Sirius Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[rpat2] 22/12/2024 17:20

Or simply Mcurtie brought into sort and sell Atog

[vatnabrekk] 22/12/2024 16:11

I'm not so sure about that astral. If it was true that Abura was producing 13,500 bopd then that oil was being pumped and on its way to the terminal at Forcados for export. Even if it wasn't lifted by tankers and even if cash wasn't paid (but due) then it would still be included in the accounts as accrued income, ie shown as revenue. But at this stage I'm afraid I can't think of any reason why it doesn't appear in the 2023 accounts.

These accounts were signed off by the auditors on 20th December.

Incidentally, I don't understand why there is no mention of any tanker liftings during 2023. Even if they were producing no more than the baseline production of 10,000 bopd then they should have been producing a tanker load of 500,000 barrels every 50 days.

[dr rosso] 22/12/2024 14:41

Amongst the car crash, there is a ray of hope. McMurtrie was obv brought in to salvage what he could from what looks to be tantamount to a fraudulent (at best, incompetent) Nigerian operation leading to a $48m loss for 2023, so saddling the Company with $85m of Trafigura loan debt, and unable to support costly reqs in Tunisia. Big T head honchos decide to pull the plug. April 2024 saw McMurtrie in as CFO to sort the mess, hapless Hendo being despatched some mysterious North Africa op which plainly doesn't exist.


McMurtrie charged with the unenviable process of eliminating that massive debt, as follows:-

a) $43m from the sale of the Tunisia portfolio

b) Feb 2025 sees 34 monthly accruals from blocks 18/31, giving $340m. That is $23m more than what is required to be handed over to Sonangol at final completion. Remember $18m was deposit paid, the remaining $35m from future production revenues. So, $23m to Trafigura.

c) Cash shows as $25m, and $19m of that could be used to clear the remainder of Trafigura loan pile.


Astonishingly, within a matter of a few months Tende, in the right hands and managed properly, COULD be completely debt free, going forward with substantial monthly revenues from the twin cash cows in Angola. Shareholders won't be seeing any return for a while, mind. Unless there really is that Incoming Group all set to take over the show.

As stated before, McMurtrie in for the rescue. As for the rest of the bunch, I wouldn't trust this lot with $85, never mind $85m. Gross incompetence or deceit? De facto operatorship of the Abura field throughout 2023 means taking responsibility for all aspects of production (3 million barrels, $112m revenue) and development. COPDC/Tende weren't engaged as temporary consultants in planning.

[vatnabrekk] 22/12/2024 13:21

Certainly doesn't seem to be happening anywhere near what they were telling us on 6 December 2023.

Write emails, everyone!

[astralvision] 22/12/2024 13:16

Yes, it seemed 'all systems go' according to the boys press releasesAs has been said, even if production has somehow nosedived, despite the glossy announcements, where the hell are the revenues for managing the 'base case'.The money has gone somewhere, that's for sure!

[htrocka2] 22/12/2024 12:50

Having gone through AR a few times...I found it confusing and ambiguous, however,...the pennies are now beginning to drop.....and this is my take on what I've read.

It has to be read in conjunction wit the Dec 2023 statement issued by the bod.....which goes as followed.




'The subsurface work entailed an ongoing review of the existing static and dynamic models of the Abura field, incorporating the latest production and pressure history. This subsurface data modelling combined with the ongoing field production data across 15 wells/strings enabled the team to identify several high-impact workover opportunities on existing wells which could add material production.

As a priority, these opportunities were ranked in a work programme of near-term well interventions with Baker Hughes who mobilised a team on site performing well interventions on the first series of wells: Abura 8L and Abura 11L which are expected to be completed at the end of December and are expected to add 1,000 – 1,500 bopd to gross production. A further well intervention is planned at Abura 4L during Q1 2024 which is expected to add incremental production of 500 bopd.

In addition, the operational team undertook a study for the optimisation of production facilities to accommodate the additional crude stream which will be put through the system as the initial workover programme is completed.

Current production at Abura is now running at c.13,000 bopd as a result of the optimisation of production facilities and infrastructure. Further workovers are programmed to be undertaken during the early part of 2024 to add additional incremental production.

Drilling of New Production Infill Wells

The operational team is finalising the overall work scope planned for the Abura drilling programme for 2024. Drilling of the first two of the new production infill wells focused on established horizons is expected to spud during Q2 2024 and the second in H2 2024, in line with the 2024 programme. These are expected to add a further 4,000 bopd of gross production from the Abura field. A third new infill well is also expected to spud during H2 and this target will be assessed as part of the ongoing appraisal of the Abura field as the team builds on its knowledge base through each new well.

At the commercial level, and with base volumes methodology under the structure of the FTSA having been agreed, the crude lifting programme regarding OML 65 entitlement is in the final stages of being established for the 2024 loading programme.'


Personal comment...It seems to me that the Abura field production has been dropping from 15k bopd to 10k and current 8K bopd.(presumable this was for the combined 15 wells in total)The chosen intervention wells 8L, 11L and 4ll are among the existing 15 wells already in operation on the Abura field.
8L has the proven capacity and increased production to 10k bopd, 11L, although had wireline problems, acknowledge the Pressure, so presumably capable of the 8L equivalent. 4L is interesting in that it's now fully operational...but that's it...no info on that one and kept quiet together with 2024 lift....The down side being that it's taken nearly three years to get these wells re-graded....so how long will it take to accomplish the 48 well programme? ...and of course, we wait for the Angola outcome...that seems to still be alive and on-going in the background.

[astralvision] 22/12/2024 12:43

VatnaI think Abura has something like 9 producing wells? Would have to checkIf they're all producing around 1,000 bopd then one well out, even if for a significant time, shouldn't make too much difference.But who knows?

[dr rosso] 22/12/2024 12:37

$220m worth of Abura oil revenue has gone missing. None of it has been received by Tende, but our Ds have awarded themselves $2.2m for their part in this.

[vatnabrekk] 22/12/2024 12:29

Astral, the wireline incident occurred in Q2 2024 which, I believe, closed off Abura well 11L. I don't know how much production was coming from that well, but if that shut-down lasted for the rest of the year it could have reduced the overall average significantly. anyway, I'm hoping that they will tell me the total production for each year, then it may start to make some sense. Maybe!

Of course the missing revenue is another matter!

[rpat2] 22/12/2024 12:08

Where's solarno lopezI guess the update has sent him/ her into hiding also Sirius / Tende strikes again everyone's hole has been drummed

[astralvision] 22/12/2024 12:04

Vatna
Could be just a mistake. But 8,000 still seems incredibly low for 2024, given that we supposedly exited 2023 at 13,000 with, according to the update, several operations either undergoing or about to start to boost that figure significantly.
And they were absolutely clear that we earnt money on the base production, not just the incremental production.
The whole thing doesn’t make any sense at all to me.
On what we currently know I would value the Nigerian operations around zero, on a good day. But there again would Trafigura get involved unless the deal stacked up and made sense?
Complete and utter mess, imo.

[vatnabrekk] 22/12/2024 11:53

Astral, another possibility is that the 8,000 production figure relates to 2024 and not 2023. That's what I think it is, but let's see if I get a reply to my email.

At this point I have only asked about the production figures because I just think there is possibly more chance of getting a response if I only ask about one thing at a time. But most definitely a question needs to be asked about the disappearing revenue, because as Dr.Rosso says, even if the production was marginally above the baseline, there should at least have been SOME revenue!

But back to the production figures: I am certain that the production for 2023 must be somewhere between the start point (10,000) and the December 2023 point (13,500) using the figures given in their own updates, and in my email (copied on here earlier) I have asked for the total production for the year 2023 and also for 2024.

The wireline incident happened in Q2 2024 and I don't know when it was fixed, or even if it has been fixed yet, so I can accept that production for 2024 will be substantially down on 2023. So it would make sense for 2024 production so far to be in the region of 8,000. And that would probably fit with the statement that production in November 2024 was 10,040.

It really needs as many people as possible to email them, or phone them, asking about the production figures for 2023, and also asking why no revenue is shown for 2023. The more who try to contact them, the more chance there is that we might get a response. There is now enough info in the posts on this BB to enable people to compose an email, or just copy the one I have sent.

[aventador] 22/12/2024 11:32

It’s shocking really but nothing we are not used to. Least if it was listed we could get something back even that chance don’t seem to be an option anytime soon.
We need Angola to complete or it’s game over.

[dr rosso] 22/12/2024 11:21

Christmas cracker of an update as the Grand Illusionist now manages to make 3 million barrels of Nigerian oil disappear, along with the Tunisia portfolio.

[astralvision] 22/12/2024 11:14

VatnaWe've got three figures for 2023Starting point c 10,000 beginning of year, update dated 26th July 2023 giving 10,500 and update dated 6th December 2023 giving c 13,000.Now they tell us average production in 2023 was 8,000 bopd.We need an explanation and also need to be told where the money is for this production.Possible explanations -The three figures given for 2023 were wrong and they were deliberately misleading.-production between given figures dipped alarmingly, that doesn't seem likely for a field with known characteristics over 30 years-they just make anything up

[vatnabrekk] 22/12/2024 08:39

I see they still haven't filed the accounts at Companies House. Probably waiting until 31st December.

[vatnabrekk] 22/12/2024 07:56

A I said, they have a lot of explaining to do. The more of us who write to them the more chance we have of getting some sort of reply.

[vatnabrekk] 21/12/2024 22:47

That still doesn't make sense Doc, because if the starting point was 10,000 (baseline) and at the end of 2023 it was 13,500 (both of which was their own figures) then at least for some part of the year production was in the incremental range, so surely they owe us an explanation as to why revenue is zero for 2023.

[dr rosso] 21/12/2024 22:39

Fact is that we are receiving nothing ($0 pb) for the base 10k bopd, or anything under that figure, despite our supposed operatorship.


If we stabilise at 10,040 bopd for 2024, Tende's entitlement is going to be a share of this incremental 40 bopd. At $15 pb, that'll be $600 per day = $2m per year.

One wonders how many millions of dollars the Ds are going to pay themselves for this ultra-puny sum, which will mean racking up another $20m+ operating loss in 2024.. I guess the $2m will cover their own salaries. It's appalling.

[vatnabrekk] 21/12/2024 22:29

Here's a copy of the email that I have sent to the BoD:

Thank you for your operational update on Friday 20th December and also for the release of the 2023 Financial Report and Accounts. Having looked through the reports I have several queries which I wonder if you could please clarify for me:

Abura Oil Production: In your email circular dated 6th December 2023 you stated that current production at that time was 13,500 bpd, which was an increase from the baseline production that was inherited by the consortium in December 2022. The update also stated that Baker Hughes was expected to add a further increase of 500 to 1,000 bpd by the end of the year 2023.

In your latest operational update on 20th December you stated that average production during 2023 was 8,000 bopd. This average figure doesn’t tie in with the starting level of 10,000 bpd in December 2022 and the production level of 13,500 bopd 6th December 2023. Surely the average production during 2023 should be somewhere in between those two levels?

For the sake of clarification can you please advise the total production at Abura for the year 2023.

Also, in your latest operational update on 20th December you stated that exit production in November 2024 was at 10,040 bopd. At this level it would seem that all incremental production above the initial baseline has been lost. Can you please confirm if this is the case, and if this is entirely due to the wireline failure that occurred in Q2 2024?

Again for the sake of clarification can you please advise the total production at Abura for the current year, and when are you expecting full production to be resumed from Abura 11L.

[vatnabrekk] 21/12/2024 22:23

"8000, 10,000 or 13,000, Tende's share of the revenue from the field remains the same."

Yes Doc, but that doesn't make any sense, so an explanation is required, and they ought to be pressurised to come with an explanation.