Smg Share Discussion Threads

[carlmba] 16/9/2006 16:36

Hi Papa - yes I think you were wise to dip out on the previous high - however, I think that a private investor will show their hand sooner rather than later, and when they do, the share price will move northwards again. I don't think we will see 70 again...However, you never know!

[papaduke] 16/9/2006 14:42

hello again all!!,i am waiting on the sidelines and seeing if they drop lower.I think they will.I suspect cfd and hedge funds are at work here,i therefore the price to drop to 70p or lower before any bid.( i mean the shorters are at work),so that bidders can top up with cheap shares!!.

very very glad to have sold at 82p (always better not to be greedy)

Imho the mkts are due a fall,i therefore expect smg to fall aswell.

not deramping,but i just think the players are at work here and that means shorting etc, to push down the price, and oh yes they have had some profit form 68p to 83p,sold and now short it to 68p again and so on!!!.Thats how they play the game.

sit back and bide youre time

[carlmba] 15/9/2006 09:23

LOL - thanks Motion! I am posting my "thoughts" etc since I am aware that not all investors or potential investors post, but they do read. I do just that with a number of my investments...plus, you never know if a debate/conversation will be sparked that can help maximise gains...I am sure that something is afoot and will reamin a holder until I feel that the share price has peaked. I can't see this happening until merger/takeover talks subside...

You're right to not hold your breath, I was expecting merger talks to begin much earlier in the year - they have taken months to come about and now they are here seem to be taking time to conclude...None the less, i'm happy to hold at present.

Good luck to you!

[motionboy] 15/9/2006 09:14

carlmba

You must be starting to think you are talking to yourself! I sold last week as I was concerned that the results would include a profit warning. Just bought some back and will buy more if the share price drifts a bit lower. There seems to be too much potential activity surrounding this company for nothing to happen at all.

I suspect the Pearl and Dean sale is defensive. They have probably promissed major shareholders that cash from the sale will be returned by special dividend. Hoping for news in the week-end press but not holding my breath.

[carlmba] 15/9/2006 09:04

this article mentions possible furhter bids on the horizon...



Worth a read

[carlmba] 14/9/2006 06:31

Hmm - this could be interesting - D Hanson Group now have an interest...should heat things up...

[carlmba] 13/9/2006 17:00

Good Luck to you too Papa - hope you continue to see gains elsewhere!

C

[papaduke] 13/9/2006 10:56

sold this am,made 12.5% profit in 4 weeks,so cant complain.

I think if they sell pearl and dean this may knacker any bid.

i didnt want to be greedy,3 times as much net profit in 4 weeks than i get in the nationwide over 12 months.

thanks for youre comments carl,good luck.

papa

[carlmba] 12/9/2006 07:33

Interesting start to the day - filling a big order?

[carlmba] 11/9/2006 20:44

Big sale didnt help - hopeful for a tick up tommorow - 84p would be nice pre news

[carlmba] 11/9/2006 17:08

Not the day I was expecting to be frank - Some nervouse investors out there selling up before the results - I'm still happy to hang on a bit longer....

[papaduke] 11/9/2006 06:38

nothing in utv results about merger talks??.

[papaduke] 10/9/2006 20:37

carl,i fully concur,we shall see.

i am away on business from am monday until wednesday,so good luck ,i will not be posting until later in the week.

lets hope for starters the results are good or as expected.

all players should now be showing their hands or very soon.

its a simple question of waiting now.

good luck

papa.

my best scenario is simply a healthy cash bid and soon,ie 95p or 100p etc.

on that note i am out and clear and moving on.i may even get out if we get to high 80p s this week,as that gives me more than 20% profit in 4 weeks or so.

mustnt be greedy

[carlmba] 10/9/2006 19:56

Papad - I agree that we will more than likely see a conclusion this time around since both sets of results are out + and UTV have enough experience now to not balls it up.

However, in my view we have three possible outcomes:

1/ The merger goes ahead - SMG share holders are given 55%ish of the combined company. Good enough for me.

2/ A private bid flys in and we are offered x for our shares. Again, good enough for me as long as that x is 82 + something.

3/ SMG see their current performance and future prospects as something that a merger with UTV would dilute - if this is the case, I would expect strong reasoning behind the decision in order to appease shareholders and thus I would expect stregthening of the share price Something else I can live with.

Make that four possible outcomes...

4/ SMG reject the UTV offer and a Private bid does not come because we are seen to be performing too strongly and thus expensive - Although this may irritate some shareholders that were expecting a merger I would see it as a signal that the share price may be on the road to recovery; although probably over the medium term. This would be my least prefered outcome but in fairness I see it as the least likely.

I know the above are quite cut and dry and make some assumptions but in broad terms i'd say that in any event we are in a good position. This week will be interesting and should fill in some blanks - I expect to see some volume trading soon and a tick up in the share price as a result...

[papaduke] 10/9/2006 16:41

with results out from both this week,i feel it concluding very soon.

cat out of the bag,so to speak.

i am holding and waiting,having bought at 72p,i am well up ,but it must be worth more than 82p,think of all the prime pearl and dean sites and the advertising sites uk wide + virgin radio.

this will not go down without some serious bids imho.

woodward is waiting to pounce,...hey let him!!!,he can have mine at 100p

[papaduke] 10/9/2006 16:37

carl, good work,but it has been well documented that woodward is waiting on the sidelines,he will NOT want a merger.

he will strike and soon with cash.

whatever happens its worth more than 82p

[carlmba] 10/9/2006 15:33

This is old and most of it is already known, however, it does mention on one hand that SMG are now perhaps too expensive for a private bid - on the other it talks of some opinion being that we are worth £1 a share...



Hey ho...

[carlmba] 10/9/2006 15:19

MotionB - I think that a deal will be hammered out - UTV know they need to do better than 52% and they have still come back to the table - so, they must be willing to offer more - whether it's 55% will no doubt rely some way on the results.

Thinking about it from a business perspective, although we don't know the inns and outs of what the results will say, the two companies do. If SMG were looking weak, they'd have accepted 52% and counted themselves lucky. If UTV were looking strong they would stuck to their guns and claimd 52% a fair offer - so using my crude reasoning, I see some mileage in the ensuing talks between the two. Plus the news above claims this "Hale" lady is good at getting these things closed - and she is on our side.

I hear your point re. a venture capitalist bid but business is an interesting beast and i'd discount nothing at this stage - of course, sell first thing if you feel that is best for you but I am happy to let this play out a little longer and do anticipate further share price rises before an anouncement.

[carlmba] 10/9/2006 15:09

Have a goosey gander at this -

Not particularly insightful but gives us a bit more detail (95% about "Sara Hale" who will be working on closing the deal)...If the article is to be believed, then it could be 3rd time lucky - Sara seems to have a name for herself in these affairs but will be working in the interests of SMG so if a deal is to be had, at least we know it will be as good as it could be...a 55% split in favour of SMG is still being banded about and I am still to work out conclusively what that means in pounds and pence for your average holder. The article also refers to the iminant figures release which may give more credibility to and justification to SMG wanting the lions share of a merge - if they are particularly healthy then perhaps more than 55% (by helthy I mean SMG's results being substancially better than UTV's)...hmmm, we shall see.

I've not dug anything up regarding a private bid but if they are out there and still interested, then this week will be the week they become known - I anticipate some RNS early through the week re the SMG/UTV deal so they don't have long!

Either way, I think we will have a blue week as more "regular" investors become interested in the opportunity to clear an "easy" 10% or so on their investment - the question will be how will the speculation effect the share price as any deal looks to be nearing a close??

Will be interesting to see how these talks are effecting UTV's share price ..

I'll post if I come accross anything else...

[motionboy] 10/9/2006 14:45

I'm selling tomorrow. No longer believe a bid is a realistic proseect. Nothing in todays' papers about it. They have been talking about a bid for 6 months. The rejection of the UTV offer was the time for a bidder to step in. Yet nothing happened.

It now looks as if SMG and UTV still want some sort of tie up. In this case venture capitalists will not intervene with a bid as it would mean going hostile and erode their scope for profit in breaking up and selling parts of the business. Talking of which, I see in one of today's papers that ITV is expected to suffer a further fall in advertising revenues. This would reduce the appeal to a venture capital backed bid as the assets will be worth less than a year ago.

[carlmba] 10/9/2006 14:42

I've not come accross anything yet...i'll have a proper nose around and see if i can root out anything...

[papaduke] 10/9/2006 11:31

small mention in the scotland on sunday.

in essence says, merger talks back on,but unless they hurry up a cash bid will come in which may not suit smg or utv.

all good for us,increase in share price regardless.results on the 13th.

should be a blue week.

woodward had stated they are waiting in the wings to see how things play out,either way,new owners very soon imho.

question is how much and when ??.

[papaduke] 08/9/2006 20:37

same!!,eye out for w/e press please.

we need cash bid hard rumours!!.

245k sell??,but somone was happy to lap them up at 82p

[carlmba] 08/9/2006 19:13

Have a good weekend papa - hopefully some fireworks to return to...well maybe a firecracker and a 3p rise!

Fingers crossed next week is the week...