained that when you buy something, you have to buy when things are cheap, like physical gold “which is money, everything else is credit.”

He continued: “So, gold is cheap, and it’s physical, and it’s outside the banking system, and it’s a perfect hedge against all the risks in the current financial system.”

Physical gold will save those who keep it, as long as governments don’t confiscate it, according to Grass.

[lowtrawler] 25/4/2020 08:37

Mk, I'm not going to make any predictions about weekly prices. The speed of price movement is quite unpredictable and is seldom linear. I have explained my thoughts on fair valuation of SOLG previously and, barring a takeover offer or 2ñd Alpala, that is up to 45p. Having broken through resistance, we should reach 30p quite easily and we are likely to overshoot, at least for a short period. In my view, we will likely stall below 35p.I think it unlikely we will get to the full 45p fair valuation for some time as world markets remain depressed. Interestingly, DD, phat and myself all have pretty consistent numbers on what a takeover value might be: from 50p - 120p. A takeover remains the most likely route for extracting higher value, earlier. If we can ramp up drilling at our other prospects, we may be able to announce another Alpala in a few months time! That would really put the cat among the pigeons.

[mknight] 25/4/2020 07:59

Good morning .

I believe the shareprice will be 30p next week and 40p the week after .

I get this conclusion thanks to a chat with DD where he stated that solgold could not rise above the current price because 90 percent of the shares were already spoken for leaving only 200 million shares to be bought or sold .i informed him if they could drop from 45p to 10 then they could go back as well .

Phattrader1 confirmed this and showed us his chart . As you can see we are at the
Position where the institutions have started to buy in .

200 millon shares ...available

40% of PI,s wont sell 80.million

So that leaves 120 million shares only
For institutional buyers . But of course there will be new buyers attracted by the rising shares and some shareholders will add to their holdings .

Each day we hit 10 million shares the noose tightens and less shares will be avaiable the next day . Over 20 days we would have traded 200 million shares . And the shares will be tightly held by 98 percent .

Institutions will not pay more than fair value . We know that will be betwéen 40/60p but because of the lack of shares the rise will be really quick .

All imho .

And yes i am changing my 30p end of May call to 40p . Many will think i am crazy to say the share will double in 2 WEEKS. .

Many thought i was crazy buying every day from 16p downwards to 10.02p and then buying upwards to 22.45 yesterday .

Lets face it i cannot be right again can i .😏😏😏

[phattrader1] 25/4/2020 05:39

I found this very useful in a crash course for valuations of companies like SOLG.

The Mine Financing section and Valuation section are of particular interest.



What stood out to me is during PFS and DFS stage the company should be valued at 15-25% of NPV of the project. So at an NPV of £6bn (realistic given current gold prices) somewhere between 41-68p. THIS IS BEFORE ANY FINANCING HAS BEEN AGREED FOR MINE CONSTRUCTION.

I am beginning to the game here: once Finance is in place, the value should be 40-50% of NPV which will be based on the metrics of the valuation proposed during the financing agreement stage. If one of the smelters values the project at “materially above $6.3bn using a 6% discount rate and current gold prices” we are at £7.5bn-£8bn then the share price should be 30-40% of NPV which would be around £1.

And that is what NM is trying to do - he’s trying his best to raise the share price to Fair Value so the big miners don’t buy us out on the cheap.

If we re-rate to 60-80p then takeover happens at a higher price. The longer they wait, the higher the takeover price goes.

Quick solution: nip it in the bud and take us over for £1 today 🤣

[markth126] 24/4/2020 22:39

Very happy to be here still , long term holder just wish had bottle to fill up at 10p but rest of portfolio was way down to so had no cash. Still my few should pay handsomely and make up for selling out a shed load on ggp at 2.5p ( now 8.85p!)ARS done well today too me and mr piggy will be happy this Friday!!!

[greenelf] 24/4/2020 22:17

Excellent! Will build the suspense :)

[ntbb] 24/4/2020 22:11

I think I got more.then iv asked for!! Il post it Sunday

[lowtrawler] 24/4/2020 21:05

The breakout did not happen as a result of the offtake arrangement. That was known days ago. We have a complete reassessment on the prospects for SOLG. About time too.

[rougepierre] 24/4/2020 18:56

Apart from the things we already know and the masses of really good stuff in the Webinar, here was the key point for me in the Presentation...

"SolGold has received 10 qualifying bids for the off-take of copper-gold-silver concentrate from Alpala.

This points to a strong outcome in the generation of a near term development funding package."

Get in!!!!

[mknight] 24/4/2020 18:45

Ntbb


They probably wont RNS it . Most people that follow SOLG know about it .

[pob69] 24/4/2020 18:44

Really interesting webinar including @discoveries Willem Middelkoop CEO Commodities Discovery Fund. He clearly remains strong and heavily invested as it is great to hear him say if you want to play Tier 1 copper discovery then you "won't go wrong with Solgold" $SOLG $SOLG.L $CGP #cascabel #ecuador