Sirius Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[thedoogster] 31/3/2017 17:24

Great post 1alfi! Many thanks for sharing your thoughts!

[them0se] 31/3/2017 17:03

1Afli,

I don't normally take much notice of stuff on here (Sherl0ck and Bronislav aside)
But that was one hell of a great post.

No conspiracy theories, just figures from RNS's and composed thought behind it.

Thank you..

[htrocka2] 31/3/2017 16:55

We're currently up over $3 of the CPR estimate....(that's an extra $32,700 a day (nearly a quarter of a million dollars a week) 'bonus' to the 10310 (Rockflow estimated) bopde......and climbing.

($53.17 a barrel as I write)

[1alfi] 31/3/2017 16:21

Thanks for the positive feedback. Thanks Shez for a much appreciated comment.

[drrichard] 31/3/2017 16:06

ialfie , printed it out and have read it twice! Excellent! Thank you.

[shez20] 31/3/2017 14:46

Good post 1alfie

[handygandhi] 31/3/2017 14:38

Excellent post 1alfi.
Analytical and thought provoking, to say the least.
It makes the agony of waiting a little more bearable.

[htrocka2] 31/3/2017 14:11

good post 1alfi.....it looks like all the chips have been placed on 'first oil'.

[sherl0ck] 31/3/2017 14:10

Good write up 1alfi. That must have taken a lot of time to collate all the info and type it up so thanks. I rather hope that April sees a bit more external news and action than March has. Hopefully Bobo's PR was a sort of prelude for this.

[stu1210] 31/3/2017 13:32

I'm hoping for more than 4% Pipeline

[pipelinepete] 31/3/2017 13:18

Nice 4% rise for lekoil announcing shell as a funding partner. Let's hope our fourth partner has a similar effect here. Looking good.

[1alfi] 31/3/2017 13:13

6cer 62650 “ 1alfi - what do we owe havoc ?”
Good question that throws up some interesting points

29 June 2016 Accruals = 2,718($'000) ( up to 31 dec 2015)

“Included in accruals is a liability to Havoc Services Pty Ltd of $454,000 (2014: $191,000) for technical services provided. Payment of this amount is deferred until:
a) the Company secures project funding for the next phase of Ororo field development or
b) acquires an interest in a significant oil discovery offshore Nigeria or
c) accepts any proposal resulting in a change of control of the Company or
d) as may otherwise be mutually agreed between Havoc Services Pty Ltd and Sirius.”

22 June 2015 - “ Havoc are being remunerated for their services through a mixture of Sirius warrants (as described below), a monthly retainer and fees for ad hoc services as may be agreed from time to time.”


According to the above we owe Havoc $454,000. Does this amount represent the accumulation of monthly retainer as per 22 June 2015 ?
Are Havoc still employed ?

In the 2014 accounts we owe Havoc $191,000 - In the 2015 accounts we owe $454,000
That makes a difference of $263,000 per annum or approx $21,000/month
According to the Final Results (30/12/15) we owed $2,718,000 in accruals. Six months later in the interim accounts it is recorded as $2,898,000 which makes a difference of $180,000

There is enough room within this $180,000 to support Havoc being paid a retainer of $21,000/month (x6 months Dec 15 to June16 = $126,000).

I am not saying we are still employing Havoc, I am just showing that it would be possible for them to continue to be on a monthly retainer. If we pay off Havoc it would be a sign of ‘services no longer required’


Of the conditions deferring payment:-

a) “the Company secures project funding for the next phase of Ororo field development”
--------We have not yet officially secured our funding, so until we do this, payment is not initiated.

c) “accepts any proposal resulting in a change of control of the Company”
--------Speaks for itself

b) "acquires an interest in a significant oil discovery offshore Nigeria"
--------b is the one that really interests me because what the company appear to be saying here is that it is possible for Sirius to have ‘an interest in a significant oil discovery’ achievable before a) & c) above.

Is Ororo a significant oil discovery ? or have we been working on a field that has a significant oil discovery and is it so close to producing that it could initiate Havoc payment ?

Win win either way


The agreed resolutions from the 2016 AGM include - “to pay fees incurred in connection with the provision of oilfield services £1,305,018R21; (522,007,200 @.25p/share)

What stands out first is the wording ‘fees incurred’ indicating that the work has already been done.

The £1,305,018 is based on raising equity at .25p/share which given the current share price behaviour seems unlikely. If the 522,007,200 shares raised money at 1p/share, that would equal approx £5mill to be spent on incurred oil field services.
Part of this money may be made payable to Havoc for “ad hoc services as may be agreed from time to time.”


29 June 2016 - "Also included within accruals are Directors' salaries which are payable in cash upon commencement of drilling of $1,497,000 (2014: $1,599,000). There are also other amounts in both accruals and other payables which are due on commencement of drilling."

So when the well is spudded the Directors can be paid their respective salaries. This in my mind could be the turning point for Sirius.

If the Directors salaries and other accruals are paid off shortly after spudding the well and if when we reach first oil Havoc are paid then these actions could be looked upon as house clearing in preparation for some sort of major change for the company, a sell of being one of the options.

When the Directors salaries are paid by bringing a number of shares into the market it could have the effect of taking some 'drag' of the share price As it stands we will not have the capital to pay the Directors salaries at the time of well spud and therefore, if we do pay, it will have to be raised through shares coming into the market. The question is at what price and how many shares. It is an unknown that could be having some effect on today’s share price It will be interesting to see if and when the Directors decide to take their payment following spud.

When the well is spudded and follow on to first oil I can see three immediate alternative courses of action for Sirius

1 - Sirius sell everything, rights to Ororo and any farm in rights they have to any other assets. Sirius may have been readying these other assets alongside work on Ororo. Hopefully the proceeds would make it a happy day for all investors

2 - Sirius sell their interest in Ororo and use the proceeds to gain access to and development of another asset or assets to be sold off in a similar manner. Sp increase and possible one off dividend for each asset sold.

3 - Sirius go down the road of producing. Sp increase and possible annual dividends


In the meantime I have accepted that I have to sit and wait a little longer before the true nature and value of Sirius is exposed. April could be a difficult month in terms of share action. Whilst I am waiting I will be particularly watchful regarding any shares coming into the market, at what price and in particular for what purpose. To me they are guidelines as to where we are going and how soon we are going to get there. The accruals will have to be dealt with at some point.

As for the PIB - it may be that the Chinese are being cautious and require some conditions to be made Law before they release the full might of their proposed 80 billion investment. That would justify any apparent determination or urgency to get the PIB passed into Law.

Please take all the above as speculation and guesswork.

I leave you with this quote from Bobo and entered into the 22 june 2015 rns announcing the agreement with Havoc:-

"We are also continuing discussions with potential farm-in partners and reviewing data with regards to participation in a significant oil block located in the shallow waters of the Niger Delta Basin”

There again is that word Significant

[aventador] 31/3/2017 12:50

The facts are all we can go by, if they stick to there schedule then.. production h1 cash generative by years end, anything else and the potential share price is all speculation dyor.

[htrocka2] 31/3/2017 11:36

Should the PIB be favourable to the industry, which I've no doubt it will be and potential investors release the estimated $200bn currently being withheld, all the 'big boys' will be screaming for the likes of Schlumberger Nigeria ltd....who will be tied up and under contract with a tiddler SRSP. We'll have to give the bod some credit for the foresight.

The fourth element has already been an advantage , probably without realising it. His insistence to come on board only if Schlumberger, who were the last to sign, were contracted....otherwise Schlum could well have been signed up elsewhere for a along term project...and two important pieces of the jigsaw lost.

[dr rosso] 31/3/2017 11:30

Boredom undoubtedly until April 6. Expect high vol through the following week as £20k transfers get put through at the lowest poss share price Is it coincidence that this rustled-up "seabed survey" completes around the 14th, meaning that Monday 17th onwards paves the way for a series of significant news releases which should see the share price march up towards a 2p target on drilling commencement. Whether it'll be Sirius doing the drilling remains to be seen.

[bumhammer] 31/3/2017 11:15

Rosso, a distraction from what exactly? The massive buying/selling power on here??
Come off it.
Just me sparring with Mork and Mindy through boredom.

[aventador] 31/3/2017 11:08

'Friday Rush' you avin a larf?

[pipelinepete] 31/3/2017 11:01

Friday rush :)

[htrocka2] 31/3/2017 10:58

A lot of investment being held up due to PIB delay.....probably include 'cashier number 4' as well.

[dr rosso] 31/3/2017 10:54

Nice bit of distraction to cover up something that's touched a nerve?

[aventador] 31/3/2017 10:49

BumHammer - 31 Mar 2017 - 10:35 - 62791 of 62791 - (Filtered)

[bumhammer] 31/3/2017 10:35

So basically you right your bile for BOD to see.
Sad case.

[aventador] 31/3/2017 10:31

No one wants to read your BS posts BH please refrain from posting thank you filtered.