Sibir Energy Share Discussion Threads

[a3477681] 05/1/2009 09:19

simfre
I agree about your realistic price for the oil side of the business once they pay a regular dividend. Hopefully the property issue will get resolved during the year ahead even dare I say it at a profit. Sibir gets little news because it is seen as a Russian company which is exactly what HC strives for. This keeps us out of trouble with the authorities and able to benefit from the huge Russian resources, but with a lot more vigour and know how than is usually displayed by a Russian company. The excellent technical and financial staff they have are far sighted and hard working
The downside of having our weighty hierarchy and what makes the share so volatile is that only about 10% of shares are effectively on the market.

[simferopol] 04/1/2009 11:45

Having had a stake in this company for years and seen it slowly grow to where it is now, I feel the £8.00 price it had last year was totally realistic.
The Russian market has to settle down and integrate soon to keep Putins credability so I would not be surprised if by the summer we see the share in double figures.
The company has enough going on to climb to the worth it had earlier and surpassit.
We hopefully should see a dividend before the end of this year and that would give us sharehlders a real boost and would also bring in new investors.
I'm always amazed that not hardly a word of news appears in the English papers about Sibir as its share price has been more Newsworthy than most that are written about.
Happy New Year to every body.

Simferopol.

[harryh05] 02/1/2009 22:05

I totally agree COCO, even £3.50 undervalues this excellent company, but as you say it is what someone is prepared to pay in this market and my range seems reasonable at present.

[coco] 02/1/2009 22:02

No harry even at £3.50 it undervalues this company at its full potential - its all about what someone is prepared to pay or has to pay TODAY.

[harryh05] 02/1/2009 21:57

Nice to hear your anaysis COCO, because mine is totally guess work. Sometimes you just think something is cheap and attribute a price. This is what I am doing here. £2.50-£3.50 just seems the correct price for this excellent company.

[coco] 02/1/2009 21:51

Memory i.e support and resistance - ive been correct so far the £1.25 ish level was resistance from when we first dipped below the £1.00 level it was sold off at this level (Intra day)and has fought to regain a close above this level for the last two weeks we have now closed above it and it Should now act as support - would exspect it to open down on Mon and rework its way up higher - please do not trade my technical guess work (if you reread my posts from December you will see Ive called a few of these memories - intraday support and resistance tests.) You watch me get it totally wrong from now on Lol.

[harryh05] 02/1/2009 21:29

COCO -Out of curiousity? what makes you think £2.60 and not £1.90 lets say?

[harryh05] 02/1/2009 21:15

COCO - I knew we were heading here. This was roughly my target for the short term. This company is seriously undervalued.

[coco] 02/1/2009 21:13

Moscow Market

With a metropolitan area population of over 16 million, Moscow is the largest city in Europe. Some 100,000 cars are added to Moscow City streets every year making it the Continents fastest growing market with some of its highest retail fuels margins. The Moscow Refinery is the city's primary supplier of fuels which, together with our retail fuels market share position of over 20%, provides significant price support for our refined products.

[coco] 02/1/2009 21:10

Pretty Dam Quick - Harry

Future Growth

Sibir has ambitious growth plans for its upstream operations and currently has a dedicated team of upstream professionals reviewing license opportunities with a minimum 200 million barrels reserves potential first in western Siberia and then elsewhere in Russia. Sibir is also evaluating potential corporate acquisitions to enhance its reserves and production base. With its two key upstream assets in production, Sibir aims to develop a balanced portfolio of exploration, development and producing properties to ensure robust growth now and in the future.

[harryh05] 02/1/2009 21:07

Happy new year COCO. (what do you mean by PDQ?)

[coco] 02/1/2009 20:55

Looking for this to regain £2.60 PDQ now (through intaday resistance but MAY back test it intraday in the next couple of sessions)- There seems to be a keen buyer, Still reckon that Bennefield will take this out - it would solve there cashflow problems but its wether the stockmarket listing would prove more valuable in the long run. Time will tell, still undervalued even giving the circumstances that brought us here.
If oil has bottomed or near bottomed then the upside is amazing from here - intend to hold for along time unless it is taken out.
Happy new year everyone.
Regards Coco

[banj] 02/1/2009 16:42

nice, on the road back :-)

[blue85] 01/1/2009 22:07

still cheap

[fxdealer3] 31/12/2008 13:58

I think china will go into recession in Jan 2009 and demand will continue to drop .I think oil will hit $25 p/b and will rise thereafter .

So being cautious woul like yo know forecast profit after tax at $30 p/b .

[a3477681] 31/12/2008 12:18

Coco
Your calculations and comments are very helpful. My attendance of the AGM assured me that the Sibir team is working extremely well and the recent deals are far sighted and profit enhancing from many perspectives. They give me the confidence to remain a holder and continue adding.
As I understood it during the AGM many of the petrol stations occupy prime Moscow city locations which , even though we may be an oil company, still adds net value to the company and because of their positions are able to sell more...of their own product which they will soon be extracting far more of. In HC I detected the calm resolve of a man that is sure of what he is doing for the company and a team that is working as one with good negotiators and knowledge of the environments they are working in. Don't underestimate this company. Lack of confidence by shareholders has been understandable but I think the tide is turning.

[coco] 30/12/2008 19:46

Ill tell you if you can tell me why you think oil will be at $30 p/b in 2009.

[fxdealer3] 30/12/2008 19:27

Anyone got a estimate of profit after tax for 2009 based on oil at $30 p/b for Sibir .

I am still researching the company .

Happy new year

FX

[harryh05] 29/12/2008 20:14

totally agree. Hope you had a lovely xmas.

[coco] 29/12/2008 20:12

Up Harry up but that said I aint got a clue Harry. Your guess is as good as mine, It is clear we are still undervalued and sooner or later the market will wake up to the major discrepancies here.

[harryh05] 29/12/2008 20:07

COCO - Where do you think we are heading from here?

[coco] 29/12/2008 19:59

P.s If I redo the sums again on the petrol stations with this new information it values the stations at $540,000,000 or £360,000,000

[coco] 29/12/2008 15:27

RNS Number : 8431K
Sibir Energy PLC
29 December 2008





December 29, 2008

SIBIR ENERGY plc ("Sibir")
Mosnefteprodukt Share Acquisition
Sibir today announces that it has acquired from Richard Enterprises Limited 18.36% of the
total share capital of Mosnefteprodukt in a
cash transaction valued at $34.9 million. The deal includes the purchase of 6,318,978 ordinary
shares and 26,329 preference shares in
Mosnefteprodukt and brings Sibir's total stake in the company to over 69.94%.
Mosnefteprodukt is involved in distribution of refined oil products via a network of
terminal facilities in Moscow and the Moscow region
and retail sales of motor fuels through a network of "Nefto" branded service stations in the
Moscow region. The "Nefto" branded
petrol-station network has suffered from years of under-investment and Sibir has targeted
roughly half of the 63 stations for demolition and
rebuild over the next five years in a targeted $75 million investment program.
Commenting on the announcement, Sibir CEO, Henry Cameron, said, "Sibir's acquisition of an
enhanced stake in Mosnefteprodukt is part of
its ongoing strategy to enhance and upgrade its presence in the distribution and retail sales
of motor fuels in Moscow and the Moscow
Region. This strategy builds on Sibir's strong existing presence in retail fuels through its
MTK branded network in Moscow and benefits from
Sibir's strategic supply position at the Moscow Refinery.
Following closely on the announcement of disposal of our interest in BP-branded retail
network this deal yet again demonstrates Sibir's
firm commitment to development of our majority owned downstream assets."
Enquiries to:
Henry Cameron, CEO
Moscow + 7 495 792 3045
Stuard Detmer, Member of the Board
Moscow + 7 495 792 3045
Rory Murphy, Strand Partners Limited
London + 44 20 7409 3494




Will do the figures on this later tonight

Regards Coco