Soco Share Discussion Threads

[nigelpm] 20/2/2018 14:12

Little flurry of trading activity - I'd be expecting to hear something relatively soon in terms of whether the board wish to pursue one/several of the opportunities they are considering. Assuming there have been no insider leaks (as would appear to be the case) one could expect some quite dramatic trading if/when a statement is released.

[investopia] 20/2/2018 10:23

Yes, the valuation argument keeps investors in this one, I guess, tradingplaces85.

However, there's one hell of a downtrend in the share price established here and I find that my constitution can't take this kind of contrarian approach to fighting the market -- ages me terribly

[tradingplaces85] 17/2/2018 08:57

I'm new to trading and trying to get my head around this stock. Can someone please explain how this company is worth less than half of its current equity. If it sold off it's assets and paid its debt then that's worth more than 331m. How does that work. Appreciate any replies?? Regards.

[tradingplaces85] 17/2/2018 08:53

I'm new to trading and trying to get my head around this stock. Can someone please explain how this company is worth less than half of its current equity. If it sold off it's assets and paid its debt then that's worth more than 331m. How does that work. Appreciate any replies?? Regards.

[tradingplaces85] 17/2/2018 01:30

I'm new to trading and trying to get my head around this stock. Can someone please explain how this company is worth less than half of its current equity. If it sold off it's assets and paid its debt then that's worth more than 331m. How does that work. Appreciate any replies?? Regards.

[emptyend] 16/2/2018 16:38

For anyone with an interest in per bbl valuation and time on their hands:https://www.stockopedia.com/content/valuation-sentiment-and-sp-direction-29921/?page=59

[nigelpm] 16/2/2018 16:27

I filtered him I'm afraid - ;-)

[emptyend] 16/2/2018 16:23

Perhaps someone would like to explain depletion charge accounting to Kev, since he seems to like to double-count things.....?

[kev0856153] 16/2/2018 16:17

At $70 oil then I think Soco are making about 10$ per barrel if you take into account the capital expenditure which is an ever present and is forecast to go up in 2018 to $40M despite nothing being spent in Africa.
Empty's estimate of $20 per 2P barrel is from someone who has lost all objectivity.

[nigelpm] 16/2/2018 16:08

Yup, filtered immediately - almost as bad as our in-house folk as well.

[redhill9] 16/2/2018 15:47

This poster has been spamming all over ADVFN and elsewhere - irritating nuisance, filtered.

[uen_investor2] 16/2/2018 13:58

Dont miss UEN. Up again today and no more than 10,000 shares avaliable online.. They are already asking the full amount again to be filled

At 13m quid its hard to see a downside.

3 - 4 million shares available to the market. This on its own means there is very little available for large chunks. No warrants, no dilution

This will keep rising,

Here is why.

This ticks every box:
Excellent revenue.
Rejected takeover at 250p per share
Debt wiped shortly
Dividend. (5p per share paid in November)
Proved reserves.
2200 bopd production.
Bod have plenty of skin in the game.
Cpr due.
Drilling underway on high cos prospect.
Very small free float of shares.
Few shares in issue.
Well underpinned at a mcap far exceeding what we're currently at.
Exponential upside.
Not on the radar....YET!
Fabulous entry point
Own their own refinery - 30 million US conservative valuation on its own
UEN oil sold at a PREMIUM to brent


Worth reading this over and over again..

hxxp://www.uralsenergy.com/archive/presentations/Urals_Inv_Presentation_20_11_2017.pdf?v=231117

Urals remains one of the highest ranked E&P companies (4th) on the AIM market by 2P Reserves
Russian 2P Reserves volumes dominate the AIM E&P sector and continue to trade at a significant discount
to the market average
Urals generates more operating cash flow per barrel produced than its AIM listed peers
Urals 2P Reserves trade at a discount to the market and its regional Russian and FSU peer groups
Urals have continued to outperform its Russian peer group during 2017

[pumph] 16/2/2018 13:39

I see that Kuwait Energy have made a (small) discovery in Egypt and announced a farm out in Iraq to Dragon in the last few days. Not sure if there's a real prospect or not of the merger going ahead, but there are at least signs of life with them, something that doesn't always seem to be the case with Soco.

[serratia] 15/2/2018 21:22

Thank you ee/gs for your thoughts.

[greyingsurfer] 15/2/2018 09:05

Of course, for gas the variability in valuation is even more marked than for oil.

Oil can be shipped to most places, so there are clear international benchmarks for what you pay. Gas is mostly used domestically, or locally - so in places with lots of gas but a relatively undeveloped energy market the price is going to be a lot lower than elsewhere (something EE knows a bit about). Things like LNG obviously are developing and creating a more international market, but the capital costs of the plants are huge, so only make sense for large fields - on or near the sea.

You also don't mention state of development of the field in your question - a developed, well understood field is worth much more than an appraised but undeveloped one.

[emptyend] 14/2/2018 19:24

There is no general figure, mainly because PSA terms vary between basins and countries, which affects economic values. Obviously gas and oil are fundamentally different in terms of value per boe.In the case of the Cuu Long basin, IIRC the most recent deal was Perenco's at c. $25/28 per bbl 2P. Prior deals in a $75 world were c.$23/25. I'd guess current level would be c. $20. Cuu Long barrels are relatively valuable, so barrels will be cheaper in eg the North Sea.FWIW. Ultimately values will just depend on what a buyer will pay.

[serratia] 14/2/2018 19:07

O/T,

As this is a site with a few experienced people I'd like to ask a general question. I know there are variables such as location, land/deep water, local contract terms, route to market, gas quality etc.
Does anyone have a value for 2P gas reserves, any takeovers that imply a figure/range ?

[buywell3] 14/2/2018 18:07

The USA has upped Shale OIL production with a vengeance

So much so that in 2019 the USA is going to become the BIGGEST OIL producer in the world and overtake Saudi and Russia

This is going to continue right through to 2025

There will be no OIL shortage as a result

[emptyend] 14/2/2018 11:25

Perhaps more of SOCO's actual value at this point consists of known unknowns than at any point in its history. And then there are the unknown unknowns......which may also be substantial, depending on merger/deal terms.I don't pretend these is easy to value - but I am certain that the market is at least 30% wrong with the shares at 90p.

[joestalin] 14/2/2018 11:23

A 6p dividend on a share price of under £1 is not bad, surely?

[stepone68] 14/2/2018 11:03

Hi Stemis,

Can't disagree with much of that - the current valuation, based on 'known knowns' is about right. I've been holding on here waiting for production increases, license extensions, and subsequent re-writing-on of reserves. If those happen then we could double, or more. If not, I'll collect about a quids worth of dividends over the next 12 years I would guess.

As Johnny Rotten used to sing 'I could be right I could be wrong'....

StepOne

[emptyend] 13/2/2018 21:21

Yes interesting. The only point that is relevant here, though, is the Warren Buffet, who would buy Berkshire stock if it was cheap enough against net assets (1.2x book or less in that case....which very rarely occurs). It is similar here, where buybacks have been done only rarely at a big discount to asset value (albeit, of course, that "value" is a more nebulous concept unconnected to book).IMO SIA would have been buying back anywhere under 120p if they could.

[fangorn2] 13/2/2018 19:46

Interesting article - In case people haven't read it.
Open it "incognito" from google search for

Lex in Depth: the case against share buybacks