Simec Atlantis Energy Share Discussion Threads

[clabburn] 12/8/2020 10:59

Thanks for posting the research note. Im personally sceptical we will get ROCs from Uskmouth - I think they will reclassify this as waste rather than biomass but it should be a shoe in for capacity market payments which arent mentioned anywhere in the research note. I also expect a big contract with Liberty Steel but the future of operations there is uncertainty post-covid. I suspect this will go in our favour when it comes to Newport Council decided on planning consent. The Uskmouth conversion is important for the future of the steel operations as well and I doubt the council would want to put those jobs and rates at risk by turning us down. I think environmental permitting will take a bit longer as well so dont be surprised if this slips into October.

[rogerramjett] 12/8/2020 08:49

If it helps. This link shared on LSE represents current broker valuation based upon sum of SIMEC parts.

The note does not consider the new share capital of 490m or attribute value to the N+P deal but demonstrates a significant disparity between the current MCap and the valuation attributes to sum of part.

Let's just say that the attributed current value is 4 x higher than current market value.

[francoismyname] 11/8/2020 21:13

18-20p tomorrow.

Still so under valued .

Should really be in the 35-40p range, To be remotely valued at something like fair value.

[rogerramjett] 11/8/2020 17:13

Gbjbaan. Yes. The DC agreement was announced in an RNS. They will be set up on site so the energy can be supplied directly. Unfortunately, when this was announced its possible the market did not catch on to the positive effect it could have on profits through the increase in energy price from wholesale.

The review by McNulty really analyses some of this information in great detail.

[x54v] 11/8/2020 16:46

SAE also covered here today:

[x54v] 11/8/2020 16:44

Myles McNulty thread here:

[gbjbaanb] 11/8/2020 16:17

Just been reading McNulty on Twitter, saying that 20% of the power generated at uskmouth has been contacted to a private wire, probably a data centre. This is at £70/mWh instead of £45 that the grid pays.

Then he goes into detail, interesting stuff and very positive.

[wilsonst1] 11/8/2020 12:32

Not me. When I applied for EQT they arrived about a week late.

[volsung] 11/8/2020 12:22

Has anyone got their Primary Bid shares yet?

[rogerramjett] 10/8/2020 20:57

A few months will pass quickly. In the mean time I have a feeling this will creep up in anticipation.

[clabburn] 10/8/2020 20:52

I think so too. 110MW will be plenty to prove the concept works and there is no denying the company has a small balance sheet at the moment so anything that makes financing easier to come by makes sense to me. Still plenty of risk at project level so Im not counting any chickens until it reaches financial close but remain positive about big upside to come. Patience has been key to this one though and we still have a few months to wait...

[rogerramjett] 10/8/2020 19:57

Sorry. Its 250Mw operational capacity by 2021.



I assume this is the full 220Mw from Uksmouth which may be reduced to 110Mw by 2022 and the full 220Mw to follow after the first conversion is complete

To be honest I think this is a very sensible approach, will be easier to finance and will generate revenue earlier.

[rogerramjett] 10/8/2020 19:54

clabburn. I need to take another look at the website. I thought that was what I read. Sorry if misleading.

[clabburn] 10/8/2020 19:43

Agree with all that except their current generation is much lower - just 6MW at Meygen. Tidal will hopefully start growing again but probably not until 2022. All this underlines what a game changer it will be if they manage to get 220MW online at Uskmouth.

[clabburn] 09/8/2020 21:51

Im positive about this latest round of news. Losses and regular capital raises shouldn't come as a surprise if you fully understand what stage this company is at. It's been a long road for the tidal business but we should be blaming the UK govt for that not Atlantis. For uskmouth nothing material has changed regarding the conversion which remains on track and the JV is definitely good news for share holders. It's obviously a shame the price has dropped but a 5p dip will be barely noticeable if they reach financial close in 6 months time. We should see a massive uplift towards 40p if that happens. Reading between the lines it also sounds like they are already lining up the next conversion projects to work on and we could see some very interesting announcements this year. I'm holding long term with this one.

[beagrie] 08/8/2020 17:17

Thanks for your thoughts, its good to get perspective from someone with good insight and experience the industry, appreciated.

[rogerramjett] 08/8/2020 16:47

Beagrie, I have worked in the oil, gas and energy sector for over 25 years. What we are seeing now is a huge drive towards replacing fossil fuels. This is accelerating at a rapid rate.

I think SAE have a very diverse portfolio and will be very successful. Difficult to see any down side from here.

If they can finance each of their pipeline projects shareholder value will be fantastic. Once installed each project should provide payback and proftability in their own right.

[beagrie] 08/8/2020 16:14

Yes got in near the bottom of it.

I am hoping we are at the start of a craze for renewable stocks, something akin to
the dotcom era where anything with technology in it went through the roof regardless
of the company, being in the best of these stocks will hopefully propel those even further.

[rogerramjett] 08/8/2020 13:40

Good choice. I invested in VDTK a few months back. Another little gem. Hopefully you got in near the bottom of the retrace.

I think VDTK, SAE and AFC have significant value in them at current SPs and MCaps.

[beagrie] 08/8/2020 13:06

Yes it went through my mind too but didnt have the funds as i bought into VDTK At the begining of the week, glad I did, lets hoe they both pay off for us.

[rogerramjett] 08/8/2020 09:23

I did not add from the placing but trebled my holding yesterday at 13p. I figured 1p over placing was not bad.

The next 6 months could see a correction here. Uksmouth is estimated to produce £33mln per annum in profit alone. This is some way off completion but agreeing the financing for construction and awarding the EPC contract will be a major part of progress.

£55mln MCap does not really justify a business with these current assets. Some of which are already cash generative and only increasing with time.

[beagrie] 08/8/2020 09:16

Thanks for the proactive link Rogerramjett, I was wondering whether I had made the right decision in investing here a couple of months ago,annoying I could have bought cheaper but on the plus side the interview reassured me somewhat that this could be a huge story in the not too distant future.

[rogerramjett] 08/8/2020 07:41

well worth a watch if not seen yet. Puts things into perspective a little and kind of demonstrates how undervalued SAE potentially is.

Www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/926129/fundraise-clears-way-to-financial-close-at-uskmouth-says-simec-atlantis-energy-ltd-s-ceo-926129.html

[rogerramjett] 07/8/2020 15:28

was close to selling out yesterday but have just watched the proactive investor interview and ended up buying another 45k shares.

Looks like the financing required additional capital on the balance sheet and the N+P partnership could prove a great move.

Already generaging revenues and once adding in financing for Uksmouth conversion could be transformational for Simec. Next 6 months will be very intereesting.