Soco Share Discussion Threads

[richalert] 26/1/2018 09:36

Peter.

Thanks for pointing out correction, I agree it was not insignificant, The price was fluctuating around 160-170 for quite sometime. I was attributing the drop more to the falling price of oil than to the reserves downgrade.

Still trying to understand why we are at the price we are today though. Is it potential earnings?

[emptyend] 26/1/2018 09:30

Peter/Rich,I've also been puzzled about the disconnect with the oil price over the last six months and have made various investigations at intervals. I think it is very largely down to the fact that the market knows there are corporate deals planned but they have no idea as yet what they are (even the KE leak could prove totally misleading!). You'll recall that the "deals" strategy goes back to at least this time last year.....and that the Mike/Jann team loaded up with shares at 150/160p (check Mike's before and after holdings - and Jann's stake)....and have continued to be part-paid in shares. Then the company gave an outline of the strategy at the AGM (pointing to a series of deals). IMO throughout the period since then, they will have considered themselves to be in a closed period.....which means there can be no proactive marketing or roadshows at all and that all announcements are de minimus.So if anyone (incl analysts) enquired, they would get zero visibility on the forward plan. Once the first deal can be announced, the company can then "cleanse" all the insiders so that they can talk to the market and deal themselves. So IMO we have a major lag to the oil price and the transformative impact of a first deal that will both hit the market at the same time - so I think there should be a 20-30% step change in the share price within a few weeks of the "deal RNS". But we still don't know either when or what that will be. Or how it will be done....which is also a factor that deters for now. I don't see an equity dilution though.....I'd be thinking a development deal that could be largely bank financed (but thats just a guess, of course).

[greyingsurfer] 26/1/2018 09:10

Or has there been a downward correction on the value of Soco, and if so why. We know about reduction in reserves previously and that did not seem to have a marked affect.

I'm not sure what you mean by this?

On Mar 11th 2015 Soco closed at 242p. On Mar 12th 2015 it closed at 158p. On Mar 12th the 2015 Prelims were released which included the reserves reclassification.

Though a number of factors are now in place that are likely to lead to higher 2Ps, and bbls produced, than the agreed view at the time there has not yet been any reclassification.

Peter

[richalert] 26/1/2018 09:01

EE.

If we put the deal issue to one side for now, then my original question was

Why has the share price in Soco not mirrored the recent rises in oil.

Is it because institutional investors wait to see the effects become clear on the balance sheet, and hence there is a lag in the share price respect to oil?

Or has there been a downward correction on the value of Soco, and if so why. We know about reduction in reserves previously and that did not seem to have a marked affect.

So it's a little concerning to see the price where it is.

I do believe that management seems to have dropped the baton, and do wonder what has really happened to make the Cable's retire, and to be replaced by Mike Watts etc. But of whom we have heard very little from. News has been almost non existent recently.

Just hope there are no skeletons in the cupboard.

[emptyend] 26/1/2018 08:35

Just as a reminder, last time round it was a case of the word being put in my mouth by SirL. I was expecting something to happen in the next six months and in fact bid talks were indeed RNS'd 2-3 months later (then immediately scuppered by the financial crash).I don't think we'll be waiting 2-3 months this time.

[lauders] 26/1/2018 01:40

Indeed....on every definition of the word, it is now imminent, I think ;-)

Brave lad to use the "I" word EE but I sincerely hope you are correct this time ;-)

Perhaps I should increase my holding now? Hmm.... If only I was a braver man! Good luck tyler19, you will probably do well and hopefully we will all find out "relatively" soon what is going on behind closed doors!

[emptyend] 25/1/2018 21:46

Hi richalert,The answer is quite simple really. Nobody has a clue what the deal is. Thats not true, exactly......but everyone who does know the plan (or alternative plans, to be more accurate) is an insider and unable to deal.It is often thought that leaks will always happen. That is wrong, in my experience...at least within UK/EU regulatory framework.

[tyler19] 25/1/2018 21:44

Looking at the share price graph it’s easy to feel the pain of private investors, but this is often what the graph looks like before a recovery. I’m reinvesting in the company after a long and previously successful break. The oil price is recovering nicely. Minimum production for 2018 is 8 to 9000 boepd plus 5 new wells to be drilled, even if half of the wells are successful it should start the price recovery, without a KE merger. Although deals are very likely. However, short term investors may sell if ke merger doesn’t materialise, for me that will be a perfect opportunity to top up, may be the last chance before a long recovery.

Anything is possible but would KE really want to miss out on this high oil price environment to realise some gain?

[emptyend] 25/1/2018 21:43

I can spot a lazy sod making cheap shots when I see one. cheerio.

[richalert] 25/1/2018 21:01

I wonder, if a deal is really on the offing, why there is so little interest shown in the share price. Last time we were at 70 mark on oil, the share price was over twice what it is now. So a transformational deal at this moment in time would be truly remarkable. But we live on hope.

[eggbaconandbubble] 25/1/2018 20:25

"You've had all you are going to get." ....... "Do your own research."

Me,rude! I think that's the pot calling the kettle black, Chum!

[emptyend] 25/1/2018 19:54

You've had all you are going to get. I reported it at the time - do your own research.....and try to be less rude.

[eggbaconandbubble] 25/1/2018 19:38

Empty - can you please give us the gist of your tete a tete with the Chairman at the AGM. Ta in advance

[emptyend] 25/1/2018 19:09

Hi YASRUB,I can tell you for certain that KE is neither the only "first" deal nor is it the only deal that will be done (if indeed it is done).I can also confirm (from a chat with the Chairman at the AGM) the first deal will certainly be a transformative one. We'll see what happens.ee

[yasrub] 25/1/2018 18:44

Hi EE

I think it is fair to say that expectations will be high from PIs that have held for sometime. The profile of senior management, alignment in significant shareholdings and the length of time where possible deals will have been available leave little wriggle room for disappointment. Whilst I remain hopeful recent operational updates have been neutral and the pressure will be on SIA management to get the balance right. As you say this could happen any time and quite likely that KE is not the only deal, but it does need to be transformative and not a damp squib.

[emptyend] 25/1/2018 15:56

I'd simply say to people that we are in a phase when a (transformative) deal could literally happen at any time. Indeed....on every definition of the word, it is now imminent, I think ;-)They've spend nearly a year on looking at (probably) scores of possibilities. They will have been in a closed period for months and unable to say anything to anyone (except when forced to do so when a possible deal gets out via people outwith the reach of UK regulations). That remains the case, unless they have wall-crossed institutions under MAR (as they may very well need to do shortly before a deal gets done, given that we know they are looking to do a substantial and transformative deal).Who knows what deal will get done first......but I personally doubt the Kuwait Energy is the most likely, even if it is the only one that is public.

[lauders] 25/1/2018 11:17

OK I admit I had to look-up what "wall-crossed" means while we are waiting and waiting and the share price drifts away:

Pages 6 & 7.

[emptyend] 24/1/2018 08:36

While waiting, I observe volumes are negligible. Leads me to wonder whether some institutions have been wall-crossed.

[emptyend] 24/1/2018 08:14

Well said Glavey! I note you got more support for that view than I did ;-)Meanwhile we wait.

[glavey] 24/1/2018 02:57

Gentlemen, This is a SOCO forum. Please kindly take your o/t debates on other matters to a more suitable venue elsewhere. Thank you.

[tournesol] 23/1/2018 22:37

Richalert

Are you seriously blaming UKIP and/or Brexit for the English civil war?

You do know that was in 1642-1651?

Do you know anything whatsoever about the causes of that war?

How do you imagine they relate to UKIP/Brexit?

[fangorn2] 23/1/2018 22:09

"If you say "last from me" please try remember that for at least an hour....."

It was Last from ME to YOU, obviously.

My next was in direct response to Volsung's comment

Why don't you just point out my inaccuracies in my claims above then - might as well do it for all to see here as I'm sure there are several other Ukippers lurking

Unlike you EE I'm not wedded to any particular faction in UKIP.

[invisage] 23/1/2018 22:07

ee You seem to have a problem everywhere you go with getting on with people. Have you considered counselling?

[emptyend] 23/1/2018 22:03

If you say "last from me" please try remember that for at least an hour.....If you want to discuss it rather than parrot inaccuracies to all and sundry, I'm sure you can find an appropriate link to get in touch with me directly. If not then just stick to topic.