Solgold Share Discussion Threads

[lurker5] 16/7/2024 12:22

swan. Only goes to show how elastic all these NPV's are, with start dates, discount rates, all over the place.

[davethehorse] 16/7/2024 12:15

Reds dumping the lot!!

[swanvesta] 16/7/2024 11:13

Lurker, need to extend the sensitivity chart to > 40% for gold! Re FNV/OR's IRR you need to account for development time (4 years) as they will be paying out years ahead of production start. And also I believe the full amount is $750m, with $100m starting to be paid now, minimum 2 years ahead of even construction start?

I have IRR pretty much bang on 9% at $2400 gold with $750m going out in year 0 and production starting 4 years later. In reality $100m goes out in year -1 and -2 and $650m is probably spread through those 4 years. And there may be considerable ramp up time to full production on such a large project.

[r88ave] 16/7/2024 11:01

Topped with some more at 10.2 bound to be consolidation today

[davethehorse] 16/7/2024 11:01

Reds sold out or is in the process....while it's above 10p

[original fastjet] 16/7/2024 10:59

Looks like King quady was right about mining ......
Sp continues to drop as red stops ramping lol

[davethehorse] 16/7/2024 10:52

The rest hold the baby....

[davethehorse] 16/7/2024 10:51

He's sold out for sure the ramping tw*t

[original fastjet] 16/7/2024 10:45

Heartbreaking to see this share price on the decline yet again.
After yesterday's news I fear red must of sold his 2.8ml but I'm sure he will let you know later when this slumps 🤔🤔📉📉

[davethehorse] 16/7/2024 10:43

Typical sell on the news company

[davethehorse] 16/7/2024 09:59

You were saying....traders in control here....

[lurker5] 16/7/2024 09:54

Swan. I was going by the sensitivity chart in the PFS report page 313.
I make FNV's NPV8 on the revenue taken from Solg from production start to be $800m at $1,750/oz. So doesn't look startling v the $650m it will be shelling out. However we don't know what discount rate it wants (to cover its own cost of capital)which if 5% makes its NPV nearly $1,000m. I also make its irr on the $650m capex as 11% - which seems reasonable fr a long term not very risky investment calculated on only $1,750/oz. At $2,400/oz I make its irr to be 17% which would have Shylock jumping for joy.

FNV's priority is to keep its streaming revenues going, which is why probably Solg had a bit more bargaining power than might have been thought.

[hazl] 16/7/2024 09:13

That's the ticket!
Quality will out as they say.

[louie2010] 16/7/2024 08:56

You are the wrong way clown. I suggest jump on horse and point it right way and go jump back in hole you came out of . Dave the horse clown.

[davethehorse] 16/7/2024 08:43

Going the wrong way

[louie2010] 16/7/2024 06:30

Gold spot on the march again .Soon will be 3000 forecast for year end .

[swanvesta] 16/7/2024 00:06

Lurker, if you allow for the 4 year development period then NPV8 @ $1750/oz is under $600m. So, since they'll be shelling out $650m up front, on top of the $100m paid out a year or two earlier, then really Franco et al would be making a loss on those terms. So it seems to me they must be using current gold price to make their IRR (and SOLG's cost of capital) something like the 9% quoted.

BTW, I think you're being too conservative with your 25% uplift for commodity prices. The boost in revenue at current vs assumed prices would be around $250-300m pa, on average annual production over the 28 years. That's after deducting the gold stream. Assuming costs remain as they are in the recently revised PFS then NPV8 should be up about $3bn before tax, $1.8bn after tax. That's a >50% increase to $5bn after tax.

[hazl] 15/7/2024 22:40

Original fast jet.....I always do and you appeared to too.
Thank you for the change of sentiment.

[mknight] 15/7/2024 20:55

How many would like to see Blanco y Nieves [Florida } drilled ?

[havinthelasttoast] 15/7/2024 20:05

First 700 oz 20 percent then reduce to 12 percent for life of mine. This funding will go along with bank funding and we will likely end up with no further dilution apart from director awards.

Considering this is 18 percent of the tenement and the NPV is on a fraction it takes a seriously hurt ex shareholder to see anything like today other that long term extremely positive.

The difference between me and the negative ex shareholders is I knew and stated here it’s a 7 year investment and the risk reward was correct. You mugs alll were buying at 30p and some of the negative mugs here also bought GGP for 20p.

You are all broke mugs and not a brain between you all , bull and bears. What a set of plonkers :)

[lurker5] 15/7/2024 20:01

Loss of gold revenue over 28 yr life of mine is $1.515bn (at $1,750/oz gold) . its NPV (same 8% discount rate as PFS) is $800m. So a net loss to NPV of $150m - which isn't bad at all ! Assuming rest of $1.55bn funding on similar terms, Cascabel's fully funded NPV is $2.9bn vs the $3.3bn unfunded. Better than I would have thought. Thats at conservative gold and copper prices, so overall looking good. But pace Kefi Gold and Copper, the market won't take notice until much nearer production. Or maybe it will !
PS. On the 1/3rd NPV that most miners nearing production have been in the past thats 32p per share fair value. But on copper and gold 25% higher than PFS assumed (as they are roughly today) the NPV8 is also 25% higher. So make that 40p. The institutions won't pay more than that, but enthusiastc pi's probably will.