Sibir Energy Share Discussion Threads

[kibes] 15/12/2008 19:09

COCO - good post. But I am concerned about point 5, Sibir does not have deep pockets and nobody is going to lend it any money. I also agree about the long term situation for oil companies, however if the oil price continues to go down to say $20/bbl or less (which in Russia could be as little as $5/bbl internally) then a lot of oil companies are going to go bust before the good times return. Sibir is helped by its ownership of the refinery but it could become extremely squeezed if oil prices do not pick up. And Gazprom itself is squeezed as there is talk of it having to borrow money from the Russian government. Personally I have a few SBE shares but I am not buying any more at the current level. There is still a huge amount of risk in my opinion.

[coco] 15/12/2008 08:03

BP. press speculation confirmed by SBE !

[imabastard] 14/12/2008 22:40

Coco .... hats off to you. I like your 'thinking man's' analysis and admire the fact that you were highlighting the oversold status at 37p, when the world and it's dog were throwing shoes (as we saw Bush receiving in Iraq tonight!) at the property purchase. Had they listened, they'd have trebled their investment in a few weeks. Well done.

[coco] 14/12/2008 21:41

Well after a weekend of thoughts,and for what its worth and I may not be correct but -

You have got to ask yourself several questions as I have done :-

1) Why has Igor agreed to take in Chav's bad debt on the property as he could have just purchased the shares direct from the bank in a distressed sale at a very reasonable price he CAN afford too.

2) Why Is SBE selling its stake in The BP. service stations - they are the most profitable in the world.

3) Why didnt the company go for a main listing in this last year.

4) Where is the oil price going in the future.

5) Why did Gazpromneft team up with Sibir on the Moscow oil refinary and where did Gazpromneft think Sibir was going to get the money from for the multi - billion $ upgrades planned.

6) Where Was the Money going to come from to upgrade the MTK network Of service stations.

7) With all this captal expense planned how is the company going to fund planned dividends.

8) How did Sibir plan to fund an aquisition to grow the company by a substantial amount.

Well after alot of thought, especially about the way of doing business in Russia and being pro Russian, I will answer my thoughts they may not be correct but hey thats what being a private investor is all about.

1) Igor needs chav its not what you know its who you know so he will vote in favour of the property and from a Russian point of view it means that the property including the tower will be built eventually by a Russian Company with Russian investors,the new modern symbol of Russia and its prosperity will not fail and probably political pressure was applied to Sibir including Igor for probabal favours to be passed their way in the future.

2) Lets just say that the share holding in BP. service stations is a conflict of interest and Sibir can grow and invest in its MTK network to rival the standard of the BP. stations. Note conflict of interest.

3) The company may not have gone for a main listing last year due to the company not being in its Final structure and as we all know the market does not like uncertainty so It was better left until all the I's and the T's are crossed.

4) Where the oil price is going is anyones bet, But the world thrives off oil, we need it and in Russia theres plenty of it so a good supply over a long term means investment over the long term which in turn will give a long term average and lets face it no one will produce oil if its not profitable - so over the long term oil producers will always be profitable - enough said.

5) The Refinary is a Jewel in any companies crown - Its amazing how such a small company can team up with Gazpromneft for a 50 - 50 share. The investment has got to come from a company that has deep pockets and not from a company that is relying on this years profits and lets face it oil companies profits go up and down. Also the investment and expansion of the Refinary will be politically welcomed By Russia - It needs external investment.

6) External investment - Russia needs it.

7) An investor invests in a company in the hope of getting a return on their investment - this is what makes the world go around monetery wise. Also the big investors need demand for their stock (so in Chavs case he can borrow againt it) - Thats why Sibir wants a main listing and remember investment funds require a regular weigh in.

8) I think with the growth in e an p companies in the last five years one or two companies over borrowed - take Urals for example high reserves and alot of borrowings - I think Sibir was probably looking to take out this company or another very similar and would take on another major investor to do it. Obviously if Sibir can remain strong it will have the political power and the potential to take out these reserves for the cost of the borrowings - dont forget Sibir will have made a few good friends by removing the debt risk from Chav's bankers - remember its who you know and not what you know in Russia - they are pro Russian remember but also they know they need external investment, From quality companies.

So to recap Sibir is a vehicle to attract major investment in to Russia for the benefit of everyone involved - and I think this external investment is going to be Shell - the sale of the Bp. stations was what cracked it for me.
Its a win win situation for Shell and Russia and everyone involved.

Please dont invest in this undervalued company, come back in six months when things are alot clearer and the stock is more expensive.

Regards Coco

[harryh05] 13/12/2008 20:52

also, with the OPEC meeting on 17/12/2008, does anyone think it will help oil related shares?

[harryh05] 13/12/2008 20:47

Hi,

Where do you think the share price will be heading this week?

Thanks

[cottlet] 13/12/2008 00:08

up and down like a fiddlers elbow.

[harryh05] 12/12/2008 23:25

any reason for today's drop?

[harryh05] 11/12/2008 20:34

LOL thanks COCO

[coco] 11/12/2008 20:32

Waiting harry - waiting

[harryh05] 11/12/2008 20:31

is this the only co you are looking at? any others that you belive to be u/valued?

[coco] 11/12/2008 20:29

Lol - they have got no money - Gazprom is a possability

[harryh05] 11/12/2008 20:24

why ie any other Russian Co?

[coco] 11/12/2008 20:22

Needs to be Russian.

[harryh05] 11/12/2008 20:21

COCO - What are you reasons for believing SHELL or any other CO would not bid for SBE?

[coco] 11/12/2008 20:11

No the sale to BP. has nothing to do with the gains Harry - thats down to being undervalued at the present price harry, thats all I know the rest is speculation

[harryh05] 11/12/2008 19:28

Hi COCO,

Still here my friend. We finally broke through £1.20 today. We are only 42p short from my initial prediction by year end and £1.12 short from my revised £2.30 year end target. My revised share price target still stands and would not be surprised to see a breakthough beyond £2.50.

In addition, I am not sure how influential is this petrol stations sale news to TNK-BP. Do you think this has something to do with the recent share price gains? I think not and believe there is some other underlying reason for these gains.

Regards,
harryh05

[coco] 11/12/2008 19:11

Well i dont know where the shareprice is going to go before Xmas and I dont really care because I see longer term value here above where we are today.

My main interest in the BP. transaction is a retail valuation to the remainder of the petrol stations they will still be left with alot of them and will help me value this part of the company.

I see oil is on the up today which helps the bottom line and would hope to see an average of $50 -$60 dollars next year.

Wheres Harry today - Paris maybe ? LOL

Regards Coco

[milliecusto] 11/12/2008 18:57

what kind of share price price could we get with the sell out to BP,could we possibly see the 200 mark before xmas..

[coco] 11/12/2008 16:38

Well lets see what tommorow brings, 118 in closing auction
- we may get news on the bp petrol stations

Regards Coco

[sakamuka] 11/12/2008 16:21

Makes for an interesting close!

[coco] 11/12/2008 16:16

Its there time to buy

[sakamuka] 11/12/2008 15:34

The 120 barrier is proving a tough cookie, still confident it'll be broken today though!