Sibir Energy Share Discussion Threads

[jpgh] 13/2/2009 08:17

a3477681,

If you (or any other posters/lurkers) have any recent broker notes on SBE I would appreciate a copy (of notes referred to by Coco above). I have to do a write up on SBE over on Motely Fool for PP Pub competition (SBE (and Tullow Oil) are my joint picks for 2009).

I have owned SBE from 2005, adding on the way up and selling some here and there. I sold all my remaining holding in Sept 2008 to raise cash to cover losses elsewhere (lucky I did) and opportunistically got back in at 50p in December, a ridiculous price even with all the corporate governance furore over AC.

my email a

TIA

jpgh

[davidwilkin] 12/2/2009 21:22

another 5p tomorrow will do me, steady as she goes, that chart wouldnt look right with a big upward spike on it, its nice to trend higher in a sedate fashion.

[davidwilkin] 12/2/2009 19:52

i added further today, in at 63, 150 and now 166.....run your profits cut your losses......that old stock market adage.

[a3477681] 12/2/2009 12:41

Coco You have been calling it right all the way up and in the early phases of the rise you had considerable negative sentiment trying hard to push the price back the other way. Do you have access to those reports? Let me know if you need.
Value will out in the end. and the steps taken to unwind the deal are the right ones. Its hard to know what the properties will sell at but my guess is that this will be cleared up sooner than we think. When that happens there will be little chance to get in. In the mean time there will be positive news as the main winter drilling season closes which is when the winter roads melt think.

[coco] 11/2/2009 21:04

Interesting upgrade from Cazenove to outperform. They calculate price is at a 74% discount to core NAV of 637p. They say the up and downstream assets are world class and importantly safe. Sibir able to recover loan and even in the worst case that they recoup zero then NAV would only decrease by 3% (21p).

Jefferies have issued a buy recommendation with 225 target.

Thanks for that A347

Remember when at 43 pence I was shouting this up well im doing it again - UNDERVALUED BY A LONG WAY.

The news items over the next 270 days will keep the price on the up - Broker upgrade after broker upgrade - me Im holding tight and will enjoy the ride, Now I wonder when the Management update statment will be printed and the reserves upgrade from the Koltorsky blocks are due

Kind regards

Coco

[a3477681] 11/2/2009 16:28

Jefferies have issued a buy recommendation with 225 target.

my precis - On balance taking all the pros and cons into consideration they think Sibir is unlikely to loose money on the deal. Sibir could find it difficult to sell the assets at the valuation of 647.4m so by the time the property debt, expenses, and Orton's 192m are covered their conclusion is that the main advantages are that without the properties, Sibir, instead of requiring additional debt, will be debt free before the end of 09 leaving them free to prioritise capital on their oil business. They estimate $340m income for 09.

[davron8] 11/2/2009 16:27

It seems that the market likes the info released today.

[miamisteve] 11/2/2009 16:22

No money from the sale of the jet.

Sibir also agree to pay Mr. T $150,000 a month for 270 days.

The point here is that despite what Sibir say they are still being dictated too and won't sell the real estate at a knock down price to clear the Sibir debt. Only if the terms suit Mr. T. imo

[coco] 11/2/2009 15:54

Seems to be a big iceberg on the bid @171.5

Regards Coco

[coco] 11/2/2009 15:19

lol Pardon

[davidwilkin] 11/2/2009 14:08

we gonna own some property after 270 days after all then.....this news is neutral for the share price thats why it hasnt moved 1 way or the other.

[twosmiles] 11/2/2009 13:51

ref post 2883 the link is www.fox-davies.com

[need_2_b_brave] 11/2/2009 13:45

dammmmmmmmmmm market makers

[a3477681] 11/2/2009 13:01

"The Debt" will be re-paid from sale of the properties and Jet and Sibir have power of attorney over it all and hold the properties as security. What's the problem there?

quote from Deed of Arrangement
"As security for the Sibir Debt (and the related costs, fees and expenses), Sibir will be granted a charge over all of the Real Estate Portfolio, ranking only behind any existing charges already taken by third parties;

(v)
Upon full repayment of the Sibir Debt (and the related costs, fees and expenses) any surplus on realisation of the Real Estate Portfolio will be accounted for to Orton Oil until full repayment of the Orton Oil Debt has been achieved and any surplus then remaining will be paid to Mr Tchigirinski and all security not previously discharged will be discharged;

[miamisteve] 11/2/2009 12:46

1nf3rn0- The costs of running the jet are recoverable, not any money from the proceeds of the jets sale. No mention of interest.

[symphonie des grauen] 11/2/2009 12:40

interesting comments from fox-davies today on events at SBE

www.foxdavies.com

[1nf3rn0] 11/2/2009 12:34

miamisteve,

I think that cost is recoverable and Sibir also seem to be in line to receive proceeds from the sale of the jet too... that's how I read the below anyway

"which aircraft is currently being sold. These costs will be added to and form part of the Sibir Debt and will be recovered in accordance with the Deed of Arrangement"

[miamisteve] 11/2/2009 12:24

Bethany - correct. Mr. T's initial loans are charging at 14% pa. Probably more now that Sberbank have come involved. this is the same issue redressed, but without the further capital commitments for property development.

A small charge in the grand scheme of things, but why are Sibir paying for his private jet?

Sibir are making similar commitments only packaging it in interest free loans and in installments. Once the sibir debt is repaid, they will assume the orton oil debt and then another package will materialise. Selling it to the markets in pieces. I have no confidence in russian real estate market for the next year.

[a3477681] 11/2/2009 12:08

bethany3
You appear to be at odds with the Cazenove upgrade today. Do you have better analytical background I wonder?

[need_2_b_brave] 11/2/2009 11:50

im glad someones happy