Smiths News Share Discussion Threads

[bscuit] 07/11/2012 16:58

And thanks from me--Scotland was a bit far --even on a Senior railfare! I got in @77 so near the bottom. My fastest riser in the period.

[davidosh] 07/11/2012 11:39

No problem guys and pleased you enjoyed it. I am certainly feeling confident.

18BT....Can you copy that report on to the TMF thread about Smiths News or give me permission to do it? It would be useful on the ShareSoc site too

[gswredland] 07/11/2012 10:02

Thanks 18bt!

[fenners66] 07/11/2012 00:16

Thank you very much for your informative summary.

[edmundshaw] 06/11/2012 23:09

Cheers from me too 18BT. Always nice to get a bit more detail from the horse's mouth.

[cw2000] 06/11/2012 20:59

18BT - many thanks for taking the time to post these comments.
Much appreciated.

[lord gnome] 06/11/2012 19:51

Many thanks 18BT and thanks also to Davidosh for organising the event. Looks like I'll be holding on to my shares for some time to come.

[corbeta] 06/11/2012 18:36

18BT, thanks very much for taking the trouble to post your summary.

[18bt] 06/11/2012 17:29

As promised a summary of my main take aways from yesterday's PI meeting with Nick Gresham as organised by Davidosh. Whilst we were given their investor presentation, the format was much more Q&A and incredibly informative:

- The target of only 50% of operating from outside news by y/e 2016 assumes that News profits will be held at c £40m. So the plan is for non-news to grow from current £12.2m to £40m in 4 years. Or put another way, group operating profit is planned to grow by 11.8% compound. I would note that the consensus forecasts for 2013 only show EPS growth of 6% (OK so interest wil grow a bit, but..).
- The significance of the News Intl extension has been underestimated. NI reviewed whether they should adopt the Direct to Retailer model (i.e. their own distribution) and rejected it outside London, so NWS picked up some more business as well as extending the contract. This underpins the visibility/confidence in News as if NI can't make DTR work, no other news group can
- Bertrams has been a hugely successful acquisition and, with Dawson Books, is again underestimated as a growth division. It is seeing huge growth in ebooks and the software which allows students to rent books or access chapters is complex. It is well placed in ebooks and is therefore not totally exposed to the decline of printed books - it is not like the news division.
- The Consortium operates in an interesting market with likely add-on acquisitions. 30% of the market is held by 4 Public Sector Buying Organisations i.e. local authority controlled private companies. Some of these may become available and The Consortium's purchase of a PSBO (West Mercia Supplies) just prior to acquisition by NWS, gives it a lot of experience. The market isn't that price sensitive as individual schools do not spend a huge part of their budget on consumables. They have 40,000 SKUs.
- Broadly, the Group is not particularly sensitive to the economy, but much more so to social trends such as declining newspaper readership. However, they are good at forecasting this and can strip out costs if their forecasts are out.
- A very interesting debate amongst those present as to leverage. A clear thought from some that it could be a good time to de-lever a bit through a placing, which would also allow some new institutions to buy in in size. Nick was non-committal and said that he had had opposing views from some shareholders and that with c£30m of free cashflow per annum and £100m of debt at year end, Net debt to EBITDA could fall to 1.1-1.2x by 2016 even allowing for some add-on acquisitions.

All in all, nothing in this which led me to question the re-rating of the last few weeks. In fact, just the opposite. All IMHO and I don't believe there is anything in this which is not available to the market.

[18bt] 06/11/2012 10:33

Very good presentation by Nick Gresham of NWS yesterday, arranged by Davidosh, to whom a lot of thanks for taking the trouble. Will summarise some of the material points later, but for the moment just to note that I thought that it was brimming with confidence.

[kazoom] 24/10/2012 18:53

Hey Davidosh - thanks for arranging the presentation - would love to come but sadly I have a previous engagement - promised to take my children out to burn some Catholics!

Mind you, the way things are going I may not be a shareholder by then in any case ;-))))

[18bt] 24/10/2012 14:39

Davidosh, now following you on twitter!

[edmundshaw] 24/10/2012 11:26

If I lived in London I would come for sure. As it is, a day trip would be needed - I cannot quite bring myself to be that energetic at the moment. Thanks for the general invitation though.

[fenners66] 24/10/2012 10:47

Davidosh - good luck with your presentation, this type of event organisation is shows the bullitin board at its best.
Unfortunately I too will not be able to make it. Its a long way and wrong time of the month work wise.
I bought at about 80p so I also am a very happy PI at the moment.

[speedsgh] 24/10/2012 10:22

davidosh - would love to have made it but the commute from norway makes it a bit difficult to justify :o)

thanks for all your efforts in setting up this meeting.

[18bt] 24/10/2012 10:07

David, it's David Young. Looking forward to meeting you there. I will aim to be a bit early so that we can compare questions in reception before we get going. BT

[markie7] 24/10/2012 08:40

This is interesting, we have a 19% holder who seems to be reducing their holding a bit.

In spite of that, the price still shoots up. I can only assume the lack of supply of stock is allowing the seller to sell at a premium rather than a discount - so, this may well continue to rise quite quickly as people who are attracted by a 6% yield or more come into the shares.

[davidosh] 24/10/2012 08:29

Yes Buchanan....Can you send me your name for the reception. You can email me via a post on TMF if you wish and this one is re Smiths News..

[18bt] 24/10/2012 07:57

Davidosh, yes I can and would like to come to the presentation. Is that at the offices of Buchanan? FYI, I control around 23,500 shares in TD Direct ISA's. SO not a huge PI, but a meaningful stake.

[gswredland] 23/10/2012 19:05

What a performance in a falling market - looking good

[lord gnome] 23/10/2012 18:07

davidosh - this is one meeting that I would truly like to attend and I thank you for arranging it. Sadly, I won't be able to join you.

[davidosh] 23/10/2012 17:54

It will be in Cheapside, London. I think a 4pm start gives just about everyone a chance to get there and back on a cheap rail or bus ticket within the day though. Even thos working full time in London might be able to slip off for an early finish! Anyway I do these all the time and in the case of NWS I am up nearly 100% when including the dividends since my last meeting with the management so who am I to moan!?
I guess you know where I am coming from...it just feels that having arranged something then management need to see there are a good few private investors showing direct interest otherwise I find they are distanced from us and more likely to do a deal later (MBO, cheap management driven merger or lowball offer)that rather hurts my investment. Not suggesting the directors here are like that at all but I have seen it so many times.

[aleman] 23/10/2012 17:18

I also appreciate the effort but I have a prior engagement and would need a babysitter, as well, besides London always being a bit of a struggle, if that's where it is being held.

[cestnous] 23/10/2012 16:39

I would be David and appreciate your effort in setting things up, but i'm afraid it is to far away from where I live. Cheers.

[18bt] 23/10/2012 16:38

David, where will the presentation be held? BT